понедельник, 30 июня 2014 г.

Wimbledon Women's Betting: Safarova to march on at Makarova's expense

Can Safarova book her place in the semi's? Can Safarova book her place in the semi's?

The quarter-finals get underway at Wimbledon on Tuesday, and Abelson Info preview some highly intriguing encounters as we edge closer to Saturday's final...

The bottom half of the draw is wide open considering the number of high profile exits we have seen thus far, with Li Na, Sloane Stephens, Flavia Pennetta, Dominika Cibulkova and Sara Errani all out of the picture.

Fourth seed Agnieszka Radwanska joined them by crashing out of the tournament on Monday following a heavy straight-sets defeat to Ekaterina Makarova, and even though the past week has proven that there are some dangerous players on show, Petra Kvitova is likely to be the biggest beneficiary.

The 2011 champion had a tough three-set match in the third round against Venus Williams, but she dispatched Shuai Peng with relative ease last time out.

Now the highest seed remaining in her half of the draw by some distance, the Czech ace will face Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, who has accounted for Elena Vesnina, Na and most recently Caroline Wozniacki.

As a result, Kvitova will not take this contest lightly, and with the surprise element ruled out, she will want to put on a professional performance which sees her through to the semi-finals with minimal fuss.

Kvitova has enjoyed the better of their previous meetings as she leads their head-to-head record 3-1 and if she can play on the front foot and not allow her compatriot to mix up the pace and have her scrambling then she is more than capable of putting on a convincing display.

While the top half of the draw plays catch up, attention is fully focused on the bottom half in terms of quarter-final encounters, and the aforementioned Makarova will look to continue her dream run at SW19 this year against Lucie Safarova.

The Czech contingent have made history with no less than three players reaching this stage of a Grand Slam for the first time in the Open Era, but if Safarova harbours realistic ambitions of progressing even further, she will have to be at her best.

After battling through her opening rounds, Makarova defeated promising youngster Caroline Garcia in round three, before dumping out one of our tournament tips in Radwanska last time out and dropping just three games in the process.

As a result, the Russian star has been made the favourite in this one, but her Czech opponent's path hasn't been particularly easy either, and with the pair locked at one win apiece in their head-to-head, this could be closer than many envisage it to be.

With such a big prize on offer and a genuine chance of reaching a Grand Slam final thereafter, there is huge incentive for both women to play their best tennis. There is barely anything to split them in terms of world ranking and form this year, and they are even both lefties.

While Makarova will be fancied to outclass her rival, back Safarova to produce an upset of sort and advance to the last four.

Recommended Bets

Back Safarova to beat Makarova @ 2.245/4
Back Kvitova to beat Strycova 2-1 @ 4.216/5

World Cup Opta Stats: Argentina and Belgium to shine

Thibaut Courtois is one of Belgium's many great defensive talents

Michael Lintorn has examined the Opta stats and found cause to fancy Argentina and Belgium to prosper...

Argentina v Switzerland
Tuesday, 17:00
Live on BBC One

Match Odds: Argentina 1.528/15, Switzerland 8.07/1, The Draw 4.57/2

Switzerland have lost four of their previous six World Cup matches against South American nations

There isn't much to encourage support for Switzerland ahead of their round-of-16 collision with an Argentina side who boast a perfect winning record at this World Cup. Ottmar Hitzfeld's men haven't been beyond this stage since hosting the tournament in 1954, and have lost four of their six prior meetings with the Albiceleste, the most recent of which was a half-time/full-time reverse in 2012.

Recommended Bet: Back Argentina to win @ 1.528/15

Lionel Messi has netted four goals in his three appearances at World Cup 2014

Messi has gone from appearing World Cup-cursed after seven successive scoreless showings to absolutely bossing the competition this time around, with each of his four Group F strikes rather special. Switzerland's record of seven shutouts in their last ten World Cup fixtures is impressive, but undermined by shipping five the last time they faced a team in range of Argentina's quality (France).

Recommended Bet: Back Messi to score @ 1.774/5

Belgium v USA
Tuesday, 21:00
Live on BBC One

Match Odds: Belgium 2.0811/10, USA 4.216/5, The Draw 3.55/2

Belgium have won three successive World Cup games for the first time

Without even coming close to performing to their full potential, Belgium secured their place in the knockout phase as group winners with a 100% victory rate and just one Algeria penalty sullying their goals against column. USA did well to get out of fiendish Group G, yet did so with only one triumph to their name, while they have ventured beyond this round at a mere one of the last six World Cups.

Recommended Bet: Back Belgium to win @ 2.0811/10

Belgium have kept clean sheets in three of their last four clashes with USA

Belgium haven't conceded from open play in Brazil, which perhaps isn't surprising when they have the likes of Thibaut Courtois and Vincent Kompany (a slight injury doubt) in their defensive armoury. USA aren't nearly as blessed up front, a situation that won't be amended by the possible return of Jozy Altidore. A second blank in a row - and fourth in five against Belgium - is the likely result.

Best Bet: Back Belgium to keep a clean sheet @ 2.447/5

World Cup 2014 Report: Pogba pops France into quarter-finals

Merci beaucoup: France players were grateful for Enyeama's error

France weren't at their best in seeing off Nigeria, and Betfair customers have been reluctant to show further support in the outright market for Les Bleus. Adam Shearwood assesses the first of Monday's matches...

The final score was what many on the Betfair exchange predicted; 2-0 France was available at 7.413/2 pre-kick off - excluding Any Unquoted, it was the favourite Correct Score outcome. Its many backers will enjoy their winning bet, but they were made to suffer for it by a French side who lost their way badly in the second half against Nigeria. During this period of French incompetence, the winning Correct Score drifted to a high of 16.5n/a, as the Super Eagles firmly held the upper hand.

But for wasteful delivery into the box, the African side might have made their superiority count. As it was, it was one of many quality deliveries from Mathieu Valbuena that led to France's opening goal. His wicked corner was missed by Nigerian goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama, and in the resulting chaos the ball found its way to the forehead of Paul Pogba, who nodded calmly into the empty net. Pogba was matched at a high of 17.5n/a In-Play for the opening goal of the game.

France's second goal also came from a Nigerian error - which was unfortunate given how well they contained Giroud, Benzema and the marauding French midfield for most of the game.

Again, Valbuena was the architect, fizzing a dangerous low cross towards Antoine Griezmann which the unfortunate Joseph Yobo turned into his own net to land the 2-0 Correct Score for its many backers, and seal France's place in the quarter-finals.

Betfair customers have been lukewarm in their reaction to the victory for Les Bleus - France have moved in to 9.417/2 from 10.09/1 pre-match for 2014 Winner. They would appear unconvinced that Deschamps' team have what it takes to overcome the Germans in the quarter finals, should Jogi Low's side beat Algeria this evening.

Karim Benzema's failure to score for the second match running sees his hopes of landing the Golden Boot fade further - he's now available at 24.023/1, having been backed at a low of 4.03/1.

Will Liverpool or Everton rule Merseyside next season?

Replacing Romelu Lukaku is one of the big headaches for Everton boss Roberto Martinez

Alex Johnson poses the question of which Merseyside club will lead the way in the Premier League next season.

Liverpool and Everton enjoyed a renaissance in 2013-14 and many expect them to go from strength-to-strength this term.

It was Liverpool who took the local bragging rights last season, finishing second and almost taking the title, but who will finish higher in the upcoming campaign?

The Reds have already splashed the cash this summer, bringing in England international striker Rickie Lambert and Turkish midfielder Emre Can so far.

With Adam Lallana poised to join the new arrivals at Anfield, Brendan Rodgers has shown his intent to introduce quality additions to the squad for a big campaign ahead.

Liverpool crept under the radar last season and many pundits pointed to the lack of European football as the main reason they were able to challenge the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea.

This term they will have Champions League football to contend with and the depth of the squad will be vital in order to challenge on all fronts. The pressure will also be cranked up this term, with more expectation following their title bid last season.

Lest we forget, there is one big question mark hanging over Liverpool's hopes for 2014-15...Luis Suarez!

Liverpool already know they are likely to be without their star striker until November after the ban dished out by FIFA following his now infamous incident at the World Cup.

Will Suarez still be at Anfield come August? If so, how quickly will it take for him to get back to the heights of last season, having not played or trained for such a long time?

Meanwhile, Everton are looking to build on their achievement of a fifth-place finish last season but they will have similar issues to their local rivals.

After a long spell of relative success under David Moyes, the Blues took a huge stride forward in Roberto Martinez's first season in charge. Not only did they finish in the European places, but their style of football has also been lauded.

Again, like Liverpool, they went under the radar having lost their long-time manager and brought in a coach who had never challenged himself at the top end of the Premier League.

But Everton showed, particularly with wins at Manchester United and home successes over Chelsea and Arsenal, that they can mix it with the best the Premier League has to offer and that there could be more to come.

With a couple of better signings in January, Everton could have been preparing for the Champions League rather than the Europa League, which could be a hindrance for them this term.

Many teams have struggled with the workload that Europe's second-ranked club competition brings, playing Thursdays and then in the league on a weekend. Martinez will have to be shrewd with his squad rotation if Everton are to be as competitive as last season.

It also remains to be seen just how much the Spaniard will have to spend on new recruits this summer, with no new arrivals to date.

That will have a big impact on how well they can do both domestically and in Europe, with Martinez likely to have to find a couple of bargains.

The big problem for Everton will be how to replace Romelu Lukaku, who seems certain to be playing his football for another team in 2014-15.

The Belgian international scored 15 goals during his loan spell at Goodison Park and his departure will leave a massive void up front. That will also bring more pressure on the young shoulders of Ross Barkley, but the extra responsibility might see him flourish.

So on the face of it, the two Merseyside clubs should be close rivals again this season but Liverpool's extra transfer power is likely to see them finish above the Blues again.

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Super Sunday in the Superettan

Sunday Best: Everyone dresses up for the football in Sweden

The Joker's using the sabbath to pray for goals in Sweden

Angelholms 1 GAIS 0.

Monday Samuel got the game's only goal, but where were the rest of them?

Sunday Oliseh? Robin Friday? Nowhere to be seen.

And so the Joker is forced to sell the rest of his mankini.

Which means he's not going anywhere for the time being. Luckily, five of Syrianska's seven home games in this season's Superettan have produced Over 2.5 Goals, and so have all seven Degerfors away matches.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.594/7 in Syrianska FC v Degerfors

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Super Sunday in the Superettan

Sunday Best: Everyone dresses up for the football in Sweden

The Joker's using the sabbath to pray for goals in Sweden

Angelholms 1 GAIS 0.

