How do young players perform after breaking the top 100?

How do young players perform after breaking the top 100?

By Dan Weston Aug 29, 2014

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Analysing the future prospects of young lower-ranked players should be of great interest to tennis bettors, as the markets will have less knowledge of these ‘unexposed’ players than regular ATP or WTA players. This tennis betting strategy article assesses the records of ATP players born in 1990 or after, as they break into the top 100.

Prior to breaking into the top 100, most players will be plying their trade in the second tier of tennis events on the Challenger Tour. Typically, as a player progresses and breaks into or around the top 100, they will have opportunities to play lower level ATP events, in 250s, sometimes 500s and possibly even direct entry into the big fields of Grand Slam tournaments. On that basis, it is clear that breaking into the top 100 starts to open doors for players, both from a financial, and a career perspective.

If a player breaks into the top 100 for the first time, it’s logical to think that their career is progressing well. They will have achieved good results on the Challenger Tour to propel them to this ranking bracket, and therefore should not be lacking confidence when they make their debut into the top 100.

It is reasonable to assume that this confidence – as well as the shock value against an unknown opponent – might enable them to obtain positive results against higher ranked players. This would especially be the case for younger players breaking through, as these players are more likely to have further improvement potential than older players. Therefore by identifying these players bettors may have the opportunity to gain an edge over the ‘undeveloped’market.

The following table illustrates the records of all ATP players born in 1990 or after, who have broken into the top 100, for the first ten main tour matches following this landmark. Only matches with at least one set were included, and all prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices:-

Player

Current Rank

W/L

Highest Priced Win

P/L

ROI

Raonic

6

9-1

Verdasco, 2.750

673

67.3

Dimitrov

8

3-7

Baghdatis, 2.675

-413

-41.3

Thiem

44

6-4

Simon, 2.619

141

14.1

Pospisil V

45

7-3

Stepanek, 2.960

414

41.4

Janowicz

52

7-3

Murray, 12.658

1878

187.8

Sock

55

4-6

Sisjling, 2.014

-340

-34

Kyrgios

59

2-1

Youzhny, 2.341

122

40.7

Lajovic

60

5-5

Delbonis, 4.736

380

38

Goffin

62

5-5

Tomic, 4.512

342

34.2

Delbonis

66

7-3

Federer, 6.814

1017

101.7

Tomic

67

5-5

Troicki, 3.619

83

8.3

Carreno-Busta

75

2-8

Bogomolov Jr, 2.469

-585

-58.5

Vesely

76

2-8

Matosevic, 2.655

-623

-62.3

Struff

77

4-6

Benneteau, 3.375

-123

-12.3

Schwartzman

79

1-3

A. Zverev, 1.835

-216

-54

Rola

87

3-7

Odesnik, 2.302

-487

-48.7

Kuznetsov Andrey

97

2-8

Monaco, 4.025

-376

-37.6

Klahn

117

1-9

Brands, 2.684

-732

-73.2

Berankis

118

7-3

F. Mayer, 2.644

242

24.2

Donskoy

119

4-6

Youzhny, 3.702

-150

-15

Kudla

122

2-8

Young, 2.469

-589

-58.9

Pella

154

4-6

Tipsarevic, 4.693

365

36.5

Harrison

184

6-4

Lu, 1.985

-54

-5.4

Rufin

343

5-5

Monaco, 3.852

207

20.7

Stebe

407

2-8

Cipolla, 1.975

-684

-68.4

Overall

105-129

492

2.08

The overall data, highlights a slight profit of 492 from the sample (2.08% return on investment) is very strong for a blind-backed scenario. This indicates that the market does slightly under-estimate young players upon their breakthrough to the top 100.

What bettors should also notice is the immediate success of some players when they start their ATP careers – Federico Delbonis defeated Roger Federer on the way to the final of Hamburg in 2013, whilst Jerzy Janowicz boosted his ranking from 69 to 26 after reaching the Paris Masters final, defeating Andy Murray on the way.

However, the best record went to Milos Raonic, with the current world number six winning nine of his ten matches after breaking the top 100 – including winning the San Jose event, before finishing second in Memphis.

It is also worth noting that out of the 11 top 70 players in the sample, only Grigor Dimitrov (3-7) and Jack Sock (4-6) had negative win-loss records. Conversely, only 3 out of 13 players currently ranked outside the top 70 did not have a negative record in their first ten ATP matches after being ranked in the top 100. This would indicate that if a player does not make an immediate impact on tour, they will eventually struggle to do so, and this in itself is very useful information for bettors.

The two players with a positive first ten match records who have slipped outside the top 100 are Ricardas Berankis and Ryan Harrison. Both were tipped by many to have rich potential, and their progress since their initial breakthrough has been classed very disappointing. The problem for Berankis is obvious – he’s only converted 25.3% of break points on the ATP Tour in the last 12 months, despite winning 34.3% of return points. With the average ATP player converting 2.8% more break points than return points, he’s 11.8% down on expectation, and this has led to him breaking opponents a mere 14.4% of the time in that time period.

Finally, it’s fascinating to see that the four US players sampled – Jack Sock, Bradley Klahn, Denis Kudla and the aforementioned Harrison – had negative records when breaking the top 100. With the media debating the poor quality of US Challenger events, this would indicate that competing in these events isn’t suitable preparation for the main tour. Blaz Rola could also join that foursome, with the Slovenian coming through the US College system. It is certainly worth bearing this in mind when future US based players break the top 100.

This article highlights that bettors can find potential value when betting on young players who initially break into the top 100 of the ATP. Bettors should use this analysis alongside their own research to develop a potentially successful tennis betting strategy on ‘unexposed’ players the market knows little about.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found atwww.tennisratings.co.uk.

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