US Open 2014: Nishikori the close call in side markets

Cilic (pictured) was thumped by Nishikori on clay in April, but still led the ace count

Looking to maintain his record in a profitable column, Jack Houghton thinks Kei Nishikori can win what will be a close match with Marin Cilic, where the statistics show it's very likely we'll see a tie break...

When Juan Martin del Potro beat Federer to take the 2009 US Open - the first time in 19 majors that one of either Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal or Novak Djokovic had not won a grand-slam title - many announced a generational shift in the game: no longer would the three of them dominate the game; a new cohort would now brush them aside. Given that, at the time, Federer - the eldest of the three - had only just turned 28, the pronouncements seemed a little sensationalist, and so it proved: Andy Murray might have elbowed his way into the triumvirate, so that the Big Three became the Big Four, but between them they went on to claim the next 16 majors.

In fairness, though, there were signs of a shift, even if it wasn't as significant as some originally predicted. The likes of Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer started to pop-up in grand-slam finals; the invincible started to look a little fallible. Come 2014, and the shift seems to have become a tipping point, as we now know that the year will end with two debutant grand-slam winners. Perhaps most significantly, this is the first time since the 2005 Australian Open that none of the Big Four have been in a grand-slam final.

Of the finalists, Nishikori is the rightful favourite at around 1.834/5, but as well as supporting him in the outright market, there is value to be had in assessing the relative chances of these two debutants in the side markets.

Most Aces
To date, head-to-head, the pair has averaged a combined ace total of 14 a match. Cilic has served more on six occasions (86%), Nishikori has never served more, although when they met at the 2010 US Open, they did serve 13 aces each for a tie (14%). All this tells us that Cilic should be around the 1.162/13 mark to serve most aces. And given that, when the two of these last met - when Nishikori thumped Cilic on clay in Barcelona - the Croatian still managed to top the ace count, I'm inclined to think those odds should even be a little shorter. Given the market is still very illiquid - because, presumably, it's not viewed as much of a contest - I won't be recommending a bet, but I'd happily be a layer of Nishikori at any price up to 5.04/1.

Tie Break
In a total of 21 sets, these two have played four tie-breaks, or about one every five sets played. That rates this combination as one of the match-ups among the top players to contest a tie break. Assuming they play four or five sets in the final, those statistics translate to odds of around 1.3130/100 that we'll see a tie-break in Sunday's final, and 4.216/5 that we won't. The market, even in the early stages, is underplaying the likelihood of a tie break, so I'll be backing "Yes" at 1.51/2.

Set Betting
With a head-to-head of 5-2 in Nishikori's favour, the first Asian representative in a men's grand-slam final looks to have solid claims of taking the title, but this seeming clear advantage belies the fact that their matches to date have been very competitive. Of the 25 sets they've had available to play in their matches, they've used 24 of them, a whopping 84%, which marks them out as producing some of the most competitive matches of any of the top players head-to-head. What's more, if you look only at their last five hard-court matches, that percentage leaps to 95%. It's entirely possible that, under the bright lights of a grand-slam final, one of these first-timers will crumble, but if they both bring their normal game, we can expect a close match which goes to five sets.

On this basis, I'll be backing Nishikori to win 3-2 at 7.06/1.

Recommended Bets
5pts back Yes at 1.51/2 in Tie Break Played? Market
2pts back Nishikori 3-2 in Set Betting Market