Monday Samuel got the game's only goal, but where were the rest of them?

Sunday Oliseh? Robin Friday? Nowhere to be seen.

And so the Joker is forced to sell the rest of his mankini.

Which means he's not going anywhere for the time being. Luckily, five of Syrianska's seven home games in this season's Superettan have produced Over 2.5 Goals, and so have all seven Degerfors away matches.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.594/7 in Syrianska FC v Degerfors

World Cup Opta Stats: Benzema and Muller to run riot

Germany have already scored seven times at this World Cup

The Opta stats hint that the key to profit on Europe-v-Africa Monday lies in backing the most proven scorers...

France v Nigeria
Monday, 17:00
Live on BBC One

Match Odds: France 1.4640/85, Nigeria 9.08/1, The Draw 4.84/1

Les Bleus have lost two of their last three World Cup matches against African nations

France's grimmest World Cup moments this century were inflicted by African opponents, as Senegal set the tone for their dismal 2002 defence and South Africa ensured a feeble finish to a tumultuous 2010 campaign. Only winless Togo in 2006 bent to French will. Nigeria won their one prior clash with the 1998 champions and have netted in nine of their ten World Cup collisions with European sides.

Recommended Bet: Lay France to win in 90 minutes @ 1.4640/85

Karim Benzema has scored nine goals in his last nine appearances for France

Among Benzema's nine strikes are three in three at this World Cup and though Nigeria have kept two clean sheets already in Brazil, their defence isn't as resilient as unremarkable Iran and Bosnia teams made it look. Argentina demonstrated that by firing three past them in their Group F finale - doubling their tournament tally - as did Scotland and USA by scoring two past them in the build-up.

Recommended Bet: Back Benzema to score @ 2.186/5

Germany v Algeria
Monday, 21:00
Live on ITV

Match Odds: Germany 1.341/3, Algeria 11.5n/a, The Draw 5.85/1

Germany have scored the opening goal in all three of their games so far in the competition

Germany's deadlock-breaking expertise isn't exclusively down to their abundance of attacking talent, but also their defence's refusal to allow foes any early gifts. They haven't given away a first-half goal in any of their last eight internationals. As Algeria haven't been involved in a goalless opening period in any of their six outings this year, trailing Russia last time, it points to a German interval advantage.

Recommended Bet: Back Germany to lead at half-time and full-time @ 1.991/1

Thomas Muller has scored nine goals in nine World Cup appearances

One of the summer's sub-plots is Miroslav Klose's bid to overhaul Ronaldo as the all-time top World Cup scorer, with the pair currently tied on 15. However, even if he does claim an outright lead, it is unlikely to last long with 24-year-old Muller over halfway towards matching them following less than a tournament-and-a-half's work. The Bayern forward grabbed four group goals and, ominously, was more prolific in the knockout phase in 2010, notching four times, including twice in the round-of-16.

Best Bet: Back Muller to score @ 1.9420/21

World Cup 2014 11am Bulletin: LvG gets it right again

Louis van Gaal deserves huge credit for the Netherlands' success

For the third Netherlands match in a row, Louis van Gaal made savvy tweaks to alter the outcome...

Following the Netherlands 2-0 victory over Chile in their final Group B game, in which two of the players that Louis van Gaal brought off the bench (Leroy Fer and Memphis Depay) got the goals, Arjen Robben remarked that his boss must have golden genitalia.

Memphis had already been introduced to score the winner in the previous fixture with Australia and van Gaal's flair for mid-match metamorphosis warranted even more celebration after Sunday's absorbing round-of-16 clash with Mexico.

The Netherlands were heading out with 15 minutes to go, making the decision to remove Robin van Persie terrifically bold. A greater surprise still was replacing him with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, one of two outfield players he hadn't utilised until then, seeming to ignore him entirely in the group stage.

The Schalke striker provided the assist for Wesley Sneijder's rocket of an equaliser before converting the late penalty that subjected Mexico to yet another round-of-16 elimination having been a star turn at this pulsating World Cup.

A Dutch path to a fourth final is now opening up in front of them, with Costa Rica confirmed as their quarter-final opponents thanks to an exhausting penalty-shootout triumph over Greece. If they survive in Salvador next Saturday, one of Argentina, Switzerland, Belgium or USA await in the semis.

As each of that quartet are either yet to produce an outstanding performance to justify their hype despite winning starts (Argentina and Belgium) or are deemed to lack the quality to go the distance (Switzerland and USA), support for the Netherlands at 2.6813/8 to reach the final is understandable.

While the Dutch and Costa Ricans have six days to prepare themselves for their next test, four more sides strive to secure last-eight spots in the other half of the draw on Monday, with France and Nigeria colliding in Brasilia and Germany and Algeria meeting in Porto Alegre.

Tipster-in-form James Eastham recommends backing France to lead the Super Eagles at the interval, while Kevin Hatchard expects Thomas Muller to feature prominently again as Germany overcome Algeria.

Recommended Bet: Back Netherlands to reach the final @ 2.6813/8

World Cup 2014: Back Rodriguez to stay top of the scoring charts

James Rodriguez is fit and firing as the Golden Boot race hots up

Brazil 2014 has been a feast of great football and great goals. Ralph Ellis has been looking at the spectacular chase for the Golden Boot...

As careers go, the kindest word to describe Oleg Salenko's would be "decent". The Russian striker drifted around seven different European clubs after first making his name with Zenit Leningrad, and finished up retiring at the age of 32 after three years in which injuries kept him to just four games.

In Britain you might say he's remembered for a brief spell at Glasgow Rangers - but actually he probably isn't remembered, as he played just 16 games after a 2.5million move before being shipped out to Turkey because of concerns over his fitness. He's 44 now, working as a coach for the Ukraine FA, and should have disappeared into obscurity.

But there is one thing that makes Salenko special. He is the answer to a great quiz question:  Who is the only winner of the World Cup's golden boot whose country failed to qualify from the group stages?

Salenko smashed five past Cameroon for Russia at USA 1990, and tucked away a penalty in a 3-1 defeat by Sweden, which was enough to see him finish the tournament tied level with Bulgaria's Hristo Stoichkov on six apiece.

So it can be done to win a World Cup Golden Boot as part of a team that goes out early. But in reality it doesn't happen very often. And that's why in this year's shoot-out for one of the biggest individual prizes that the game has to offer you need also to look for a team that can go the distance.

It's why Lionel Messi is currently the 3.613/5 favourite, even though he lags a goal behind leader James Rodriguez who has five. The Barcelona wizard still has his second round match to come, and you'd fancy him to score against Switzerland tomorrow. After that his side have every prospect of beating either Belgium or the USA and reaching the semis, which really is key for whoever gets the Golden Boot.

In the four tournaments since Salenko's freak achievement, the top scorer has always played for a country who reached the last four. It's logical really - the more games you play, the more chances you get to score. And this year in particular it will be true. Rodriguez already has enough to have won the trophy in either of the last two World Cups - but this time it might well be that it won't be won without at least matching the eight scored by Ronaldo in 2002. Eight or above is currently a lay of 4.84/1 in the Golden Boot Award Goals market.

Brazil's dazzling number ten Neymar was matched early in the tournament at just 3.02/1 but has now drifted to 8.88/1. Nursing a thigh injury after being kicked from pillar to post by Chile, and in particular Cardiff's Gary Medel, he may not even play in Friday's quarter-final against the Colombians.

Neymar has carried Brazil so far, but without him they would not be worth backing at their odds-on price of 1.865/6 for Friday's quarter-final. And with Rodriguez not only fit but firing, there's every prospect of the home country's party coming to an early end. That's why I go for the Colombian star, currently priced at 5.04/1, as the best value bet for the Golden Boot.

Wimbledon Women's Betting: Plenty of big-priced value left in the draw

Can Lucie Safarova capitalise on a good draw?

With just a couple of third round matches remaining, the women's tournament at Wimbledon is gaining good momentum. James Boswell is back to update you on the betting with some long odds recommendations for the second week... 

One week down, 128 down to 18 and the 128th Championships are truly under way in the hallowed SW19. The first week has seen plenty of shocks and some wonderful tennis and everything is poised for a great finish to the year's third major.

Looking to the betting, Maria Sharapova has taken up the mantle of favourite after Serena Williams' exit to the impressive Alize Cornet. Sharapova has looked dangerous on the back of her triumphant Roland Garros run, but she is in the toughest bracket remaining, the only one where all players remaining are seeds. She will face Germany's Angelique Kerber before matching up to either giant-killer Cornet or the very impressive Eugenie Bouchard and even if she does manage to battle through that draw, the energy expended will surely drain her too much for the final leg of the championship.

Lucie Safarova, on the other hand, has a very favourable draw. She matches up against Tereza Smitkova who beat Bojana Jovanovski in a gruelling three-set thriller, which included an 18 game third set. If Safarova can get through this, she sets up a meeting with either Ekaterina Makarova or, more likely, Agnieska Radwanska. Safarova will certainly be hoping for the latter, as she has beaten her in four of their five meetings, including the three most recent. Safarova is currently outside the top eight in the betting and looks a good bet for the quarters or semis, making her a good back-to-lay at 55.054/1.

Ana Ivanovic is the only name remaining of our pre-tournament selections, and is still a good price to win the championship at 38.037/1 and I would still fancy her if she can come from a set down on Monday morning against Sabine Lisicki. She never gives up and a break over the rest day will help her regain her composure after a tough first set. Coming through this gives her a good chance for the quarters, facing up to either Madison Keys or Yaroslava Shvedova, both of which I would bet to succumb to the Serb's superior experience.

If you're looking for a big outsider, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova could be your woman. She has a bit of a reputation as a giant killer, knocking out two seeded players already, including second seed Li Na. She will need to continue this, as she meets the impressive Caroline Wozniacki next and would likely find herself up against former champion Petra Kvitova should she get through that. In her favour though is that Wozniacki hasn't been further than the fourth round at a major since Australia 2012 and has had a tough year on and away from the court. 

Zahlavova Strycova's possible opponent Kvitova is not a person to oppose in the betting. Second favourite, she has the better half of the draw, with only Radwanska of the top 15 seeds left in, over whom she holds a 5-1 advantage in her career. She looked brutish in her defeat of Venus and her serve is hard to live with on the grass, so a final run is definitely within her reach.

Simona Halep is the other favourite I wouldn't like to oppose. After looking so good in defeat in Paris, she has had a relatively smooth ride so far in London and plays the unfancied Zarina Diyas next. At fourth favourite, she's got every chance of making the semis at least, so should be respected at that price.

