Conte’s departure has big impact on Juventus’ odds

Conte’s departure has big impact on Juventus’ odds

By Charlie Rowing Aug 15, 2014

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The 2014/15 Serie A season begins on August 30th, and this Serie A betting preview highlights why the Italian league holds betting promise this campaign. Read on for in-depth Serie A betting information from odds movement to handicap analysis.

Conte resigns: Title race wide open

Perhaps the most significant change in Serie A during preseason was the resignation of Juventus manager Antonio Conte. Conte had been at Juve for the last three seasons – winning three Serie A titles and two Italian Super Cups.

Reports in the press differed from a lack of desire to broken promises over the transfer policy. Regardless of the exact details, Conte left Juventus and has now been employed as the Italian national manger.

How will this affect Juventus? Before his resignation they were at 1.740 to win a fourth consecutive Scudetto, however once news broke of Conte’s decision their odds dropped to 2.410* . Bettors should understand the significance of this movement – the market initially gave Juventus a 57.45% chance of winning Serie A, but following his departure it dropped 15% to 41.49%.

La Vecchia Signora moved quickly and appointed former AC Milan manager Massimiliano Allegri to replace Conte, the day after his resignation. Bettors must decide whether or not the market has gauged the impact of Conte’s departure accurately. Identifying this better than the bookmaker will give them an edge for the 2014/15 Serie A season.

Roma’s odds have shortened

The departure of Conte has not only had an impact on Juventus. Title rivals Roma saw their odds to win the league shorten favourably from 5.200 to 3.160* in the 24 hours following the announcement.

To put this into context, the market originally gave The Giallorossi an implied probability of 19.23% to win the league; this has now increased to 31.65%.

Led by Rudi Garcia, Roma were unfortunate not to win their first Scudetto since 2001 last term. An attacking philosophy helped them win their first 10 games, however four consecutive draws saw them slip behind eventual winner Juventus in week 13, where they remained for the duration of the campaign.

The 85 points they accrued last year would have ensured they won Serie A in five of the last seven seasons. With Juventus apparently weakened, will it be Roma’s year? Bettors must also consider whether or not last season was an anomaly, or do Roma have the capability and consistency to threaten Juventus’ monopoly?

The other Scudetto contenders

Napoli arguably disappointed last season finishing third, despite spending over €100m on new players. On the handicap however, they covered 60.5% of the time last season – the most in Serie A.

Despite not performing to expectations in the league, it’s interesting that bookmakers still undervalued their strength throughout the season. Bettors must decide whether or not the bookmakers will overvalue them on the handicap at the start of this season, as a consequence of undervaluing them last term. Pinnacle Sports are offering 5.430* (an implied probability of 18.42%) on them to win the league.

AC Milan are undergoing a re-building process and have taken a considerable gamble by giving former club legend Fillipo Inzaghi his first managerial role.

Their form against the spread highlighted Milan’s struggles last season. In 2013/14 they covered in just 28.9% of their games – the lowest in Serie A. Sharp bettors would have noticed the Rossoneri were being overvalued by the market – which was perhaps suffering from confirmation bias  – and bet on them not to cover. Another season of struggle is predicted for Milan, who are offered at 12.200* to win the title.

Serie A: Potential value on the spread

The Serie A handicap market offers potential value. Last season Atalanta finished 11th in the league but offered real value on the spread at home – they covered in an impressive 68.4% of games at the Stadio Atleti Azzurri d’Italia.

On the road Sassuolo – who finished 17th – offered the bettor the most value by covering in an impressive 63.2% of their games.

It’s also worth noting that Home Field Advantage for Serie A teams in the 2013/14 season was measured at 1.67 points per game – the highest in any major European league. Bettors should consider this statistic when handicapping team strength.

Click here to see the latest 2014/15 Serie A odds.

*Odds subject to change

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