Switzerland & France favourites to make the 2014 Davis Cup final

Switzerland & France favourites to make the 2014 Davis Cup final

By Dan Weston Sep 5, 2014

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Switzerland and France are favoured with Pinnacle Sports to beat Italy and the Czech Republic in their Davis Cup semi-final’s scheduled for the 12-14th September. Read this Davis Cup semi-final betting preview for a breakdown of the key players stats before choosing your winner.

The format of the Davis Cup is slightly different to the women’s Fed Cup. The Davis Cup has the doubles scheduled on the Saturday (13th September), in-between the two singles days on the Friday and Sunday. The consequence of this is that doubles specialists get a guaranteed live rubber, therefore ensuring a squad has strong doubles players, is even more necessary.

France take-on two-time defending champions the Czech Republic on clay at Roland Garros, while Switzerland host Italy at the Palexpo in Geneva. The nations have played each other numerous times before, with France and the Czech Republic splitting 14 ties down the middle, while Italy have a slight 3-2 historical edge over Switzerland. However, bettors shouldn’t rely too much on historical performances, as circumstances change year-on-year.

Strength in depth is a crucial facet in the Davis Cup, with nations often unable to call upon their best players for a variety of reasons, however while having an elite player is clearly a great advantage, an over-reliance on them can cause huge difficulties should they be unavailable or injured for a tie.

Davis Cup Semi-final 1: France vs. Czech Republic (Red clay)

French squad stats (Based on the last 12 months)

Player

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Clay court W/L

Clay service hold %

Clay opponent break %

Clay combined %

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

10

136

8-4

82.6

21.7

104.3

Richard Gasquet

14

225

2-1

76.7

28.6

105.3

Gael Monfils

24

N/A

7-3

74.8

35.1

109.9

Julien Benneteau

28

10

1-3

70.4

18.1

88.5

Czech Republic squad stats (Based on the last 12 months)

Player

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Clay court W/L

Clay service hold %

Clay opponent break %

Clay combined %

Tomas Berdych

7

158

11-5

79.5

29.4

108.9

Lukas Rosol

27

42

17-9

78.7

23

101.7

Radek Stepanek

39

11

4-5

73.9

25.4

99.3

Jiri Vesely

75

206

7-8

79.1

20.8

99.9

The Czech Republic have had an easier route to the semi-final, with a 5-0 victory over Japan in the previous round, while France came back from a 2-0 deficit to get the better of Germany, 3-2.

We can see from the above statistics that the Czech Republic’s players have played more matches on clay in the last 12 months, but have worse stats than their French opponents. Tsonga, Gasquet – who missed a large proportion of the clay court season through injury – and Monfils have strong clay court stats, while only Tomas Berdych can be considered an equal in the Czech squad.

French captain Arnaud Clement faces a difficult choice between Gasquet and Monfils to be the second singles player, in addition to the in-form Tsonga. With Gasquet perhaps not totally fit after suffering from injuries in recent months, it could be the case that they will share those duties.

Jaroslav Navratil, the Czech captain, also has a difficult choice regarding who will partner senior player Tomas Berdych, who missed the Japanese clash. Lukas Rosol has the next best stats and looks to be a solid choice, although veteran Radek Stepanek and the promising youngster Jiri Vesely also have claims. The best of five set format is unlikely to favour Stepanek, with the 35-year-old struggling in longer matches, and Vesely may be considered too inexperienced at this point to play a big part.

In the doubles, France must do without specialist doubles player Mickael Llodra, who teamed up with Julien Benneteau to defeat Andreas Begemann and Tobias Kamke in the quarter-finals. It’s unclear who Clement will choose for a doubles pairing, with Gasquet and Tsonga pairing up in the previous round against Australia. Berdych and Stepanek played doubles for the Czechs in the first round against the Netherlands, and in the absence of Berdych, Rosol stepped in. Stepanek looks a certain pick for one doubles berth, with Berdych’s fitness – after a long run in the US Open – being questionable.

Davis Cup Semi-final 2: Switzerland vs. Italy (Indoor hard court)

Switzerland squad stats (Based on the last 12 months)

Player

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Clay court W/L

Clay service hold %

Clay opponent break %

Clay combined %

Roger Federer

3

111

47-11

88

28.5

116.5

Stan Wawrinka

4

133

34-12

86.2

23.1

109.3

Marco Chiudinelli

167

202

0-4

78.3

19.7

98

Michael Lammer

454

640

0-0

N/A

N/A

N/A

Italian squad stats (Based on the last 12 months)

Player

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Clay court W/L

Clay service hold %

Clay opponent break %

Clay combined %

Fabio Fognini

17

52

20-14

71.5

27.3

98.8

Andreas Seppi

49

91

14-18

75.9

22.7

98.6

Paolo Lorenzi

78

507

3-7

69.1

19.5

88.6

Simone Bolelli

85

171

1-1

85.1

10.4

95.5

This meeting should be a completely different match-up to the first semi-final, with both teams effectively having two players who are much better than their team-mates on the surface, and the other two players – particularly in the case of Switzerland – making up the numbers, from a singles perspective.

However, the Swiss team boast far superior players on the Indoor Hard surface, with Federer and Wawrinka boasting much better stats than the two leading Italians, Fognini and Seppi, who prefer to play on clay, as do the other two Italians. On that basis, it’s highly unsurprising that the Swiss are heavy favourites for the tie, and also the tournament.

Having said that, Wawrinka has a mixed record in Davis Cup singles, and the world number four doesn’t have the best record in his home country. In the last couple of years, he’s lost in Davis Cup matches in Switzerland to Andrey Golubev with a starting price of 1.057, Tomas Berdych (2.269), and Mardy Fish (1.387). Certainly this would indicate that Fognini at least could push Wawrinka if he isn’t playing to his usual level.

Federer, who prefers quick surfaces, should be very difficult to beat here and it’s likely that the Italians will need to take two singles from Wawrinka, as well as the doubles rubber, to prevail.

In the doubles, Federer and Wawrinka teamed up against Kazakhstan in the previous round and lost to Golubev and Nedovyesov in four tight sets. Lammer and Chiudinelli were selected by captain Severin Luthi in the first round against Serbia – after Federer and Wawrinka won their initial singles matches – and got the better of Krajinovic and Zimonjic in four sets. It may be the case that they will play doubles again if Federer and Wawrinka take the opening day’s singles matches, in an attempt to conserve their energy for Sunday’s singles.

For the Italians, Fognini and Bolelli lost to Andy Murray and Colin Fleming in the previous round, but they did get the better of Schwank and Zeballos in the first round win over Argentina. It would appear they are captain Corradi Barazzutti’s preferred doubles selection and will almost certainly need to defeat the Swiss pairing if the Italians are to reach the final.

Click here for the latest Davis Cup odds.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found atwww.tennisratings.co.uk.

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