Recommended Bets
Back-to-lay Lucie Safarova @ 55.054/1
Back-to-lay Barbora Zahlavova Strycova @ 140.0139/1 

Already Advised
Back Ana Ivanovic @ 38.037/1

World Cup Opta Stats: Belgium v USA

Will Belgium by celebrating after their match with the USA?

Belgium and the USA looks likely to be a tight clash. Opta reveal where the advantage lies.

The US have qualified for the knockout stage in three of their previous four World Cups and are aiming to reach the Quarter Final for the first time since 2002. They are 3.02/1 to qualify.

Belgium and USA have met just once before in the World Cup, in what was for both their first World Cup game in 1930. The US ran out 3-0 winners in Montevideo. The USA are 4.47/2 to win in 90 minutes.

Belgium have won each of their four games since that clash, keeping a clean sheet on three occasions. They are 2.0421/20 to win the match within normal time.

In their last meeting in May 2013, the Rode Duivels won 4-2 in Cleveland. Kevin Mirallas and Marouane Fellaini both scored for Belgium, while Clint Dempsey and Geoff Cameron were on the score sheet for the US. Over 2.5 goals is 2.427/5.

Belgium won all three of their group games at a World Cup for the first time. It was also the first time they had won three successive games in the competition. They are 23.022/1 to win the competition.

The US managed just nine shots on target in their three group games. They are the only side to have qualified without reaching double figures in this regard. Under 2.5 goals is 1.684/6.

The last six Belgian goals at World Cups have come in the closing 20 minutes of games. The draw half-time/Belgium full-time is 5.69/2.

USA have conceded in each of their last 16 World Cup games against European opposition. Both teams to score is 2.0811/10.

Only three players (Lionel Messi, Alexis Sanchez and Angel Di Maria) completed more dribbles than Eden Hazard in the group stage (13). Hazard is 2.87n/a to score.

No player made more blocks than Daniel van Buyten in the group stage (5). Belgium are 2.47/5 to keep a clean sheet.

Wimbledon 2014: Murray's smooth progress to continue against Anderson

Sean expects Murray to have few problems against Anderson Sean expects Murray to have few problems against Anderson

It was a very profitable week one of Wimbledon 2014 for Sean Calvert, who's siding with Andy Murray to make short work of Kevin Anderson on Monday...

The rain decimated Saturday's play at Wimbledon 2014, leaving several of the players in the men's draw up against a tough schedule for the remainder of the tournament.

One match that did complete was a winner for us, as Nick Kyrgios recorded a four set win over Jiri Vesely, while my other wager in the John Isner/Feli Lopez match carries over to Monday.

That one is scheduled for 11:30am on Monday now and Lopez will appreciate the extra day off in the short-term, but he'll have to pay for it in the coming days if he's successful.

I personally always find the scheduling of this tournament somewhat bizarre and surely this sort of situation can be avoided by simply starting matches earlier, rather than the ridiculously late 1pm on show courts and 11.30am on outside courts.

We would then avoid the farcical situations we've seen in recent days, where Marin Cilic, Madison Keys and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga were playing in close to darkness.

Anyway, Monday is now packed with third and fourth round matches and Andy Murray will play at around 3pm on Centre Court against Kevin Anderson.

The big South African stunned Murray the last time they met, which was way back in 2011 on hard courts in Montreal, but it's hard to see him catching the Brit cold this time.

Anderson had a back problem that required a MTO against Fabio Fognini in the last round and that can't be good news for Kevin as he tries to beat a top-10 player on grass for the first time.

Murray doesn't tend to struggle against big servers like Anderson and it'll be the latter's movement and rather stiff, robotic game style that is likely to let him down here.

Andy will give Kevin no real rhythm to work with and he won't like the differing pace, angles and slices that Murray will no doubt produce to knock Anderson off his stride.

Fabio Fognini did that rather well in the last round until a combination of an injury and his brain let the Italian down again. That won't be happening with the defending champion today.

I like the minus 7.5 games on Murray here, with the Brit holding a 13-1 record against the 'big servers' I have on my stats list and the only loss was against Tsonga in Nottingham in 2004.

Murray, if successful on Monday, will next meet the winner of Grigor Dimitrov and Leonardo Mayer and as usual the layers are giving too much respect to the Bulgarian with a quote of around 1.11/10, which is a crazy price.

Dimitrov is coming off the back of a five set match with Alex Dolgopolov in his last match and so far in his career Grigor hasn't come back after a five set match and won the next one.

Mayer has all the shots and for grass and decent movement and while you won't see him at the net much he can hang with Grigor from the back of the court and he has an equally good single-handed backhand, a good serve and powerful forehand.

He doesn't have the mental strength of others at the top of the game, but he can do enough to take a set here at least and a lay of Dimitrov 3-0 or a back of Mayer 'to win a set' look the ones here.

The Argentine is around 2.3811/8 to win a set and that looks worth a bet to me, with Dimitrov not proven after five setters and only once in his Grand Slam career has he won a match against a top-50 player in straight sets.

Mayer will jump up inside the top-50 after this tournament and should be win on Monday he'll probably go as high as number 36.

Recommended Bets

Back Murray -7.5 games to beat Anderson at 2.427/5
Back Mayer to win a set against Dimitrov at 2.3811/8

Wimbledon 2014 profit and loss

Staked: 170.00 (based on 10 per bet)
Return: 266.00
Profit: +96.00

Marc Wilmots can lead Belgium to great things in Brazil and at Euro 2016

Belgium have the players to become a real force

Every so often a country brings through a golden generation and Marc Wilmots has all the tools at his disposal to go far with the current Belgian squads writes Alex Johnson...

The Belgian FA have recently announced that current national team head coach, Marc Wilmots, has signed a four-year contract extension.

His current contract which was due to expire at the end of the World Cup in Brazil, but the country's football bosses are keen for him to continue in the role.

Wilmots has been in charge of the national team since taking over from Georges Leekens in 2012 - Wilmots worked alongside Leekens as assistant coach.

This World Cup is Belgium's first major tournament since the 2002 tournament in Japan/South Korea and the Belgian FA have been delighted with the progress the squad has made so far under Wilmots, and how the future is looking beyond this tournament.

It has been said that Belgian football is going through something of a renaissance with a number of talented players at their disposal, who all seemed to have come through the ranks together. A few of these talents have been snapped up by various foreign clubs at some sky high prices, others will follow, perhaps after the World Cup campaign.

Wilmots is key to the progress that Belgium can make and the Belgian FA have realised this. There is no doubt that the 45-year-old was also being courted by some of Europe's major clubs as their next manager, so to add his experience with this group of players can been seen as a major coup.

The Belgian national side has often been seen as a fractured group, so to bring unity to a small nation which is divided by language (56% speak Flemish - which is part-Dutch by dialect - and 44% speak French) and largely due to this division, no-one seemed bothered about the Belgian national football team, but the former Standard Liege midfielder has contributed to a remarkable turnaround.

According to defender Jan Vertonghen there was once a match in Finland, in the lull period following the 2002 World Cup, where the Belgian travelling support was zero, such was the apathy towards the team.

Wilmots had a few coaching jobs after his playing career finished, plus he had a stab at being a football agent. He also tried to make a complete career change and ventured into politics when he became a senator for the French-speaking Liberal party, the Reformist Movement. However, his political career was not very successful and he resigned in 2005.

It was Dutch coach Dick Advocaat who announced Wilmots as his assistant when he became coach in 2009. The experienced tactician claimed that Wilmots had "energy bubbling out of his ears.".

Advocaat was soon tempted by an offer from Russia, so the Belgian FA went with the tried and tested Leekens, and he kept Wilmots as his number two.

Leekens resigned in 2012 when he felt he couldn't get the best from the up and coming talented squad, plus the fact that Belgium had dropped to number 62 in the FIFA world rankings. Nobody wanted the Belgian job and Wilmots was happy to remain as assistant, it was the players that ultimately made the case for the man from Dongleberg.

For the squad to give you the backing to be the manager of the national team must mean a lot, not only to the Football Association, but also to you - it's recognition that your methods have been accepted and that they can happily work under your direction. Wilmots appears to have earn this approval and respect in spades and some.

It's clear that Belgian football is getting better, slowly but surely, although, just like in South America, the best talent is being forced out of the national leagues and made to play all over the world. Some may say this helps develop the players, makes them more educated in footballing terms, and of course the huge salaries help.

This is demonstrated in the case of three top Belgian stars, Eden Hazard at Chelsea, Vincent Kompany at Manchester City and Zenit St Petersburg's Axel Wisel, who signed in a deal worth 40 million euros when he moved to Russia. All three are top earners at their clubs.

As Wilmots has been loyal to these players, they have given him loyalty in return and pride in the shirt and this has seen a real upturn in results, especially since 2012.

Wilmots has youth on his side in terms of the up and coming players as well. The talented Kevin De Bruyne is a starter on a regular basis, the 22-year-old is enjoying his football with the national side, after a frustrating spell with Premier League club Chelsea.

Romelu Lukaku, who was leading scorer in the Belgian league when he was aged just 16, has been asked to lead the line during the World Cup tournament, after Aston Villa's Christian Benteke was ruled out with an Achilles injury likely to keep him out until the New Year.

The Belgian FA developed a blueprint some time ago with regards to a 4-3-3 system, something which Wilmots uses the majority of the time, although he does tend to alter to a 4-1-4-1 formation at times, with Witsel sat in front of the back four. The attacking four or three are then able to find space.

The only question posed to this talented squad is in defence. Thibaut Courtois is a outstanding first-choice goalkeeper but the back four, with the exception of Kompany, is perhaps not as talented as the squad's attacking force.

Wilmots still relies on the veteran centre-half Daniel Van Buyten of Bayern Munich to partner Kompany. He also calls upon natural centre-halves Toby Alderweireld and Thomas Vermaelen as full-backs. This is Belgium's only real issue, that they could end up playing with four centre-halves along the back line.

Germany coach, Joachim Low, has gone on record to say that his second favourite team are the Belgians and with some luck they could make this World Cup tournament into a real outstanding one for Wilmots.

Even if things don't pan out as Belgium hope, and many predict, then the European Championships in France in two years time is another target to set their sights on.

The Costa Rican party goes going as they squeeze past Greece

Joel Campbell somehow lasted 120 minutes with enough energy to take a penalty

Costa Rica and Greece wasn't exactly the quarter-final we hoped for but it gave us some late drama and the Central American nation are still going strong.

Costa Rica booked their place in the quarter-finals of the World Cup as they defeated Greece on penalties in Recife.

