The Punters In-Play Blog: Rose all set to bloom

Justin Rose - Set to win at East Lake?
With just a round to go at the FedEx Cup deciding Tour Championship, our man runs the rule over the main contenders. Who does Steve fancy to win at East Lake?
10:10 - September 23, 2012
This hasn't been an easy event from the start and with a round to go it's still a tricky puzzle, here's the top-12 on the leaderboard, with prices to back, as at 10.00am.
Justin Rose -8 3.7011/4
Brandt Snedeker -8 4.3100/30
Ryan Moore -6 14.5n/a
Rory McIlroy -5 6.611/2
Jim Furyk -5 20.019/1
Bubba Watson -5 17.016/1
Tiger Woods -4 13.012/1
Matt Kuchar -4 38.037/1
Bo Van Pelt -4 38.037/1
Robert Garrigus -4 48.047/1
Luke Donald -3 60.059/1
Zach Johnson -3 80.079/1
-1 and 270.0269/1 Bar
Justin Rose heads the market and rightly so, he has a lot going for him and he looks a very fair price to me. Rose has always shown a penchant for Donald Ross designed courses but in his previous three visits to East Lake, he's failed to finish inside the top-ten. I dismissed him before kick off as he hadn't been putting well of late either but he's found some form with the flatstick this week and that's why he's tied for the lead.
On each of his previous three visits, he's finished with rounds of 67 and a repeat of that feat would surely do the trick. For Rose to win the FedEx Cup, Rory McIlroy would need to finish worse than 17th. That isn't going to happen and the fact that he doesn't have the added distraction of the FedEx Cup is a big plus.
After a quite brilliant third round 64, Brandt Snedeker has given himself a great chance to win both the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup. As one of the top-five in the FedEx Cup standings at the start of the week, if he wins the event, he's guaranteed to win the FedEx Cup and in all likelihood, the pressure is going to be far too intense for the affable American.
He's a three-time winner on the PGA Tour but all three wins have come from off the pace. He's never won from any closer than five off the lead with a round to go and when he's led, been tied for the lead, or even been within one or two of it, he's been dire. He's a likable character but I can see him struggling quite badly today, which is one of the reasons I like Rose.
Ryan Moore's record in-contention is as equally poor as Brandt's and he too makes no appeal.
You'd have to be an idiot to write off world number one Rory McIlroy and I'm certainly not going to. A win would rubberstamp a fantastic season but I have enough niggles to turn my nose up at 6.611/2. I fancy he'll win the FedEx Cup and his current price in that market of 1.824/5 is perfectly fair but he needs to improve on his first three rounds to win this event.
It's really hard to prosper at East Lake on your first appearance and in the last three years, only one debutant has finished in the top-five. You certainly need to putt well and Rory isn't doing that. So far he's shot consistent rounds of 69-68-68 and if he gets the putter working better he can improve on that but that's enough of an if for me to favour others at the prices.
Jim Furyk had played typically consistent, neat and tidy quality golf all week, until he reached the 17th yesterday and drove into the water. Playing three off the tee, he went anti-water and found the rough and from there he made a triple-bogey seven. If he starts like he did on Friday, when he made seven straight threes, he could be a factor but he's far more likely to go the other way now.
In addition to a small play on Rose, I've had speculative little wagers on two others and the first one of the pair is Bubba Watson. The mercurial Masters champ made a mess of the 16th yesterday but other than that he played uncharacteristic steady golf. He can go one way or the other today but I don't expect a repeat of yesterday's plod. He has the scope to go low, hasn't the distraction of the FedEx Cup (like Rose - he needs lots of help from McIlroy) and at 17.016/1, I thought he was a sporting price.
I've also had a tiny wager on Robert Garrigus at 50.049/1, who for a change, is putting quite well, and I haven't given up on my Luke Donald bet either. Like Snedeker, Donald is a better Sunday performer when coming from way off the pace.
If anyone else takes the title I'm heading for a poor week but whatever happens, I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief.
08:30 - September 22, 2012
Tiger Woods started day two tied for the lead with Justin Rose but he set the tone for the day with a bogey at the opening hole. The consistent and reliable Woods is a thing of the past it seems and after a scruffy three over-par 73, he's dropped 11 places down to a tie for 12th.
Going in the opposite direction, from tied 12th after day one to the lead after round two, Jim Furyk opened up his second round with seven straight threes! He birdied seven of the first 10 holes and although he finished with three bogeys in his last six, now on -7, he leads Justin Rose by one, Bubba Watson and Bo Van Pelt by two and Tiger by six!
