Ryan Moore: My views on Sunday at Longchamp

Longchamp is the place to be on Sunday
Ryan Moore heads across La Manche as he assesses four competitive races at Longchamp on Sunday...
13:30
When I was over in Japan last year, Orfevre had a massive reputation and he clearly is a horse with an enormous amount of ability too. The Japanese have sent some top class horses over here in the past (Workforce just touched off Nakayama Festa in the 2010 Arc) and he could yet be the best of them. He clearly has his faults - he can pull very hard on occasions, and prove wayward as a result - but he has already shown a level of form that puts him bang in the Arc picture. He was back to winning form in a Group 1 last time, and the horse he beat by two lengths there, Rulership, had previously won the QEII Cup at Sha Tin by nearly four lengths, a race in which I finished down the field in on Chinchon. So that was some win. As he has a pacemaker in here, that suggests to me that he could be pretty straight. Meandre has had a break since winning a Group 1 in Germany in July and, while Andre Fabre always uses these trials as a stepping stone, he wins his fair share too. Fiorente has a fair bit to find if the principals run to form but I can tell you that he is working really well at home and is in the best shape he has been in all season. I was on board when Joshua Tree won at Deauville last time, but this is a stiffer test altogether. I am not privy to how fit Orfevre is but I think it is a good move for connections to book a home rider and I would be disappointed if he wasn't good enough to win this.
14:40
This looks a very tight Prix Niel. Very little between them on form and luck in running and fitness will probably dictates who wins, rather than the best horse. Last Train is just the kind of progressive horse with which Andre Fabre excels, and Saonois is being given the Classic French Arc preparation, having been left alone since winning a very rough French Derby. Bayrir is probably the horse that has most impressed me of these so far, but that was in the Secretariat in Arlington last month and that tells me that the Arc was an afterthought. He could be the sharpest and fittest horse here though and the answer to this puzzle, but it is a bit of a guessing game.
15:10
With Great Heavens a non-runner, I think I would be tempted to narrow the Vermeille down to two, Shareta and Galikova. But that may be a bit too simplistic as clearly there are no end of progressive fillies in here. But Shareta looks the likeliest winner to me. People tend to forget what an excellent second she was to Danedream in the Arc last year and she has been steadily returning to that level of form this season, and she put up an excellent effort to beat The Fugue in the Yorkshire Oaks last time. Galikova has been a bit of a talking horse in the past but she has backed it up with some high class performances on occasions, and there was certainly nothing wrong with her third to Snow Fairy in the Romanet last time. She is equally effective over this longer trip.
15:45
Only four in the Moulin, incredibly disappointing for such a valuable and prestigious Group 1. Caspar Netscher ran his best race yet when fifth, beaten only two lengths, in the Marois. And Sarkiyla looks a progressive horse of the Aga's. But surely this concerns only two horses, and a great tactical race is in store too. I think we can expect Frankie to try and poach a soft lead; he loves doing that round here. Farhh has never made the running before but this race looks set up for Frankie to take the initiative; Farhh may prove to be a "nearly horse" in top class Group 1 races but he is a Group 1 performer and he travelled really well before predictably being steamrollered by Frankel at York last time, and only got outbattled/outstayed by Nathaniel late on in the Eclipse. He could be one of those horses whose best trip is over 1m1f though, and in Moonlight Cloud he meets a horse with a great turn of foot and who may find 1m round here ideal. She met all the trouble going when fourth in the Marois last time and had earlier won the Gheest by five lengths, and that change of gear could win the day for her here. But Frankie will be alive to that and it will be fascinating to see how he plays it here.