After topping Group D, the Central Americans were able to rest some of their players in their final pool match against England and welcomed back Christian Bolanos and Michael Umana, while the Greeks made one alteration, with Andreas Samaris being rewarded for his goal off the bench in the win over the Ivory Coast with a starting place.

With neither nation having ever made it into the last eight of a World Cup, it always looked as if it was going to be an extremely tight affair between two of the surprise packages of the tournament and both sides started slowly, preferring to sit back and absorb any pressure with chances few and far between.

However, it was Costa Rica who had the first real opportunity early on as skipper Bryan Ruiz turned well on the edge of the area, finding Christian Bolanos on the left, but his effort was high and wide over the bar.

Slowly but surely Greece did work their way into the game and after a few speculative efforts from distance, Dimitrios Salpingidis had the best chance of the opening 45 minutes as Jose Holebas found him at the back post and the winger did everything right by playing it back across goal, but Keylor Navas was equal to the task and saved with his leg.

The second half again started slowly but Costa Rica broke the deadlock on 52 minutes when the ball found Ruiz on the edge of the area and the captain coolly passed home into the bottom right corner of Orestis Karnezis' goal.

There was then immediately a controversial moment as Vasilis Torosidis appeared to handle the ball in the area but the referee was unmoved and to add insult to injury, 12 minutes later the Central Americans were reduced to 10 men when Oscar Duarte was given a second yellow for a foul on Holebas.

Greece then made a number of attacking changes, with both Kostas Mitroglou and Theofanis Gekas coming on but they continued to struggle to create chances.

However, the pressure eventually told and in stoppage time Gekas turned well in the box to force a good save from Navas but the goalkeeper was powerless to stop the follow-up effort from Sokratis Papastathopoulos who smashed home to send the game into extra time.

It was understandably the Europeans who dominated against the ten men but the Costa Rican goalkeeper seemed in inspired from, making a string of fine stops as his defenders struggled to keep pace with their men.

Arguably the best of these came from Mitroglou, who after meeting another great ball from the left calmly side footed it towards the goal but just like in the first half against Salpingidis, Navas again spread himself well to save with his trailing leg.

The Ticos themselves had a couple of good breaks, with the fresh legs of Randall Brenes giving them some much needed respite on the counter-attack but they couldn't create any real chances and the match inevitably went to penalties.

With neither side ever having reached the quarter-finals of the World Cup, the pressure was on but you couldn't tell as the first seven were dispatched with aplomb despite the fatigue in the players' legs.

However, it was Greece's Gekas who was the unlucky man, as his well-struck effort was saved by Navas to his right and Michael Umana coolly slotted home to make it 5-3 on penalties and send Jorge Luis Pinto's men through.

Costa Rica will now meet Holland in the last eight on Saturday in what is sure to be another epic encounter in Salvador.

World Cup 2014 Report: Netherlands matched at massive odds before late win

Klaas finish: Huntelaar provided a late goal and assist

It's been a World Cup of comebacks so far, of substitutes scoring important goals, and of massive odds landing for Betfair customers. Adam Shearwood takes stock of the In-Play carnage during Netherlands v Mexico...

344,000 was matched on Mexico to qualify at odds between 1.121/8 and 1.84/5, the Netherlands were backed at 85.084/1 to win the game, and 100.099/1 to win 2-1. They also went out as far as 50.049/1 in the 2014 Winner market.

Those, just some of the remarkable stories of another rollercoaster encounter at this thrilling World Cup.

The Dutch now move to 6.611/2 clear fourth favourites to win the tournament outright, having been 9.08/1 to back pre-match. However, from the 48th to the 88th minute it had looked as though they were on their way out.

They trailed during that period to a wonderful Giovanni Dos Santos strike, the Mexican striker controlling the ball on his chest, showing great strength and balance to hold off Daley Blind, before striking a dipping volley into the bottom corner of Jasper Cillessen's net. It was a great way for his pre-match backers at odds of 12.011/1 to land their First Goalscorer bets.

Following the goal, the Dutch came right back into it. They forced corner after corner, but despite the pressure it looked as though they weren't going to find a way past inspired Mexican 'keeper Guillermo Ochoa - who kept goal like a ninja dressed as Mickey Mouse.

However, Robben's corner in the 88th minute was one too many for the Mexicans, who switched off allowing Wesley Sneijder - who'd been very poor to that point - the chance to snaffle a loose ball and drive his side level. Sneijder had been available at 6.411/2 pre-match to score anytime.

Another stat that was ticking up throughout the game was the number of times Mexican defenders lunged in on a flying Arjen Robben within their own penalty area. Again, it was one too many when Mexican legend Rafael Marquez stuck out a tired leg to impede the Dutch winger in the 94th minute.

Substitute Klaas Jan Huntelaar stepped forward to bury an emphatic spot-kick, send the Dutch supporters delirious, and complete another remarkable 90 minutes on the Betfair Exchange. Huntelaar had been available at 14.013/1 pre-match to score anytime.

Argentina v Switzerland: Bank on the Swiss to roll over Messi and co

Drmic and Shaqiri are a deadly duo

It's South America v Europe in this last 16 clash as Argentina take on Switzerland. Paul Robinson dissects it for us...

Argentina v Switzerland
Tuesday July 1, 17:00 BST
Live on BBC 1

Argentina picked up the maximum quota of points from Group F but they didn't exactly convince that they can go on and lift the trophy. A steady if not spectacular 2-1 win over Bosnia was followed by an uninspired performance against Iran that needed a moment of Messi magic to seal the 1-0 victory in injury time. With qualification already secured, the South Americans then went on to beat Nigeria 3-2, but again, they didn't look great - especially in defence.

Manager, Alejandro Sabella, must be concerned by a back four that have looked progressively worse as the tournament has gone on. Full backs, Zabaleta and Rojo, love to push on but that is leaving Fernandez and Garay exposed as Mascherano is the only midfielder who holds his position. 

Of the attacking players, only Lionel Messi is really pulling his weight as Sergio Aguero is seemingly carrying an injury and Gonzalo Higuain has looked more like a Sunday league player than one of the most sought after strikers in the world.

Switzerland qualified for the last 16 thanks to their 3-0 win over Honduras last Wednesday in what was by far and away their best performance of the tournament. They won their opener over Ecuador - with the last kick of the game - but the team ranked sixth in the FIFA rankings were then thrashed 5-2 by a rampant France.

Star man, Xherdan Shaqiri, helped himself to a hat trick against the Hondurans and he will be full of confidence after struggling to get much game time for Bayern Munich last season. He linked up excellently with lone striker, Josip Drmic, as the Nrnberg man set up two of Shaqiri's three goals.

The Swiss should get plenty of opportunities against the Argentine defence but it's their own back four that will need to be at their best to cope with Messi and co. 

Ottmar Hitzfeld has been around the block a few times though and he will definitely have a game plan in mind to thwart the Barcelona player. In qualifying his side conceded just six goals in 10 matches, keeping seven clean sheets in total. They may have shipped five against the French, but I wouldn't read too much into that.

Match Odds
Argentina 1.528/15 Switzerland 8.27/1 The Draw 4.57/2

These are the 90 minutes odds and Argentina seem plenty short enough at 1.528/15. Their margin of victory in their group games was by a single goal each time and Switzerland are better than any team they've faced thus far. 

The Europeans are a very solid side that are difficult to break down, while having a sprinkling of magic at the other end. We've already seen the knockout matches being tighter than the group games and I expect this to be no different.

Of course, Argentina, could blow The Swiss away if they were on top of their game, but we've not seen it so far and Sergio Aguero is struggling with injury. 

The value is in the draw for me, and once again, remember that this is for the 90 minute result.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.855/6 Under 2.5 Goals 2.166/5

The marginal favourite is for overs and with Messi, Higuain, Shaqiri and Drmic on the pitch it's not hard to see why. I wouldn't be so sure though and I am definitely keen to get involved with unders.

Switzerland's game plan will be to stifle the Argentina attack and then look to hit on the break. They will be patient in possession and I can see this one coming to the boil gradually as the game wears on.

First Goalscorer  

He is yet to hit the net at this year's World Cup but Josip Drmic netted 17 Bundesliga goals for the relegated Nrnberg and I'm backing him to break the deadlock at around the 12.5n/a mark. 

As already covered, the Argentina defence isn't look watertight and Switzerland's number 19 doesn't usually need many chances to find the back of the net.

Cash Out  

It's a big ask for Switzerland to qualify but they are available to back at 4.84/1 to do so and I can see that trading plenty shorter in-running - especially if Josip Drmic does open the scoring. Even if the game stays level for a long period, the price will contract and a cash out opportunity will present itself.

Recommended Bets
Back The Draw @ 4.57/2 (1pt)
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5 (2pts)
Back Josip Drmic to score first @ 12.5n/a

Best Cash Out
Back Switzerland to Qualify @ 4.84/1

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 24 pts
Returned: 29.27 pts
P/L: +5.27 pts

Belgium v USA: Red Devils to kick on after underwhelming group stage

Late goals have been something of a speciality for Belgium

After being hyped up so much in the build-up to this tournament the pressure may have weighed down on Belgium in the group stage but Evan Bartlett believes they should now be feeling settled and ready to take the World Cup by storm...

Belgium v USA
Tuesday July 1, 21:00
Live on BBC 1

Match Odds
Belgium 2.0421/20, USA 4.47/2, Draw 3.55/2

Despite three underwhelming performances in what was one of the easiest groups of the World Cup opening round, pre-tournament dark horses Belgium still managed to get through with a 100% record. Their victories over Algeria, Russia and South Korea were far from convincing but taking nine points from the group stage for the first time in their history will be a big confidence booster for the Red Devils.

In another boost,coach Marc Wilmots had the opportunity to rest some of his first team players for their final group game against South Korea. That breather for key players could prove vital to Belgium, particularly in comparison to the Americans who managed to qualify for the last 16 thanks to goal difference in what was arguably one of the toughest groups of the first round. 

Despite qualifying from that group, the USA managed just nine shots on target in their opening three matches - fewer than any other team who qualified for the last 16 and there is a feeling they could struggle to break down this resolute Belgian defence that has kept four clean sheets in its last five games. 

The Red Devils have won the last four meetings between the two sides, including a 4-2 victory in May last year, and I see no reason to bet against that run continuing at odds of 2.0421/20.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Belgium's backline has been their main asset so far in this World Cup - with goals hard to come by at the other end of the field the Red Devils have relied on defensive solidity to grind out results. But a flurry of injuries in that department - to Vincent Kompany, Thomas Vermaelen and Anthony Vanden Borre - will be a concern to Belgium, although Wilmots is confident that either Nacer Chadli or Moussa Dembele can slot in at full-back with Jan Vertonghen moving into the centre. 

