US Open Betting: The Big Four has become the Big One

Roger Federer is in winning form with the Western and Southern Open trophy

Rafael Nadal has withdrawn from the US Open while both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are struggling to find their form. Ralph Ellis says that makes Roger Federer the standout bet for Flushing Meadows...

Jelena, according to the Serbian edition of HELLO! Magazine, wore a gorgeous bespoke gown by Sarah Burton for Alexander McQueen.  It featured a sweetheart neckline and intricate lace around the bodice and hem.

Who knew there was a Serbian edition of HELLO!? But then I suppose there's an edition for just about everywhere, and the exclusive pictures of Novak Djokovic's wedding would have appeared in all of them.

They are lovely snaps, with the sea glistening in the background as the Wimbledon champion and his new bride stand in the magnificent surroundings on the island of Sveti Stefan in Montenegro. Three days of celebrations followed, according to the gushing words that accompany the pictures.

What the glossy magazine doesn't tell you is that after the celebrations finished, the troubles started for the world number one. Since then he's needed three hours to beat Gael Monfils before losing to Jo Wilfried Tsonga in Toronto, and then got knocked out of the Western and Southern Open by Tommy Robredo.

"Many, many, many things are not clicking - it is more than obvious I'm not playing even close to what I'm supposed to play," was the way Djokovic summed it up.

All of which goes to prove that much of tennis betting stays on reputation rather than on form, because Djokovic is still the 2.3811/8 favourite for the US Open at a time when his mind is clearly elsewhere. He insists he's not distracted by memories of his new bride or the anticipation of the birth of their first baby in October, but then he would say that, wouldn't he?

Whatever the reason, Djokovic can't expect to get to Flushing Meadows and simply turn on his 'A' game like a tap. It doesn't work like that, even when you are number one in the world. Of course it is possible that he might be able to play his way through the first week and recover some form, but can he find enough to be a champion? It's unlikely.

Think of Andy Murray in Paris, who was struggling to get back to form following his operations. He needed a couple of five-set matches to get through, and when he then got to play the later rounds the fatigue took its toll. Djokovic could well suffer the same fate.

I wrote straight after Wimbledon that Roger Federer was a hugely generous price at 11.010/1to make the US Open his 18th Grand Slam triumph, and if you'd followed that advice you can already turn the market green because he's in to 4.77/2 now.

At the moment he looks the only one of the Big Four to have a realistic chance. Rafael Nadal is injured and won't be there, Djokovic will turn up but his mind won't be there, and Andy Murray is still a work in progress after that back operation. Federer, in contrast, has just won in Cincinnati having seen off Murray on the way to beating David Ferrer in the final.

He's relaxed, full of confidence, and staying in New York to rest and prepare while spending quality time with wife Mirka and their four children. Just don't expect to see the pictures in HELLO!