Read our live NFL Q&A with the Head of North American Sports

Read our live NFL Q&A with the Head of North American Sports

By Gary Wise Sep 5, 2014

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For the start of the 2014-15 NFL season, we hosted a live Q&A with our Head of North American Sports to answer a number of NFL betting related questions. Below, you will find a transcript of how the discussion unfolded.

Q1. From @pinnyhoops: How can I use the weather information to make better totals bets?

HNAS: By getting early information. You’ll see adjustments to our lines once information comes out, but you still need to be careful; lousy weather doesn’t always = under. We’ve been burned by that misconception more than a few times

Q2. From @NotThatTricky: Scoreboard on http://espn.go.com/espn/betting/  appears to be using @PinnacleSports lines. Progress?

HNAS: Is it? I’m inclined to say yes it’s progress, but I hadn’t heard it so I can’t confirm it. Would be cool though. Can’t complain about free advertising on a site with as much exposure as ESPN:)

@NotThatTricky: It’s not clear they’re from #pinnacle unless you already know about these sort of things.

HNAS: It wouldn’t be a bad move on their part. I think our sharpness provides credibility to those lines.

Q3. From @Raceradar: On analysis, is it better to put less weight on the passing & put more on rushing & defensive discipline?

HNAS: Interesting question. I believe you need to incorporate both…it’s still a passing league and teams are shifting away from run-heavy offenses. Need to put equal weight on all phases of the game and find the strength of each team.

Q4. From @SBRreview: Will there be fixed wagering limits on NFL in-play markets?

HNAS: We have limits on live betting and will adhere to them at a minimum. However, we may at certain times increase limits for marquee games or as we see fit for certain games.

Q5. From email: With the Seahawks record at (home field) CenturyLink, how does HFA factor into lines compared to the rest of the league?

HNAS: Like any game, HFA is taken into account and incorporated into the line. As it’s week 1 and fresh off a Superbowl victory, Seattle, which is historically tough at home, will be extra raucous. That’s also taken into account when setting the line.

Q6. From @GDon44: Do you expect lines to move a lot more early in the season until more info on teams comes in?

HNAS: Absolutely. We need time like anyone else to figure out which surprises are legit. That means the lines aren’t as stable as they would be later in the season. Same is true of any sport.

@GDon44: Do you think that provides more value for bettors or more concerns?

HNAS: it can be more value for those that take the time to evaluate and analyze, but it can also be concerning for those taking shots in the dark or making assumptions.

Q7. From email: How much does a team’s popularity factor into markets? Enough to move handicaps?

HNAS: That’s tricky. Teams in high-population markets with good teams can move the markets, but our clientele is sharper than the average sportsbook’s, so our lines won’t move as much in that way.

Q8. From email (follow up): Which teams get the biggest bumps that way?

HNAS: It’s what you’d expect. Teams that make the Superbowl, that have national brands, that are fun to watch. It depends on he spread though…if you have the Broncos as a 14-point favourite, our clientele know there may be value on the dog because of the inflated line.

Q9. From @bernieromero21: How does stronger enforcement of pass interference/illegal contact impact week 1 lines?

HNAS: That’s a good question…hadn’t really considered it. I don’t think it affects the spread much because it’s a two-way game, but you may see an increase in the total points scored per game. We’ll watch that through the season and see if it has an effect, and whether it’s called as much as in pre-season.

Q10. From email: Which team’s chances are being the most underrated by your Superbowl futures? Most overrated?

HNAS: Teams like the Patriots that are good every year are a little overrated because of public perception. Teams like the Browns or Raiders are typically underrated because of their lack of past success and progression. Odds don’t always reflect the chances of a team winning…they reflect the public perception of those chances. Those can be two very different things.

Q11. From email: What is one factor in NFL betting that you think bettors undervalue?

HNAS: They undervalue certain numbers in NFL. 7 and 3 are incredibly important. The jump from 7 to 8 is bigger than the jump from 8 to 10. The higher the number, the less value.

@Craigfitzsimon1: It’s what they overrate: Especially the delusion that a team who finished last year strongly is sure to pick up where they left off

HNAS: Generally right. Every team has different personnel year in year out. Have to judge the current personnel. Other teams will improve. The biggest thing is adjustments.

Q12. From @Chidondollars: What is your maximum limit in NFL?

HNAS: Our maximum limit? I guess you could say we don’t have one because the more volume we see the higher limits will go, but typically, our base max is $30,000, with marquee games and volume often sending it higher. For example, tonight’s game is already at $50,000.

(**Note: the game was still more than five hours away at the time**)

Q13. From @NFLbyNumbers: What’s your thoughts on the rookie QB’s? Will Jacksonville & Minnesota be rated higher or lower when Bortles & Bridgewater come in?

HNAS: it’s really hard to say right now. As important as a QB is, it’s still based on team performance. There has to be a reason the QB is coming in. It may not have as much of an effect as you’d think.

Q14. From @dalkegeedz: Will @PinnacleSports allow bettors to buy off/on on NFL totals >50 this season? What about >60?

HNAS: 50 yes. 60 no. Right now, 53 is the highest right now.

Q15. From ddivecch: What is your biggest week 1 liability?

HNAS: I can tell you guys a lot, but I can’t tell you that.

Q16. From @Ben_E89: How come you don’t offer player props?

HNAS: General interest. There’s not enough interest for every game. If we found it was there, we’d start offering them.

(Note: You can always voice that interest at market-request@pinnaclesports.com)

Q17. From email: If you were betting NFL, which experts would you follow/listen to?

HNAS: I listen to analysts. Sports analysts, not betting guys. Analysts know about injuries, and the up-close info on teams. That’s where the value is in evaluating a team.

@Olvierlav: Analysts are often generators of public perception.

HNAS: It’s up to you to decipher the information from the analyst. That’s where value is. Using multiple sources helps too.

Q18. From @ddivecch: If you had to make a wager on a spread this weekend what would it be and brief explanation why if you can?

HNAS: I’m a huge Eagles fanJ

Q19. From @NFLbynumbers: How about difference between Sam Bradford and Sean Hill? Did you adjust season odds and win totals?:P

HNAS: Let me have a look… It wasn’t that big of an influence, because of the division they play in and their chances of getting out.

HNAS: Guys, I’ve got to get going. This has been a lot of fun. Thanks for the questions; we’ll do it again some time.

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