Despite Belgium's apparent weakness at the back, the USA lack a really dangerous striker to exploit it. Although Clint Dempsey has chipped in with a couple of goals this game hardly promises to be a high scoring encounter. Unfortunately, the Over/Under 2.5 goals market reflects this too well and odds of 1.684/6 on Under 2.5 Goals does not look all that attractive. 

Instead, this match offers a good cash out opportunity. Back the 0-0 Correct Score at 9.417/2 before the game kicks off and cash out as the game gets underway and the odds begin to tumble. Just two of the 13 goals involving these two sides at the World Cup have been in the first-half of their matches.

Half-Time/Full-Time

Late goals have been something of a speciality for Belgium at this World Cup. All four of the Red Devils' goals have come in the last 20 minutes of games after generally making the most of possession and wearing their opponents down as the games have gone on. 

Adding that to the fact that the US travelled further than any other nation for their group games (10,188 miles) and Belgium less than any other (1,368 miles) means fatigue for the Americans could well be a major factor as the game moves into the latter stages. With humidity expected to be around 73 per cent in Salvador on Tuesday, back Draw/Belgium in the HT/FT market at odds of 5.69/2.

Half With Most Goals

With those facts in mind it also seems silly to miss out on the second-half being the Half with Most Goals at odds of 2.1211/10. In fact, all six of the games involving these two sides in the group stage witnessed more goals in the second-half than in the first.

Recommended Bets

Belgium to Win @ 2.0421/20 (1 pt)
Draw/Belgium for HT/FT @ 5.69/2 (1 pt)
Second Half to have most goals @ 2.1211/10 (2 pts)

Follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 17 pts
Returned: 12.52 pts
P/L: -4.48 pts

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Assyriska risk nothing

Party's Over: Today's the day the goals stop in Sweden

Jonkopings are heading south and their hosts are coming with them

Just after half time, Syrianska went 2-0 up on Degerfors. Throwing on Success Chimankpa Nwosu had an unintended consequence as Degerfors pulled one back. But it was alright in the end - a penalty made sure of the points. Success for Syrianska, success for the Joker.

Who continues to worship at the temple of lower-tier Swedish football today. Eighteen of Assyriska's last 35 Superettan home games have finished with Under 2.5 Goals, as have 10/19 away matches of Jonkopings Sodra (J-South, if you're one of the kids).

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1211/10 in Assyriska v Jonkopings Sodra

World Cup Opta Stats: Argentina v Switzerland

All eyes will be on Lionel Messi when Argentina face Switzerland.

Can Lionel Messi continue to inspire Argentina when they face Switzerland? Opta reveals all.

This will be the seventh international meeting between Argentina and Switzerland. Argentina are unbeaten in their previous six (W4 D2). Argentina are 1.511/2 to win within 90 minutes.

The only previous World Cup meeting between these two sides came back in 1966, when Argentina defeated Switzerland 2-0. Argentina are 2.3611/8 to win half-time/full-time.

After failing to score in seven successive World Cup appearances, Lionel Messi has netted four goals in his three appearances at the 2014 finals. Messi is 1.75/7 to score.

Argentina have won their last three World Cup second round ties; winning on penalties versus England in 1998 and beating Mexico in both 2006 and 2010. They are 1.251/4 to qualify.

Argentina have won only 3 of their last 10 World Cup matches against a European team (D4, L3). You can lay Argentina to win within 90 minutes at 1.528/15.

The Swiss have kept a clean sheet in seven of their last 10 World Cup finals matches. They are 7.613/2 to keep a clean sheet. 

Switzerland have won just one of their previous six World Cup matches against South American nations (W1 D1 L4), but this victory came earlier in this tournament v Ecuador. The Swiss are 4.84/1 to qualify.

Xherdan Shaqiri scored a hat-trick in Switzerland's final group game against Honduras - the 50th hat-trick in World Cup history. Shaqiri is 4.03/1 to score.

Argentina have had an average possession figure of 65% so far at this tournament - the highest in this finals and their highest average at a World Cup finals since 1966. They are 5.49/2 to win the competition.

Four of Argentina's last seven World Cup goals have come from outside the box, including half of their six goals (3) at this tournament. Messi is 4.1n/a to score the first goal.

Germany v Algeria: Merciless Muller to crush the Desert Warriors' dreams

Thomas Muller has been Germany's most potent attacking threat

Algeria have done superbly to reach the World Cup's knockout stage for the first time in their history, but Kevin Hatchard says they'll be undone by a Germany side who can play better than they have so far...

Germany v Algeria
Monday June 30, 21:00
Live on ITV 1
Match Odds: Germany 1.3130/100, Algeria 13.012/1, the draw 6.05/1

Germany

Bundestrainer Jogi Low says his Germany team has delivered in terms of results, but admits there's room for improvement in terms of performances, and I agree with that assessment. Germany topped Group G with a 4-0 demolition of Portugal, a 2-2 draw against Ghana and a 1-0 win over USA. None of the performances were close to the maximum Germany can achieve, even the thrashing of Portugal, a scoreline skewed by the first-half sending-off of centre-back Pepe. Low says his players weren't aggressive enough against Ghana, and didn't make the most of their chances against USA.

Top-scorer Thomas Muller has led the way with a series of excellent performances, and having netted four goals in three games, he is a contender to win the Golden Boot award for the second World Cup running. He is now trading at 5.39/2, having been available at 36.035/1 a few days before the tournament started. Muller's relentless work ethic, dizzying movement and cool finishing (the winner against USA was stunning) have helped him make a massive impact. Low says Muller is now amongst the best players in the world, and you'd struggle to argue otherwise. Opta tell us his four goals at this tournament have come from just six shots, and he now has nine goals in World Cup Finals matches.

The support for Muller could improve. Mesut Ozil has buzzed around promisingly but is yet to score or create a goal, and Mario Gotze scored against Ghana but was somewhat surprisingly replaced by Lukas Podolski for the game against USA. Podolski picked up an injury against the Americans which will keep him out of this match. Podolski's half-time replacement Miroslav Klose caused USA plenty of problems in the air, and given Algeria's weakness against crosses and high balls in general, Low must be tempted to start the veteran for the first time.

The return of Bastian Schweinsteiger against USA gave the midfield a bit more drive, so Low has a conundrum there too. Skipper Philipp Lahm (who was superb against USA) and Toni Kroos have two of the three midfield slots, so the other will be taken by either Schweinsteiger or Sami Khedira, neither of whom are fully fit. The back four will once again be unchanged, despite left-back Benedikt Howedes emerging as a bit of a weak link, especially going forward.

Algeria

Algeria have reached the last 16 of the World Cup for the first time, and the North Africans have historical motivation for winning this game. At the 1982 World Cup, Algeria beat West Germany 2-1 in the group stage, but they were ultimately denied progress when the Germans played out a convenient 1-0 win over Austria (the "Disgrace of Gijon") which took both neighbours through.

Algeria led Belgium 1-0 with 20 minutes to go but lost 2-1, they were excellent going forward in a 4-2 win over South Korea, and then they fought back well from conceding an early goal to draw 1-1 with Russia. Instead of ordering his players to dig in and hope for the best, Algeria coach Vahid Halilhodzic has been happy to attack.

Lone striker Islam Slimani is a key player - he scored against both South Korea and Russia, as well as netting four goals in qualifying. Attacking midfielder Sofiane Feghouli is a real threat with the timing of his runs into the box, as anyone who's watched him play for Valenica will know, but he's also been prepared to tackle and break up play.

Algeria spread the goals around (their six goals were netted by five different players), but the concern against Germany will be their defence. They shipped five goals in the group stage, and they will have to be incredibly disciplined to combat Germany's swift interchanges in attack. Jogi Low has predicted that Algeria will be more defensive than they've been in previous matches, and will look to release their dangerous front four on the counter-attack.

Halilhodzic has few injury concerns, and the only change to his line-up could be in defence. Madjid Bougherra could be restored to the starting XI after he was omitted against Russia.

Match Odds

Although Algeria have battled hard and looked bright in attack at times, they are facing a superior side in Porto Alegre. Germany have better players in all departments, and I suspect their 2-2 draw with Ghana in the group stage got their World Cup wake-up call out of the way nice and early. All the talk in the German camp has been about avoiding complacency and showing Algeria respect, and I suspect they mean it. Germany are unbeaten, and capable of going up two or three more gears.

No-one should belittle the Desert Warriors' achievements, but they should be put into context. South Korea and Russia hugely underperformed, and Algeria took advantage. This is by far Algeria's biggest test, and I think it'll be the end of their adventure. The price of 1.331/3 for the German win looks fair, but it can be boosted by backing Germany -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9210/11.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The market expects goals, with Over 2.5 Goals trading at 1.664/6, and unders at 2.486/4. I understand why, as both teams have scored in every game so far. However, Germany do sometimes slip into a habit of passing sideways a lot when they dominate possession, and against USA they weren't quite as ruthless in attack as they should have been. My suspicion is that we will see goals, but 1.664/6 is too short to tempt me.

First Goalscorer

The odds on Muller to score at any time are a reasonable 1.8810/11, but I like the look of backing him to be First Goalscorer at 4.77/2. The Bayern Munich forward has scored the opening goal against both Portugal and USA, and he is Germany's most potent attacking weapon.

On the Algerian side of things, attacking focal point Islam Slimani is 11.5n/a, while the dangerous Sofiane Feghouli is a chunky 15.5n/a.

Recommended Bets

Back Thomas Muller to be First Goalscorer at 4.77/2
Back Germany -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9210/11

2014 World Cup P/L

Points Staked: 12

Points Returned: 15.91

P/L: +3.91 points

Belgium v USA: Red Devils to kick on after underwhelming group stage

Late goals have been something of a speciality for Belgium

After being hyped up so much in the build-up to this tournament the pressure may have weighed down on Belgium in the group stage but Evan Bartlett believes they should now be feeling settled and ready to take the World Cup by storm...

Belgium v USA
Tuesday July 1, 21:00
Live on BBC 1

Match Odds
Belgium 2.0421/20, USA 4.47/2, Draw 3.55/2

Despite three underwhelming performances in what was one of the easiest groups of the World Cup opening round, pre-tournament dark horses Belgium still managed to get through with a 100% record. Their victories over Algeria, Russia and South Korea were far from convincing but taking nine points from the group stage for the first time in their history will be a big confidence booster for the Red Devils.

In another boost,coach Marc Wilmots had the opportunity to rest some of his first team players for their final group game against South Korea. That breather for key players could prove vital to Belgium, particularly in comparison to the Americans who managed to qualify for the last 16 thanks to goal difference in what was arguably one of the toughest groups of the first round. 

