Walsall manager Dean Smith
With a full set of midweek League One fixtures, Alan Dudman is on hand to preview the clash of the night between leaders Bristol City and Leyton Orient, but prefers Walsall's match on Tuesday as the betting game of the day...
Walsall 2.1411/10 v Yeovil Town 3.8514/5, the draw 3.55n/a
As one of the relegated sides from the Championship last term, Yeovil were much shorter than the 10.50n/a on offer in the promotion market right now. This is due to a disastrous start, but they have a decent manager in Gary Johnson, but it does highlight the quick reactions after just two league matches.
The Glovers were in a strange position in the tier above. They were expected to go down, therefore could play with no pressure and a certain amount of freedom, this time round it's different.
Johnson is a man I like, but he's hit out already at his squad. Words of 'dead wood needs removing from the squad' and 'not happy with our group', is the polar opposite to the usual bright spots and positives. With the League One defeats and a Capital Cup exit, it's their worst start in 30 years. The 10 summer signings have not hit their straps, and Yeovil have yet to score in open play, shipping in seven in the process.
Even though there are some exciting games on Tuesday evening, this looked the most interesting betting match, because both of these teams can't score. Town look utterly bereft of any ideas in the final third, and that's where Walsall's problem has been now for a long time.
Without doubt the Saddlers are a much better team, decent with the ball in fact. Under Dean Smith they'll be fine, and hopefully on the cusp of a chance of play-off football. They keep possession well, and are always very neat and tidy with the ball, but they are crying out for a player in-and-around the box who can make something happen.
Smith uses a 4-4-1-1 and the two games so far (0-0 v Bradford and 1-1 v Port Vale) have again shown up their problem of that lack of a killer touch. Defensively they are very good, having dealt with the aerial threat of Bradford last weekend rather well. Big plus points have been two of their young players. Ex-Chelsea midfielder Billy Clifford started against the Bantams on Saturday and has a degree of poise and elegance not often seen at this level, whilst 18-year-old Liam Kinsella was a force on his debut pushing forward from right-back.
Best Trade/ Cash Out Play
I cannot see this being a 2-1 or 3-0 game, which is why the under 2.5 goals market should be looked at. However if that trade is not attractive at 1.910/11, I would suggest looking at 0-0 @ 13.012/1 and 1-0 8.5n/a for Walsall to land the points. I always like to use the 0-0 to get to half-time, so there should be ample opportunities to get out before then.
Summary
I really am taken by the price of the under 2.5 goals at 1.910/11, and would even consider the under 1.5 which trades at 3.55n/a. Yeovil don't look in fantastic shape at the moment to warrant an interest at 3.8514/5, but with their start to the campaign, Johnson will reiterate the need to get up and running this term with at least a point, and when a side is fragile, you can't expect them to come out all guns blazing.
Walsall will have about 65 per cent of the play I imagine, and it will be up to them to break the struggling visitors down. But considering Walsall drew a lot of games last term and have started the same way, the 3.55n/a looks a better bet.
Recommended Bets
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11
Back the draw @ 3.55n/a
Chesterfield 2.6813/8 v MK Dons 2.8815/8, the draw 3.65n/a
The Spirerites have a 100 per cent League One record so far, winning both their games against Rochdale and Leyton Orient. They took me by surprise in the latter, but they look already the best equipped promoted team so far, and have adapted to the third tier very well.
Manager Paul Cook has a striker scoring, as Eoin Doyle has bagged three league goals so far, including a brace of penalties on Saturday against Rochdale. The Irishman was top scorer last term for Cook's side, and he looks a clever player on the limited evidence I have seen so far. A man I do know about though is Gary Roberts, who used to be a bit of a wing wizard for Huddersfield at this level a few years ago. He's still got that ability to buzz around, and football hipsters will be besides themselves with excitement at the prospect of a genuine 'false 9' in this grade.
