ATP Western & Southern Masters Betting: Federer to land sixth Cincy crown

Federer should earn a sixth Cincy title tonight

The 2014 Western & Southern Open reaches its conclusion in Cincy on Sunday with Roger Federer and David Ferrer contesting the championship match. Sean Calvert brings us the best betting options...

Saturday night in Mason, Ohio pretty much summed up how this fortnight of back-to-back Masters 1000s has gone, with arguably the best server on the tour failing miserably to find the target.

Milos Raonic's delivery let him and me down badly, with the Canadian managed an awful 44 percent of first serves into the box.

Without that weapon Raonic stood no chance against the superior ground game of Federer and my tie break bets went out of the window along with Milos's ability to serve.

Federer gratefully accepted the increased amount of second serves and the result was never in doubt, allowing the Swiss to move through to another Cincy final.

Roger goes for his sixth Cincy crown at 9pm UK time tonight and who would seriously back against him when his opponent is Ferrer, who Federer has beaten 15 times from 15 and once from one in an exhibition?

Ferrer is here by virtue of a very nice draw that opened up once Novak Djokovic, Grigor Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka failed and he shouldn't really be here at all after Philipp Kohlschreiber choked away a winning position against him in round two.

Since then, Ferrer has faced opponents who, with the exception of Tommy Robredo, were mentally beaten beforehand and Julien Benneteau was the latest example of this last night.

Benny was also physically spent after a tough singles and doubles campaign and offered up little in the way of resistance to Ferrer in yesterday's semi final.

The shoe might well be on the other foot this evening, as Ferrer now faces an opponent he knows deep down is simply a better player.

Ferrer has rarely tested Federer in their 15 match series and it's hard to see the Swiss maestro passing up the chance to quickly make up for last week's poor showing in the Toronto final.

The Spaniard isn't even playing his best tennis at the moment and it would be remarkable if he was able to get a result tonight, all things being equal.

Federer may struggle a tad with the turnaround after playing the night match yesterday, but that's really the only factor I can think of that favours Ferrer here on a court that has always suited the Federer game.

I can't see past a Federer win here and it should be fairly comfortable, with the 2-0 to the Swiss and the under total games appealing here.

Recommended Bet
Back Federer to beat Ferrer 2-0 at 1.738/11

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 960.60