Despite qualifying from that group, the USA managed just nine shots on target in their opening three matches - fewer than any other team who qualified for the last 16 and there is a feeling they could struggle to break down this resolute Belgian defence that has kept four clean sheets in its last five games. 

The Red Devils have won the last four meetings between the two sides, including a 4-2 victory in May last year, and I see no reason to bet against that run continuing at odds of 2.0421/20.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Belgium's backline has been their main asset so far in this World Cup - with goals hard to come by at the other end of the field the Red Devils have relied on defensive solidity to grind out results. But a flurry of injuries in that department - to Vincent Kompany, Thomas Vermaelen and Anthony Vanden Borre - will be a concern to Belgium, although Wilmots is confident that either Nacer Chadli or Moussa Dembele can slot in at full-back with Jan Vertonghen moving into the centre. 

Despite Belgium's apparent weakness at the back, the USA lack a really dangerous striker to exploit it. Although Clint Dempsey has chipped in with a couple of goals this game hardly promises to be a high scoring encounter. Unfortunately, the Over/Under 2.5 goals market reflects this too well and odds of 1.684/6 on Under 2.5 Goals does not look all that attractive. 

Instead, this match offers a good cash out opportunity. Back the 0-0 Correct Score at 9.417/2 before the game kicks off and cash out as the game gets underway and the odds begin to tumble. Just two of the 13 goals involving these two sides at the World Cup have been in the first-half of their matches.

Half-Time/Full-Time

Late goals have been something of a speciality for Belgium at this World Cup. All four of the Red Devils' goals have come in the last 20 minutes of games after generally making the most of possession and wearing their opponents down as the games have gone on. 

Adding that to the fact that the US travelled further than any other nation for their group games (10,188 miles) and Belgium less than any other (1,368 miles) means fatigue for the Americans could well be a major factor as the game moves into the latter stages. With humidity expected to be around 73 per cent in Salvador on Tuesday, back Draw/Belgium in the HT/FT market at odds of 5.69/2.

Half With Most Goals

With those facts in mind it also seems silly to miss out on the second-half being the Half with Most Goals at odds of 2.1211/10. In fact, all six of the games involving these two sides in the group stage witnessed more goals in the second-half than in the first.

Recommended Bets

Belgium to Win @ 2.0421/20 (1 pt)
Draw/Belgium for HT/FT @ 5.69/2 (1 pt)
Second Half to have most goals @ 2.1211/10 (2 pts)

Follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 17 pts
Returned: 12.52 pts
P/L: -4.48 pts

Wimbledon Women's Betting: Back Bouchard to crash Cornet's party

Is Bouchard set to halt Cornet's progress.. Is Bouchard set to halt Cornet's progress..

The shock exits are coming thick and fast and Abelson Info discuss whether or not there are more
on the way on Monday...

After an eventful end to the first week of Wimbledon, the ladies draw has now lost the top two seeds with both Serena Williams and Li Na crashing out of the tournament.

Li exited in disappointing fashion against Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova, but the American world number one was undoubtedly the biggest surprise after dominating the first set against Alize Cornet.

However, it wasn't enough as the French star battled back brilliantly to send Williams home, and with all the talk of a quarter-final grudge match with Maria Sharapova over, the draw really is opening up ahead of the second week.

As expected, the fourth round has some exceptional matches to treat us, and while there are still some third round matters to be decided, Monday is likely to provide another gripping day's worth of action.

It all begins with Williams' conqueror, Cornet, as she takes on Eugenie Bouchard with the Canadian labelled as one of the 'rising stars' on the WTA tour, but in reality, she is arguably already amongst the top players in the game.

The 20-year-old is having a memorable year that is going from strength to strength having reached the semi-finals of both the Australian Open and French Open.

In addition, she has added the first of what is expected to be many WTA titles to her trophy cabinet, and all that has resulted in her climbing the world rankings up into 13th. While Cornet did win their only previous meeting, that was in Strasbourg last year on clay, and Bouchard has undoubtedly moved up several gears since then and will be confident of extending her good form on grass.

Nevertheless, Cornet arrives off the back of dumping the top seed out of the tournament, and her confidence will be sky high which makes this clash all the more intriguing.

However, given Bouchard's upward trajectory, we expect the Canadian to continue her solid form although her run without dropping a set at the tournament thus far could come under threat.

Elsewhere, with Williams no longer in the picture, Sharapova will be relishing the situation given her success in Paris earlier this month.

While a quarter-final encounter with Bouchard would undoubtedly produce some brilliant tennis, she will not be looking beyond Angelique Kerber, more so now that the top seeds and tournament favourites are starting to fall.

However, Sharapova holds a 4-1 advantage in their head-to-head record, winning their last three meetings, and the Russian star will be in no mood to let another chance at a Grand Slam title slip out of her grasp.

Meanwhile, back our tournament tip Agnieszka Radwanska to have enough to overcome the threat of Ekaterina Makarova, while Petra Kvitova will fancy her chances against Shuai Peng.

In addition, with Na out of the tournament, Caroline Wozniacki is considered a strong favourite to advance to the next round ahead of her clash with Zahlavova Strycova.

Recommended Bets

Back Bouchard to beat Cornet 2-0 @ 2.26/5
Back Over 20.5 Games in Kerber-Sharapova @ 1.8910/11

Cross-Sport Multiple: Back Colombia to reach the last eight

Even without their star striker, Colombia have impressed

Andrew Hughes thinks Colombia are good value to beat Uruguay on Saturday and help land another cross-sport multiple in the process

Bet 1: Back Colombia to beat Uruguay at 2.01/1

The moment that Luis Suarez took a fancy to Giorgio Chiellini's shoulder, Uruguay's World Cup hopes were pretty much over. Without their main goal threat they are impotent, as they showed against Costa Rica in their opening game and Colombia should be able to reach the quarter-finals at their expense. 

The Colombians are also missing their leading striker, Radamel Falcao, but have had longer to adapt to his absence and without him, attacking midfielders James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado have come into their own, helping Los Cafeteros to find the net nine times on their way to topping Group C. 

Colombia have only beaten Uruguay once in their last eight meetings, but they thrashed them 4-0 in Bogota in their World Cup qualifying campaign and are good value for another victory on Saturday. 

Bet 2: Back Castleford to beat Salford at 1.251/4

Salford were the team who brought Castleford's unbeaten start to the season to an end, back in March, but there have been few highlights since then for the Red Devils, who are two places off the bottom of Super League and have just one win from nine.

Big money signing Rangi Chase was instrumental in the reverse fixture but he hasn't been able to do much to arrest Salford's slide and he can expect a hostile reception when he returns to the Jungle on Saturday. 

But though the fans may not forgive him, the team have moved on. Young replacement Mark Sneyd has been a revelation for Tigers and although they've lost their last two, they are still riding high in the table, with a Challenge Cup Semi-Final to look forward to. Back Castleford to return to winning ways. 

Bet 3: Back Yorkshire to beat Nottinghamshire at 2.01/1

Nottinghamshire go into Saturday's Natwest T20 Blast two places higher than Yorkshire and slight favourites to strengthen their play-off chances. 

The Outlaws have gone three games without defeat, but having played two more than Yorkshire, their record is less impressive. Three of their four victories have come against the bottom three sides in the North Division and they have lost three. 

By contrast, Yorkshire have lost just once and are in tremendous form with the bat, with Jonny Bairstow, Alex Lees and star overseas player Aaron Finch all amongst the runs. The momentum is with the Tykes and they are good value for the win. 

Total Odds for this multiple: 5.04/1 Remember, multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

Cross-Sport Multiple P/L 2014

Staked: 50 pts
Returned: 65.03 pts
P/L: + 15.03 pts

Costa Rica v Greece: Back gritty Greeks to edge a close one

Greece boss Fernando Santos could be celebrating again

Two of the surprise qualifiers for the last 16 go head-to-head on Sunday, and Dave Farrar suspects Greece's extra experience will prove crucial...

Costa Rica v Greece
Sunday June 29, 21:00
Live on ITV 1
Match Odds: Costa Rica 2.526/4, Greece 3.3512/5, The Draw 3.211/5

Match Odds

So, it's the unlikeliest World Cup last 16 game of them all, it's a first ever meeting between Greece and Costa Rica, and we now have to find a way to make a profit from it. There's no question that Costa Rica's route through to this match has been the more impressive, and I don't have an issue with them being favourites to beat the first team since Cameroon in 1990 to make it out of the Group Stage with a goal difference of minus 2. We all know how Cameroon's journey went from there, though, and how close they came to reaching the semi finals, and I have a feeling that Greece might just be a shade of value to qualify, having found form at the right time.

Greece were lucky in the manner of their win against Cote D'Ivoire, with a highly debatable last-minute penalty, but the inclusion of Giorgios Karagounis in their side for the first time at this tournament had seen them dictate the game for large periods, and I felt that they were deserving winners. As well as Karagounis, they'll have that other old stager Kostas Katsouranis back after his red card in the previous match, and they'll look to control the attritional midfield battle, a key area against Costa Rica. The two Greek players who have impressed me the most, however, are Borussia Dortmund's Sokratis in the centre of defence and the left-back Jose Holebas, who doesn't play much like a left-back at all.

Greece will more than likely be without their goalkeeper Oresis Karnezis here, and that is a worry, but the question with Costa Rica is whether they can realistically go any further. Their qualification campaign was based on a solid defence, and so too has been their progress here, but there were signs against England (and I'm convinced that Costa Rica played to 100% of their ability in that game) that their hard-running style was starting to take its toll.

I see this as being an extremely tight game, and one which may well go to extra time, but I like the idea of siding with Greece to edge it. These two remind me of two evenly matched fighters, with one having just that little bit more experience. Greece, unquestionably, know how to win. And the likelihood is that they'll do it by a single goal: each of their seven wins at major tournaments have been by that margin.

Over/Under 1.5 Goals

So, I'll take Greece to qualify at 2.166/5, and in terms of the other markets, I can't see this featuring many goals at all. Backing the 0-0 Correct Score at 7.413/2 is clearly very tempting, as the sides look like cancelling each other out, but I want to give myself that little bit of insurance, and so I'll play Under 1.5 Goals at 2.56/4. That doesn't feel like a particularly reckless bet: Greece were a little more open against Cote D'Ivoire, but they needed to win, and their other matches were much more in character. A 0-0 against Japan and a rolling over by an exceptional Colombian side. Costa Rica haven't yet conceded a goal from open play at this World Cup, Edinson Cavani's penalty the only time that the brilliant Keylor Navas has let in a goal.