Of the five players that held their FedEx Cup fate in their own hands, it's world number one, Rory McIlroy, who's holding his nerve the best. In addition to Tiger, Nick Watney is having a torrid week and after rounds of 75 and 74, he props up the field. Nobody has missed more fairways than my man, Phil Mickelson, and his putting touch has deserted him too and Brandt Snedeker, on -2, trails Rory by one.
I very nearly layed Rory to win the FedEx Cup before the Tour Championship started, at a shade over 2.56/4, but I'm glad I didn't. With his four closest pursuers all in his wake, he's now a firm odds-on favourite. Ranked 21st for driving accuracy and 17th for putting so far this week, I don't fancy him to win the Tour Championship but with the other four struggling, he's certainly on target to take the big bucks.
Furyk puts his position atop of the leaderboard down to his straight hitting off the tee but given he only ranks 10th for driving accuracy and that Zach Johnson is the only player in the top-nine ranked in the top-10 for that stat, I'm still not convinced it's imperative. You certainly have to putt well though; the top-four on the leaderboard are all ranked in the top-five for putts per round.
I'm really enjoying the event and it's going to be fascinating to see whether Tiger recovers after such a poor effort yesterday, and whether Rory can push on today and cement his position on top of the standings, but I'm going to hang fire betting wise. With such a condensed high quality field I've found it hard from the very first look and I'm thankful that I didn't throw too much cash at the event.
My pre-event picks have been poor to say the least and my two In-Running picks have fared no better. There are occasions when you just need to put the spade down and stop digging and this is one of them. I'm going to leave it alone for now and see what happens in round three.
13:20 - September 21, 2012
My Luke Donald wager has been matched this morning and I've also backed Hunter Mahan. I know he's not been in very good form of late but having not been picked for next week's Ryder Cup, he has something to prove and at odds of 55.054/1, trailing by just two strokes, he's simply too big a price to ignore.
I was very tempted to get further involved elsewhere but I've resisted. It's hard to see why multiple tour winner, Steve Stricker, one off the lead on -3, is a bigger price than Bo Van Pelt, a winner only once on tour, on the same score, and as I came close to backing Zach Johnson before the off at around 40.039/1, at just ten points shorter, following an opening two under-par 68, I was again tempted to back him but I've held off for now.
As I've done with Donald, don't be afraid to back someone from off the early pace. Since the greens were changed after the 2007 event, slow starters have prospered. In 2010, Jim Furyk was just one off the pace after the first round and he led the event thereafter but the other three winners have made up lots of ground...
Last year's winner, Bill Haas, trailed by four after round one, 2009 champ, Phil Mickelson, was seven off the lead and Camilo Villegas was eight back in 2008. And he beat Sergio Garcia in a playoff, who himself trailed by six after the first round! With such a small field, a very good round can see a player readily zoom up from the bottom half of the leaderboard and into the mix, I just hope today's charger is Donald.
23:10 - September 20, 2012
Just days after Greg Norman's nonsensical claim that Tiger Woods was intimidated by world number one Rory McIlroy (now sarcastically dubbed The Intimidator), the world number two has put himself in a great position to bite back and to claim both the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup.
It looked for most of day one as though Justin Rose was going to lead overnight but a tenacious Woods was having none of it and with back-to-back birdies at 15 and16, he drew alongside the Englishman on -4. And he gave himself a great chance on 18 too, where he missed for birdie from just 11 feet.
Tiger looks like he means business this week and those that took 7.06/1 before the off will be on good terms with themselves.
My main man, Phil Mickelson, played out a pretty bog-standard Phil Mickelson round. He drove the ball atrociously and found just a couple of fairways all day but recovered majestically, missing just one green. In fact, he gave himself plenty of chances to score and the real damage was done on the greens. Birdie putt after birdie putt slipped by the hole and there were two costly three-putt bogeys to boot, so all in all, it was a disappointing start. That said, on -1, and alongside Rory, who he'll partner tomorrow, he's certainly not out of it just yet.
With just 30 competitors, it's not easy to discount anyone at this early stage and as I pointed out in my preview, it's possible to make up ground after a slow start. With that in mind, I've input a small, ambitious and as yet unmatched bet on Luke Donald, who after a one over-par opening round, trails by five.
I'll take a proper look tomorrow morning and if I make any further trades before kick-off I'll be sure to post it here.
Selections:
Phil Mickelson to win the FedEx Cup @ 13.5
And to win the Tour Championship:
Phil Mickelson @ 15.0
Keegan Bradley @ 48.0
John Huh @ 140.0
In-Play Bets
Hunter Mahan @ 55.054/1
Luke Donald @ 65.064/1
Justin Rose @ 3.814/5
Bubba Watson @ 17.016/1
Robert Garrigus @ 50.049/1