The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Liverpool

Can Mauricio Pochettino keep Tottenham at the top?

Tottenham have started the season well, but a match with Liverpool represents the first real test for Mauricio Pochettino. Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle, while Alan Thompson discusses the odds...

Tottenham v Liverpool
Sunday 13:30, Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Tottenham 2.727/4, Liverpool 2.89/5, The Draw 3.613/5

Liverpool thrashed Tottenham twice last season, winning 4-0 at Anfield and 5-0 at White Hart Lane - but things will be much tougher for Brendan Rodgers' side this time around.

Tottenham have regrouped and have looked impressive in the first two games under Mauricio Pochettino, sitting top of the Premier League after two games. More impressive than the results is the feeling that the players have grasped what Pochettino demands - a high defensive line, good pressing, and a mixture of patient possession play and more direct attacking.

It should be a fascinating tactical battle against a Liverpool side that also conforms to that description. Although it's been a stuttering start to the campaign for the Reds, with a disappointing defeat to Manchester City on Monday evening, Liverpool have reacted well to the loss of Luis Suarez, at least in terms of the transfer market. For the first time, we could witness some of the players brought into replace him from the start - Mario Balotelli, Rickie Lambert, Lazar Markovic and Mario Balotelli are all in contention, although Adam Lallana will make the bench at best.

Rodgers' major decision is what formation to deploy. Against a Tottenham side boasting plenty of good midfielders, it seems most likely he'll stick with the three-man midfield he used at Manchester City. Steven Gerrard will sit deep with Jordan Henderson just ahead, although it feels like Rodgers can afford to be more ambitious with the final midfield slot, moving Coutinho into that role, to create space for another attacker to be used alongside Raheem Sterling and Daniel Sturridge.

While it feels like Balotelli would be best starting from the bench on his debut, it's difficult to see the point of Rodgers playing Lambert, while Markovic feels like a supersub at the moment. Balotelli seems a natural fit in Liverpool system for this game, and Rodgers might feel he can select a midfield diamond with Sterling just behind Balotelli and Sturridge.

Spurs' defence is likely to play high up the pitch, and Rodgers will want as many possible runners getting in behind. The narrowness would risk leaving the Spurs full-backs free, but neither Danny Rose nor Eric Dier need to be tracked particularly closely.

Indeed, with both sides likely to defend high up the pitch, I think there's a decent chance of a red card in this fixture, as both look to work the ball in behind with through-balls and midfield runners. Defenders will be forced to make quick decisions and could risk being dismissed if they mistime a challenge. I'll back a red card to be shown, at 5.04/1.

Liverpool's left side of their defence was particularly vulnerable against Manchester City, with all three concessions coming from the zone featuring Dejan Lovren and Alberto Moreno - two newcomers who probably don't even speak the same language at this point.

Spurs are likely to focus their attacking down that side, although with Nacer Chadli, Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen all capable of playing left, right or centrally, it's tough to predict the major beneficiary.

Predicting a likely winner remains tough considering we're yet to witness Pochettino's Spurs against top-class opposition, and we don't know how many newcomers, if any, Rodgers will incorporate into his side. It's much easier to predict the pattern of the game than the actual winner, which means I'll steer clear of any result-based betting, and stick to the sending-off bet outlined above.

Recommended Bet
Back a red card to be shown at 5.04/1

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

Last season Liverpool humiliated Tottenham not only in this fixture - a 5-0 destruction that ended AVB's reign at White Hart Lane - but they also put four past them at Anfield without reply. However, Spurs have started this campaign well, winning their opening two games without conceding a goal and disposing of AEL Limassol easily enough to ensure their Europa League status. The worry is when Tottenham faced the top six last season home or away their record was W1 D2 L7. They conceded 27 goals and scored only three times, failing to find the back of the net in seven of the ten fixtures.

Last season Liverpool topped the stats away from home both in average goals scored (2.53) and total goals per game (averaged 4.21) – 84% of Liverpool’s away games last season ended up over 2.5 goals and of course last week they shared four goals at the Etihad. Obviously, those impressive numbers had a lot to do with the quality of a certain Luis Suarez but Liverpool still have plenty of attacking options in their team, including their latest recruit Mario Balotelli.

Because of Tottenham’s poor win record against the top six sides I will be backing Liverpool in the DRAW NO BET market at 2.0. The last six renewals of this fixture have seen over 2.5 goals and there is nothing to suggest this will be any different. However, the current odds available on over 2.5 goals don’t offer much appeal hovering around the 1.7 mark so I will be placing an in-running order to try and get matched at 2.3.