If you're looking for a trade, then the statistics suggest might want to take a look at the Half Time Correct Score market, given that none of Costa Rica's four goals at this tournament have been scored before the 44th minute, and each of Greece's four World Cup goals have come after the 42nd minute. Anyone looking for a trade may well want to steer themselves in that direction with the 0-0 scoreline in the Half Time market currently trading at 2.26/5.

To Score

Considering the amount that Holebas gets forward, and given that it's hard to find another obvious goalscorer on the pitch in what I see as a low scoring game, then I'll take him at a fancy price to score at any time. He's scored nine goals in his Olympiakos career, averaging one every ten games, and he looked a real goalscoring threat in the win over Cote D'Ivoire, hitting the underside of the crossbar after one first-half surge.

In terms of corners, I think that the market has it right in expecting a low make up, and a high bookings count would be an obvious play, but far too obvious for my liking in this card light tournament.

It's not a game in which to have a gigantic investment, nor is it necessarily a game to watch, but my suggestions are as follows. Good luck, we may all need it on this most difficult game to read.

Recommended Bets

Back Greece to Qualify @ 2.166/5
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.56/4
Back Jose Holebas To Score @ 11.5n/a

2014 World Cup P/L (including pre-tournament bets)

Points Staked: 26
Points Returned: 36.35
P/L: +10.35 points

Wimbledon Women's Betting: Back Kvitova to end Williams' stay

Expect Kvitova to pull off a gritty win against Venus. Expect Kvitova to pull off a gritty win against Venus.

The third round gets underway at SW19 on Friday, and Abelson Info take a closer look at the schedule as some big hitters prepare to face off...

The bottom half of the draw has already lost the likes of Azarenka, Errani and Stosur, but despite there still being a number of top seeds in contention, the draw is undoubtedly opening up for a surprise star to emerge.

Both Li Na and Caroline Wozniacki will be confident of making the fourth round with the latter facing qualifier Ana Konjuh, while the Chinese star will face a slightly more complicated afternoon's work when she takes on Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova.

Nevertheless, expect the second seed and world number 16 to set up an intriguing clash in the next round as the race for Wimbledon glory begins to heat up.

Elsewhere, two youngsters that we picked out to produce opening round upsets have gone one further by making this stage, and now Caroline Garcia and Michelle Larcher de Brito will be relishing the prospect of extending their stay in London.

After seeing off Sara Errani in a real battle in the first round, things were a little easier for Garcia last time out in her straight sets win over Varvara Lepchenko.

While she will now have to overcome another seeded player in Ekaterina Makarova, this talented young Frenchwoman is delivering on her early career promise and will fancy her chances of matching her opponent.

Makarova won their only previous meeting which was in Washington last year, and while Garcia was only able to win just two games on that occasion, a change of surface and upturn in form could ensure that this clash is a much closer affair.

Meanwhile, Larcher de Brito has already defeated Kuznetsova and Gajdosova, but this is where she will really need to bring her top form as she prepares to face one of our tournament tips in the form of Agnieszka Radwanska.

The Polish fourth seed has coasted through her opening two rounds, but if Larcher de Brito can summon the kind of inspirational tennis she displayed against Maria Sharapova at Wimbledon last year, anything could be possible for the Portuguese youngster.

Lauren Davis is also back in action on Thursday as the next crop of stars continue to shine this year, but it is understandable that most eyes will be fixed on Venus Williams as she looks to roll back the years ahead of facing Petra Kvitova.

The big-hitting Czech ace leads their head-to-head record by three wins to one, with Williams' only victory coming back in 2012 in Miami, although it is worth noting that the pair have never played on grass.

The world number 31 obviously isn't the same force that she used to be, but she will have enough hunger and pride to put on a show at what was once her second home.

While Kvitova looks in ominous form, all four previous meetings between these two have gone the distance, and we expect Williams to put up a real fight even if this will likely be her last outing at SW19 this year.

Recommended Bets:
Back Kvitova to beat V Williams 2-1 @ 3.814/5
Back Garcia to beat Makarova @ 3.02/1

James Rodriguez blasts Colombia past Uruguay

James Rodriguez celebrates his stunning strike against Uruguay

Colombia are starting to look like a real force and in James Rodriguez they have a genuine superstar on their hands.

Two goals from James Rodriguez were enough for Colombia as they beat Uruguay 2-0 to advance to the quarter-finals of the World Cup.

The game was always going to be a clash of styles with the flashy and exciting Colombians facing off against the industrious Uruguayans who were of course without their suspended talisman Luis Suarez.

As both sides walked out for the national anthems, the atmosphere in Rio de Janeiro was electric and Los Cafeteros were quick to assert themselves on the game, with the influential duo of James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado getting plenty of early touches.

In contrast, just like on some of their previous outings, Oscar Tabarez's men seemed happy to sit on the edge of the area and defend stoutly knowing that their opponents' would inevitably leave gaps for the likes of Edinson Cavani, Diego Forlan and Cristian Rodriguez to try and exploit.

However, this only allowed the Colombians to enjoy themselves with both Juan Zuniga and Cuadrado trying their luck from distance and despite barely testing Fernando Muslera in the Uruguay goal, it seemed inevitable that it would be Jose Pekerman's men who would break the deadlock.

After a few more attempts, they finally got their wish and in spectacular style as, following a nice spell of possession, the ball was nodded to James Rodriguez who took one touch off his chest before rifling a left foot volley from 25 yards in off the underside of the crossbar to open the scoring in breath-taking fashion on 28 minutes.

The Monaco man's fourth goal of the tournament seemed to spark Uruguay into life and they immediately showed more attacking endeavour, with perhaps their best chance coming from an Edinson Cavani free kick which curled just over David Ospina's net.

After that the proceedings went into something of a lull in the final minutes of the opening stanza but it was Colombia who started the second half stronger and skipper Mario Yepes almost immediately doubled their lead with a header, only for his attempt to be well blocked by Jose Maria Gimenez.

Then after a nice passage of play, Colombian left back Pablo Armero found room and whipped a brilliant ball into Cuadrado but rather than selfishly go for goal himself from a tight angle, he headed back to Rodriguez who was on hand to tap home from close range and double the Colombians' lead on 49 minutes.

Again conceding seemed to wake the Uruguayans and with Tabarez compelled to make attacking changes, there appeared to be plenty of twists and turns left in the game.

Los Cafeteros' extra quality was obvious though and they seemed to be enjoying playing to the crowd at the Maracana, stroking the ball around with finesse and aplomb, which often invited some questionable tackles from their South American cousins who at times simply couldn't get near them.

Despite the size of the challenge however, La Celeste were in no mood to give up with Cristian Rodriguez showing plenty of desire in midfield and he was perhaps unlucky not to grab an equaliser when he dribbled past a couple of defenders before unleashing a fierce left-footed strike from 25 yards only to find Ospina equal to the challenge, comfortably beating the ball away.

This wasn't the last time the goalkeeper was called into action as later Cavani forced him into a save down low to his right from the edge of the area while he also did well to scupper arguably Uruguay's chance of the match when full-back Maxi Pereira scrambled through, only for the stopper to spread himself well to maintain his clean sheet.

In the end, Colombia held on for a deserved win and Pekerman will now take his troops north to Fortaleza where they will meet the hosts Brazil on Friday evening.

Against All Odds: Wily Greeks to outfox Costa Rica

The Greeks should make the last eight

Two of the surprise qualifiers for the knockout stage meet in the last 16 tonight and Paul Robinson thinks Greece will edge Costa Rica.

Costa Rica v Greece
Sunday June 29, 21:00
Live on ITV 1

Costa Rica provided the shock of the tournament when they finished as winners of Group D having been written off before a ball was kicked. Victories over Uruguay and Italy were good enough to see them through and while they could only draw 0-0 with England, their job had already been done.

The South and Central American nations have had the edge in this World Cup so far and 'Ticos' will be hoping that continues tonight. I wouldn't be so sure though as Jorge Luis Pinto's side really aren't that good a team and they looked a little 'leggy' in their match against England. They play a high-energy style and that could well be catching up with them already.

Greece somehow qualified from their group despite having a goal difference of minus two. To be fair to them though, they bounced back really well from the 3-0 loss to Colombia as they then held Japan to a 0-0 draw, after being reduced to 10 men in the first half. 

With everything resting on victory over the Ivory Coast, Fernando Santos' men showed their big tournament experience as they clinched a 2-1 win, courtesy of a Georgios Samaras injury time penalty. The Greeks actually performed very well in that game and while they aren't always easy on the eye, they know how to get the job done when it matters.

I'm very surprised that Costa Rica are the favourites to progress to the Quarter Finals, so with their price trading at around the 1.845/6 mark, I have to make them to qualify my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Costa Rica to Qualify v Greece @ 1.845/6 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 173 pts
Returned: 187.60 pts
P/L: + 14.60 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

France v Nigeria: Another flying start from the French is your best route to profit

Karim Benzema will look to add to his three-goal tally

After a sensational 12 winners from 14 tips on the tournament so far, James Eastham picks out the smartest selections on Monday's quarter-final in Brasilia...

France v Nigeria
Monday 30 June, 17:00 BST
Live on BBC1

Match Odds
France 1.51/2, Nigeria 8.415/2, The Draw 4.67/2

Do France really deserve to be as short as 1.51/2 to win this game? I'm not so sure. They romped through their opening two games against Honduras (3-0) and Switzerland (5-2) but then lost momentum against Ecuador (0-0) in their final group match (admittedly with a weakened side), which has affected my impression of the team.

Les Bleus obviously deserve to be favourites to win this game in 90 minutes and will probably make it through to the quarter-finals, but it is easy to get carried away by the fact France are now a side that everyone seems to fancy, rather than focusing on the cold, hard facts.

Let's not forget that the Super Eagles kept consecutive clean sheets against Iran (0-0) and Bosnia ((1-0) and then gave a good account of themselves against Argentina (3-2 defeat) in a game where few people reckoned they had any hope of troubling Lionel Messi and co. I'm unwilling to oppose France - but I won't be backing them at 1.51/2, either.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Overs 1.9420/21, Unders 2.0421/20

When you look at France and Nigeria's results at the tournament so far, there is no clear goals pattern: France put three goals past Honduras while keeping a clean sheet and then thrashed Switzerland (5-2) but rounded off their group campaign with an unexpectedly tame goalless draw against Ecuador.

Nigeria kept things tight against Iran (0-0) and Bosnia (1-0) but livened up when they contributed far more than expected to an open encounter against Argentina (3-2).

