Former Oxford boss Chris Wilder should complete a full season at a club this term and it could be a successful one
Ian Lamont takes a look at the season-long markets in League Two and is prepared to forego the obvious credentials of the top three in the betting to focus on a value back-to-lay. Exeter could struggle, while candidates for top scorer abound...
League Two winner
Picking a winner from a 24-horse race over 46 hurdles is always tricky - and usually it is easier to lay a team if they are a short-priced favourite, as Portsmouth and Crawley have been in recent seasons at about 4.57/2.
This year, however, layers are much more circumspect, nudging only three teams into single figures - big boys Portsmouth, busy player signers Bury and promoted Luton at about 9.08/1. I always hold that any team will be bigger than 10.09/1 at some point over the ninth-month season.
Bury's price - and expectation on them - is based on a great second half of the season. Regulars will know I am an Aldershot Town fan who was not caught up in the optimism when the Shots had a terrific second half of the season under Dean Holdsworth, who was then out of work by February after poor results.
The Shakers are most definitely a bigger club than the Shots though and always ambitious in this division, as shown by the signings of Nicky Adams and Ryan Lowe. Boss David Flitcroft has also taken a chance on an 'inspirational' Joe Thomspon, a winger he knew from Rochdale who has recovered from cancer.
Bury have certainly been busy, while Pompey - with by far the biggest supporter base in the division - will always be an attraction for players, as ex-Swindon striker Miles Storey attests. Fratton Park is a place to make or break a young player, certainly.
Season-long loans seem the way to go at Fratton as they rebuild finances, with Alex Wynter also brought in that way. Wynter's arrival from Crystal Palace and Danny Hollands' arrival from Charlton show the measure of high-level pulling power.
It should be remembered, however, that Bradford spent five years in this division and Luton, from the same top division height, fell into non-League Football. They are back now, and under John Still who knows this division having served it well with Dagenham. He has recruited Paul Benson, who scored for the Daggers in the play-off final a few years ago to take them up, and he should be well supplied by Andy Drury, who should still be playing at a higher level.
Having laid Portsmouth and backed Oxford this time last year, but failed to fully cashout at +10 when the U's led the division, I am determined to play another long-shot with a view to cashing out.
Of the teams who really under-performed last season - Cheltenham and Northampton - there is more to like about the Cobblers, whose boss Chris Wilder led the division last season with Oxford.
Northampton had a troubled pre-season last year, losing some of their best players and suffering injuries. Having survived relegation on the final day, Wilder believes he has built a side to challenge, recruiting Zander Diamond, Kaid Mohamed and Marc Richards. They might reward at 25.024/1 for a back to lay.
Recommended Bet
Back Northampton at 25.024/1
Promotion 2014-15
Oxford's sea change, with new owners and new manager Michael Appleton, makes them a question mark for the season. However, a club of their size really shouldn't struggle at the wrong end, so a potential top seven - allowing a shot at promotion via the play-offs - is there if the upheavals during the summer work out.
Who knows? If the highly rated new boss gets a proper chance, rather than the short stints at Blackburn, Blackpool and Portsmouth, he may prove an excellent manager. It is brave to replace Gary Waddock, who has won the division, in such circumstances. Oxford still have off-field problems. They do not own their own stadium and there is a push to move to greenbelt land which will cause negative reactions. Hardly a recipe for happiness.
A price of 3.55/2 to finish in the top seven seems a slim season-long bet, so looking for 6.05/1 on promotion seems a reasonable alternative.
Matt Tubbs, if he can repeat his Crawley Town success, is a cracking signing for AFC Wimbledon and could be the consistent striker they have lacked to start a season. If a supply line can be found, they could reward backers of a top seven finish at 5.04/1.
Recommended Bets
Back Oxford to be promoted @ 6.05/1
Back AFC Wimbledon for a top seven finish @ 5.04/1
Top goalscorer 2014-15
If Oxford do have a good season, Danny Hylton will probably play a huge part. The former Aldershot Town striker had a good end of season at AFC Wimbledon. He is surprisingly long at 35.0n/a but that is the sort of price you want pre-season for a market which often throws up a few surprises.
Two of his (briefly) team-mates while at Rotherham, however, might well set the pace. Matt Tubbs and Daniel Nardiello are around 14.013/1 and it is the latter's most recent experience of this division with Bury last season which makes him the better option. Plymouth's Reuben Reid, second highest scorer in the division last year, is hard to ignore but Nardiello might just prove a trickier customer for defenders.
Recommended Bet
Back Daniel Nardiello in the top scorer's market @ 14.013/1
Relegation 2014-15
Remarkably Accrington, the football league's smallest club, are not the red-hot favourites for the drop they usually are in August. They are fourth-favourites at 6.411/2.
Exeter, who had a trip to Brazil this summer, might have to rely on youngsters after a transfer embargo for borrowing money to pay players from the PFA, plus they have had a poor home form for two seasons. That is why they are 6.05/1.
Meanwhile at Mansfield Liam Hearn, returning from injury, seems to want to be patient as he searches for goals, as the Stags seek to replace Matt Green, but if he does not find them quickly the team might struggle in their second season back in the division. Seek 9.08/1.
Recommended Bets
Back Exeter for relegation at 6.05/1
Back Mansfield for relegation at 9.08/1
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