The Big Match Tactical View: Burnley v Chelsea

Jose Mourinho will expect to start 2014/15 with three points

It's the "ginger Mourinho" against the actual Mourinho in the Premier League season's first Monday night action - Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the action...

Burnley v Chelsea
Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Burnley 9.617/2, Chelsea 1.422/5, The Draw 5.04/1

Jose Mourinho has won the league title in his second season with Porto, Chelsea, Inter Milan and Real Madrid, and in his second season of his second stint at Chelsea, he should start his title challenge with a victory over a basic, if cohesive, Burnley side.

Burnley boss Sean Dyche is nicknamed 'the ginger Mourinho' for his achievements with the Clarets, so this is a great first Premier League outing for him, but in truth his style is probably more similar to that of Jurgen Klopp, among Europe's elite managers.

Burnley play a fast-paced brand of football, playing out from the back and pressing from the front, usually in a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 system, and while his side are likely to struggle in their opening match of the campaign, they could cause opponents problems this season, particularly at home.

Worryingly, however, Burnley have barely strengthened over the summer and need more work before the end of the transfer window. Matthew Taylor and Steven Reid both provide Premier League experience, and offer great versatility, but Dyche might prefer to start with the players he's familiar with from Burnley's successful promotion bid. 

In fact, with highly-rated Sam Vokes out injured, and his replacement Lucas Jutkiewicz arguably a weaker player, Burnley might actually have regressed since the end of last season. Vokes' partnership with Danny Ings was fantastic, and without that duo upfront together, this doesn't look like a Premier League quality XI on paper.

Chelsea could ruthlessly expose their deficiencies, especially with at least three new signings keen to make an instant impression. Diego Costa will start upfront and tirelessly work the channels, Cesc Fabregas will begin in midfield and provide the guile Chelsea were lacking last season, while left-back Filipe Luis is a solid full-back, a classic Mourinho player who will be 7/10 every week. This side no longer has an obvious weakness.

Mourinho is likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 from the outset, probably with Willian, Oscar and Eden Hazard behind Costa. It's a format that still seems best at playing on the counter-attack, and it was in games like this - against relegation strugglers - where Chelsea sometimes seemed unable to break down a parked bus last season, too reliant upon breaking into space.

Costa won't entirely solve that problem, even if he's capable of getting on the end of crosses, and Fabregas' penetrative passing and midfield running might prove more useful when it comes to defeating minnows.

Expect Chelsea to dominate possession here. Burnley's system essentially involves using two players upfront, and while one - probably Ings - will drop back into midfield without the ball, it won't be enough to stop Matic and Fabregas bossing the centre of the pitch. With Oscar varying his position intelligently to create overloads and supply the wide players, Burnley might become overwhelmed in the centre of the pitch.

Burnley's best chance of causing Chelsea problems is by attacking quickly. Michael Kightly and Scott Arfield can both run with the ball at speed and the centre-forwards should be capable of linking well. Chelsea, meanwhile, are likely to be playing without a pure holding midfielder in the Claude Makelele role, and the centre-back pairing of Gary Cahill and John Terry looks less comfortable when defending high up the pitch, rather than on the edge of their own box.

But this should be a comfortable Chelsea victory. 1.434/9 for the victory isn't particularly tempting, but Chelsea to be ahead at both half time and full time at 2.26/5 is good value.

Recommended Bet

Back Chelsea/Chelsea at Half-Time/Full Time at 2.26/5

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

If the pre-season Premier League odds are accurate then this encounter is between the champions-elect and the relegation certainties. However, often these fixtures aren’t that straightforward and Burnley will have been looking forward to this since the fixtures were released in June. The last time Burnley were in the Premier League (2009-2010) they started their campaign with four straight wins at Turf Moor (including 1-0 victories over Manchester United and Everton) they only lost one of their first 10 home fixtures (W5 D4), scoring at least once in each game.

However, the opening day of the season doesn’t seem to hold much fear for Jose Mourinho who has won all five opening day fixtures as Chelsea manager and the Blues have won 13 of their last 15 opening day games in general. As Burnley are relegation favourites, I had a look at Chelsea’s record away from home against sides that have been relegated over the last three seasons. Their record reads W7 D2 L0, scoring 20 and conceding seven.

While Chelsea boasted the best defensive record in the league last season, allowing only 27 goals (16 away) they did concede in all three away games against the relegated sides (Norwich & Fulham 3-1, Cardiff 2-1). As long as Chelsea turn up with the right attitude, I can only see a Chelsea victory but at [1.41] in the Match Odds market that offers no appeal to me. Therefore, I will be dutch-backing Chelsea to win 2-0 @ [7.2] and 2-1 @ [9.6] giving dutched odds of [4.1].