Against All Odds: Set your watch by Cruzeiro

Can Cruzeiro retain their title and win the Copa Libertadores?

Reigning champions, Cruzeiro, are usually good for goals and Paul Robinson thinks that will continue to be the case tonight as the Brazilian club take on Botafogo RJ.

Botafogo RJ v Cruzeiro
Saturday August 2, 22:30 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Botafogo RJ haven't exactly made a stellar start to their season as after a dozen fixtures they are languishing down in 14th place having picked up only 12 points. There are mitigating circumstances though as eight of their matches have been on the road with only four coming at home. 

Vagner Mancini's side are unbeaten in front of their own fans this term - two wins and two draws - and while they would have preferred an easier assignment today, they are at least back on home soil. 

It's the goal aspect of things we're concentrating on here though and with 14 scored and 14 conceded, their matches are averaging 2.33 goals each time. While only one third of their outings have gone over 2.5, that fraction shoots up to one half if we focus on their home games only.

The main reason for this selection however is their opponents, Cruzeiro. The 2013 champions are back on top of the league with a five point gap to their nearest rivals already. It's not difficult to see why they're so successful as Marcelo Oliveira's men have scored an incredible 28 goals to date - eight more than any other team.

'A Raposa' aren't exactly solid at the back - seven other clubs have conceded fewer - and that has led to their matches averaging 3.33 goals per 90 minutes. Nine of their 12 have gone over 2.5, with five going over 3.5 and three actually going over 4.5 goals. 

I can't quite believe that under 2.5 goals is odds-on here given that Cruzeiro are involved. That's why, with it trading at around the 1.9720/21 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Botafogo RJ v Cruzeiro @ 1.981/1

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 204 pts
Returned: 213.23 pts
P/L: + 9.23 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)