UEFA Super Cup: The showpiece trends favour Sevilla

Carlos Bacca is expected to lead the line for Sevilla in Cardiff

Michael Lintorn found five persistent UEFA Super Cup betting trends, several of which make a case for Sevilla...

Real Madrid v Sevilla
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 5

Match Odds: Real Madrid 1.444/9, Sevilla 8.415/2, The Draw 5.39/2

The Champions-Europa seesaw
Over the past 11 years, Super Cup supremacy has shifted annually from Champions League winners to UEFA Cup/Europa League victors, with Bayern Munich bringing the trophy back into the grander cup's possession last August by beating Chelsea on penalties. If that pattern holds, then Sevilla will be celebrating a triumph for the Europa League this year. That isn't the only trend in their favour...

Sevilla must uphold Spanish tradition
La Liga has a spectacularly successful relationship with the UEFA Cup/Europa League - we're talking Posh-and-Becks-esque in terms of affection and durability - supplying six of the last 11 champions. Five of the previous six Spanish Europa winners extended their summer of glory by lifting the Super Cup a few months later, whereas just three of their last six Champions League claimants did likewise.
Recommended Bet: Back Sevilla to win the Super Cup @ 5.85/1

Spain plus Super Cup equals goals
Spanish sides have contested the Super Cup ten times this century and eight found the net, including Sevilla on each of their participations (2006 and 2007) and Real Madrid in both of theirs (2000 and 2002). The sole La Liga club shut out were Barcelona in 2006 and 2009, so backing both teams to score for the third year in a row is advisable, and paid out in Real and Sevilla's last three showdowns.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.75/7

The peril of tuning in late
The deadlock was prised open within ten minutes of kick-off in the most recent two Super Cups, with Fernando Torres waiting eight minutes last year and Radamel Falcao completing part one of his hat-trick in the sixth minute in 2012. Real Madrid and Sevilla are usually pretty punctual too, with the first goal of their past six meetings all arriving before the 19th minute had passed.
Recommended Bet: Back the first goal to be scored in 0-10 minutes @ 4.03/1

A reason to back Bacca
The Europa League representatives have fired first in eight of the last ten Super Cups, with one of the two exceptions finishing 0-0 after 90 minutes. In the latest two, the starting striker for Team Europa got the party started - Falcao for Atletico Madrid in 2012 and Torres for Chelsea in 2013 - so Sevilla's Colombian forward Carlos Bacca leaps out as a possible first scorer.
Recommended Bet: Back Carlos Bacca to be first goalscorer @ 12.011/1