All of Chesterfield's encounters so far (including the Cap Cup) have been over 2.5 goals, and I am sure there's a poem in there for their poet-in-residence Helen Mort, perhaps the only one in the league?
Like the hosts, the MK Dons have been hitting a few goals, and all three of their matches so far have produced a 4-2, 3-2 and 3-1. I was with them for Saturday and though Peterborough were vulnerable against Karl Robinson's side, and the bet almost came off bar until 10 minutes to go at London Road, they played well. Defender Dean Lewington gave an insight by saying: "We've let in five goals already without being under pressure."
Even though they tasted defeat to Posh at the weekend, I still think it was their best display so far, and was a step up on their previous matches. The Dons had quite a few problems though with the pace of Jon Taylor, so they'll need to be sharper here to try and contain Roberts.
Best Trade/ Cash Out Play
In total of League and Cup games so far between these two, there have been 29 goals, which is quite frankly ludicrous. And remember if you are trading or cashing out, you don't have to find the correct score, therefore playing a 2-2 correct scoreline at a massive price will be rather exciting with a couple of early goals, and I would most definitely advise getting out if that is the case.
Summary
I was with the MK Dons on Saturday (or thought Peterborough were a lay), so I have to stick to my principles once more. I would like to back the MK Dons, but an away side at 2.8815/8 isn't big enough. And with the lay of course we have two running for us, and as much as I respect the start of Chesterfield - especially with the victory against Leyton Orient, it's another lay of the shorter price. However, the stronger of the two looks the overs bet, as both are scoring and I can't see two clean sheets here.
Recommended Bet
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.9520/21
Bristol City 2.3611/8 v Leyton Orient 3.3512/5, the draw 3.45n/a
This looks the game of the evening on Tuesday, and both are expected to be at the summit chasing promotion. Bristol City done me a favour at the weekend by securing the over 2.5 bet and the home win, however they were not convincing against Colchester (who are not a great team) and manager Steve Cotterill said his side 'were not quite there fitness or confidence wise.'
However it's an excellent start, with City gaining back-to-back victories for the first time in the league since 2001. With six new signings they are still bedding in, although Aaron Wilbraham has enjoyed a terrific start already, and bagged both goals against the Essex side. He has often been the provider in his career, so it's a nice a player with a decent touch is now getting some headlines.
It seems the 3-5-2 formation has become all the rage since the World Cup, and now Cotterill is using the three centre-backs to compliment their intended attacking style. But remember, even though Glenn Hoddle and Roberto Martinez are great 3-5-2 merchants, Graham Taylor was using this years ago. Andy Sinton anyone?
Having put up Orient as my best bet on the opening day of the season (and they lost to Chesterfield), it's always galling to see them come out when you haven't backed them again, and go on to win. In fact, the O's looked very strong in the second-half at Oldham on Saturday, winning 3-1 and not giving the Latics a sniff of a chance in the second 45. Manager Russell Slade pinpointed a danger, and his defence completely snuffed out Jonathan Forte.
If you are weighing up a bet on Orient, the only worry I would have is the squad strength. Slade already has had a Capital One Cup extra-time and penalties game, which has secured an away trip to Aston Villa. And with Tuesday, Saturday, Tuesday, he's already juggling his numbers, which isn't great for the high energy style. But their signings have been very good, and mostly from the Championship. Forward Darius Henderson already has two goals, and considering his ratio at a higher level is one in four, there's hope he can bag 20.
Summary
All of Bristol City's games have been 2-1, whilst Orient's have been 1-2, 3-1 and 3-3, so the obvious starting point is the over 2.5 goals at around 1.9010/11. I have the same poser here as the MK Dons game, as I think Orient can gain a result here. Laying the hosts won't be too damaging, but Orient were handy on their travels last season, and I'll chance a go at 3.3512/5 despite the slight worry of the squad.
Recommended Bets
Back Leyton Orient @ 3.3512/5
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.9010/11
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
- 0.40 pts
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