Why you should bet the Premier League handicap

Why you should bet the Premier League handicap

By Michael Gales Aug 15, 2014

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Understanding how a team performs against their handicap is vital for handicap bettors looking to gain an edge. This article explains why you should bet on the 2014/15 Premier League handicap, and identifies trends you should be aware of.

Understanding soccer handicaps

Before betting on soccer handicap markets bettors should understand the basics. Read this article, which explains the key concepts behind handicap betting and the differences between single and split handicaps to ensure you are in the best position to make a profit from your bet.

Pinnacle Sports’ Premier League handicap table

Once you understand the basics of handicap betting, the potential to make a profit increases. By appreciating how teams perform against the handicap, bettors can identify when teams are undervalued/overvalued by the bookmakers, giving them an opportunity to gain an edge.

Pinnacle Sports’ Premier League handicap table is the perfect tool for bettors to gauge how well EPL teams are performing against market expectations. Visit the table anytime during the season to see which teams are over/underperforming, or on a current good/bad streak.

Stoke City a handicappers dream

Stoke City may not be a fashionable side, however during the last two Premier League seasons they have finished top of the Pinnacle Sports Premier League handicap table. The Potters beat the spread 55.3% and 63.2% of the time in 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively, highlighting that bookmakers have undervalued their ability in recent times.

Given they covered the handicap 7.9% more last term highlights that bookmakers underestimated the affect new manager Mark Hughes – and their significant change in football style – was going to have. Stoke’s home form on the handicap was impressive as they covered in a remarkable 13 of their 19 games. Sharp bettors would have noticed this and looked to back them when they were undervalued.

Having been underrated for two consecutive seasons, will the bookmakers have a better gauge on their relative strength for the 2013/14 season? Bettors must decide if this is the case, or whether or not they will be overvalued as a direct response to the two previous seasons, and therefore look to find value against them?

Streaks: More uncertainty at the beginning of the season

The start of the season creates more uncertainty for bookmakers looking to set a value on a team’s strength. From manager changes, to new tactics and summer signings, the handicap market is more precarious at the start of the campaign.

This is evident when looking at the 2013/14 Premier League season. Streaks - read about streaks here - are more rare on the handicap as bookmakers adjust their strength value for a team on a game-by-game basis – the more games they play the more accurate they should be.

Following the first 19 games in the 2013/14 season only eight streaks – defined as a team either covering the handicap or not, four or more times – were recorded, two of which were West Ham. In comparison the first 19 games resulted in 19 streaks – more than double.

Albeit it over only one season, this proves that the bookmaker struggled to identify the actual strength of certain Premier League teams during the first half of the season. By handicapping Premier League teams better than the bookmakers at the start of the campaign, bettors have a real opportunity to make a betting profit.

New managers & tactics create opportunities

As mentioned earlier, uncertainty on the handicap can be created at the start of the season by the upheaval in preseason – a direct result of new managers, tactics and players.

In 2013/14 Manchester United were the perfect example.

United had endured an offseason of upheaval as manager Sir Alex Ferguson had retired after 26 years in charge and chief executive, David Gill, also left.

David Moyes was asked to manage a team that had won the season before so convincingly, while a new chief executive was brought in to deal with transfers.

What ensued was a disaster as United finished seventh – their worst ever EPL finish – and Moyes was sacked before the end of the campaign. But what did this mean for handicap bettors?

United finished 14th on the handicap table covering in just 44.7% of games highlighting the market had overvalued their strength.

A streak of eight games – starting from the second game of the season – without covering the spread showed that the market believed United were underperforming, however was this true, or were the bookmakers guilty of undervaluing the impact Alex Ferguson had on the team, and therefore, overvaluing United under Moyes?

United were consistently overvalued on the spread at home – covering in just 36.8% of games at Old Trafford – resulting in them having the third worst record. With results not going to plan the pressure built and the atmosphere quickly became toxic. Bettors who realised this before the bookmaker would have made a profit.

With United having gone through another summer of change – a new manager and seven player exits – bettors must judge whether or not there will be another opportunity to gain an edge over the market.

A tale of home and away

When betting on the handicap, bettors should be mindful of teams that perform better at home than on the road, and vice versa.

Last season Sunderland were the second best performing team on the handicap away from home covering in an impressive 57.9% of games. Despite this they only covered 42.1% of all EPL games.

The data highlights that they performed much worse than expected at home, covering in just 26.3% of games. Bettors who kept their own handicap data would have realised Sunderland’s away form on the spread was far superior and bet accordingly.

Sunderland’s handicap performance last season shows the need for bettors to keep their own handicap records so they can identify trends in the data, helping them set their own handicap strength and therefore deciding if a team’s handicap is incorrect.

Click here to see the latest Premier League handicap odds

*Odds subject to change

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