So - will France defend stoutly, as they did against Honduras and Ecuador, or slacken at some point, as they did against Switzerland? Will Nigeria goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama and his back four produce a sound defensive performance, as they did against Iran and (to a lesser extent) Bosnia, or make mistakes, as they did against Argentina? The prices make Overs/Unders roughly a 50-50 call, which looks right. For me, this is a 'no bet' market.

Half Time

One of the features of France's opening two games was how positively and sharply they started both matches. In their first game against Honduras it took them until the 45th minute to take the lead thanks to a Karim Benzema penalty, but by then they had already hit the crossbar and come close to scoring on other occasions. Even more impressively they raced into a 3-0 half-time lead against Switzerland in their second game, only playing more cautiously in their final game against Ecuador when there was little at stake.

France will have gained a great deal of confidence from starting so impressively in those opening two games and will look to take control from the outset here. It's worth remembering as well that Nigeria conceded early (third minute) against Argentina and went in 2-1 down at half-time in that match. The odds-against price on France leading at the interval is just about worth taking.

To Score

When France faced Switzerland we flagged up Blaise Matuidi as an excellent bet at 8.615/2, and he duly delivered by finding the net with a fine left-foot finish.

Following that smart goal, and given that Matuidi has got into good scoring positions on several other occasions, Matuidi's price has shortened, but the 5.59/2 on him to find the net in this game is still tempting. If you're looking for a goalscorer bet on this game, Matuidi is the selection.

Cash Out Opportunity

If, like me, you fancy France to start strongly, then backing Over 2.5 Goals pre-kick-off might offer you a decent cash-out opportunity. An early goal (for either team) would see the odds on Over 2.5 Goals shorten significantly and then you may be able to lock in a profit from this market.

Best Bet
France Half Time @ 2.0811/10

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 14pts
Returned: 29.51pts
P/L: +15.51pts

World Cup Opta Stats: France v Nigeria

Will France be celebrating after their match with Nigeria?

France have impressed during this World Cup but have they got what it takes to beat Nigeria and move into the quarter-finals? Opta rates their chances.

This will be only the second international meeting between France and Nigeria. The Super Eagles won the previous meeting 1-0 in Saint-Etienne back in June 2009. Nigeria are 8.27/1 to win.

Les Blues have lost two of their last three World Cup matches against African nations (2002 v Senegal and 2010 v South Africa). They beat Togo between these two defeats, in 2006. Nigeria are 4.84/1 to qualify.

Nigeria have scored a goal in all but one of their previous 10 World Cup finals matches against European sides. They are 1.728/11 to score.

Nigeria have only won one of their last 11 World Cup matches. France are 1.511/2 to win the tie within 90 minutes.

Nigeria have lost both of their previous World Cup second round ties - 1-2 v Italy in 1994 and 1-4 v Denmark in 1998. France are 2.3411/8 to win half-time/full-time.

France have won all three of their previous second round ties at the World Cup (2-0 v Italy in 1986, 1-0 v Paraguay in 1998 and 3-1 v Spain in 2006). They are 1.251/4 to qualify.

Les Blues attempted more shots at goal (50; excl. blocked) than any other side during the 2014 World Cup group stages. Over 2.5 goals is 1.9210/11.

Nigerian goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama kept more clean sheets than any other goalkeeper during the 2013-14 French Ligue 1 season for Lille. Under 2.5 is 2.021/1.

On the last five occasions that France have progressed past round 1 in the World Cup, they have reached the semi-final stage (1958, 1982, 1986, 1998 and 2006). France are 2.829/5 to reach the last four.

Karim Benzema has scored nine goals in his last nine appearances for France, including three goals in his three appearances at this World Cup. Benzema is 2.26/5 to find the net.

воскресенье, 29 июня 2014 г.

Argentina v Switzerland: Bank on the Swiss to roll over Messi and co

Drmic and Shaqiri are a deadly duo

It's South America v Europe in this last 16 clash as Argentina take on Switzerland. Paul Robinson dissects it for us...

Argentina v Switzerland
Tuesday July 1, 17:00 BST
Live on BBC 1

Argentina picked up the maximum quota of points from Group F but they didn't exactly convince that they can go on and lift the trophy. A steady if not spectacular 2-1 win over Bosnia was followed by an uninspired performance against Iran that needed a moment of Messi magic to seal the 1-0 victory in injury time. With qualification already secured, the South Americans then went on to beat Nigeria 3-2, but again, they didn't look great - especially in defence.

Manager, Alejandro Sabella, must be concerned by a back four that have looked progressively worse as the tournament has gone on. Full backs, Zabaleta and Rojo, love to push on but that is leaving Fernandez and Garay exposed as Mascherano is the only midfielder who holds his position. 

Of the attacking players, only Lionel Messi is really pulling his weight as Sergio Aguero is seemingly carrying an injury and Gonzalo Higuain has looked more like a Sunday league player than one of the most sought after strikers in the world.

Switzerland qualified for the last 16 thanks to their 3-0 win over Honduras last Wednesday in what was by far and away their best performance of the tournament. They won their opener over Ecuador - with the last kick of the game - but the team ranked sixth in the FIFA rankings were then thrashed 5-2 by a rampant France.

Star man, Xherdan Shaqiri, helped himself to a hat trick against the Hondurans and he will be full of confidence after struggling to get much game time for Bayern Munich last season. He linked up excellently with lone striker, Josip Drmic, as the Nrnberg man set up two of Shaqiri's three goals.

The Swiss should get plenty of opportunities against the Argentine defence but it's their own back four that will need to be at their best to cope with Messi and co. 

Ottmar Hitzfeld has been around the block a few times though and he will definitely have a game plan in mind to thwart the Barcelona player. In qualifying his side conceded just six goals in 10 matches, keeping seven clean sheets in total. They may have shipped five against the French, but I wouldn't read too much into that.

Match Odds
Argentina 1.528/15 Switzerland 8.27/1 The Draw 4.57/2

These are the 90 minutes odds and Argentina seem plenty short enough at 1.528/15. Their margin of victory in their group games was by a single goal each time and Switzerland are better than any team they've faced thus far. 

The Europeans are a very solid side that are difficult to break down, while having a sprinkling of magic at the other end. We've already seen the knockout matches being tighter than the group games and I expect this to be no different.

Of course, Argentina, could blow The Swiss away if they were on top of their game, but we've not seen it so far and Sergio Aguero is struggling with injury. 

The value is in the draw for me, and once again, remember that this is for the 90 minute result.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.855/6 Under 2.5 Goals 2.166/5

The marginal favourite is for overs and with Messi, Higuain, Shaqiri and Drmic on the pitch it's not hard to see why. I wouldn't be so sure though and I am definitely keen to get involved with unders.

Switzerland's game plan will be to stifle the Argentina attack and then look to hit on the break. They will be patient in possession and I can see this one coming to the boil gradually as the game wears on.

First Goalscorer  

He is yet to hit the net at this year's World Cup but Josip Drmic netted 17 Bundesliga goals for the relegated Nrnberg and I'm backing him to break the deadlock at around the 12.5n/a mark. 

As already covered, the Argentina defence isn't look watertight and Switzerland's number 19 doesn't usually need many chances to find the back of the net.

Cash Out  

It's a big ask for Switzerland to qualify but they are available to back at 4.84/1 to do so and I can see that trading plenty shorter in-running - especially if Josip Drmic does open the scoring. Even if the game stays level for a long period, the price will contract and a cash out opportunity will present itself.

Recommended Bets
Back The Draw @ 4.57/2 (1pt)
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5 (2pts)
Back Josip Drmic to score first @ 12.5n/a

Best Cash Out
Back Switzerland to Qualify @ 4.84/1

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 24 pts
Returned: 29.27 pts
P/L: +5.27 pts

James Rodriguez blasts Colombia past Uruguay

James Rodriguez celebrates his stunning strike against Uruguay

Colombia are starting to look like a real force and in James Rodriguez they have a genuine superstar on their hands.

Two goals from James Rodriguez were enough for Colombia as they beat Uruguay 2-0 to advance to the quarter-finals of the World Cup.

The game was always going to be a clash of styles with the flashy and exciting Colombians facing off against the industrious Uruguayans who were of course without their suspended talisman Luis Suarez.

As both sides walked out for the national anthems, the atmosphere in Rio de Janeiro was electric and Los Cafeteros were quick to assert themselves on the game, with the influential duo of James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado getting plenty of early touches.

In contrast, just like on some of their previous outings, Oscar Tabarez's men seemed happy to sit on the edge of the area and defend stoutly knowing that their opponents' would inevitably leave gaps for the likes of Edinson Cavani, Diego Forlan and Cristian Rodriguez to try and exploit.

However, this only allowed the Colombians to enjoy themselves with both Juan Zuniga and Cuadrado trying their luck from distance and despite barely testing Fernando Muslera in the Uruguay goal, it seemed inevitable that it would be Jose Pekerman's men who would break the deadlock.

After a few more attempts, they finally got their wish and in spectacular style as, following a nice spell of possession, the ball was nodded to James Rodriguez who took one touch off his chest before rifling a left foot volley from 25 yards in off the underside of the crossbar to open the scoring in breath-taking fashion on 28 minutes.

The Monaco man's fourth goal of the tournament seemed to spark Uruguay into life and they immediately showed more attacking endeavour, with perhaps their best chance coming from an Edinson Cavani free kick which curled just over David Ospina's net.

After that the proceedings went into something of a lull in the final minutes of the opening stanza but it was Colombia who started the second half stronger and skipper Mario Yepes almost immediately doubled their lead with a header, only for his attempt to be well blocked by Jose Maria Gimenez.

Then after a nice passage of play, Colombian left back Pablo Armero found room and whipped a brilliant ball into Cuadrado but rather than selfishly go for goal himself from a tight angle, he headed back to Rodriguez who was on hand to tap home from close range and double the Colombians' lead on 49 minutes.

Again conceding seemed to wake the Uruguayans and with Tabarez compelled to make attacking changes, there appeared to be plenty of twists and turns left in the game.

Los Cafeteros' extra quality was obvious though and they seemed to be enjoying playing to the crowd at the Maracana, stroking the ball around with finesse and aplomb, which often invited some questionable tackles from their South American cousins who at times simply couldn't get near them.

Despite the size of the challenge however, La Celeste were in no mood to give up with Cristian Rodriguez showing plenty of desire in midfield and he was perhaps unlucky not to grab an equaliser when he dribbled past a couple of defenders before unleashing a fierce left-footed strike from 25 yards only to find Ospina equal to the challenge, comfortably beating the ball away.

This wasn't the last time the goalkeeper was called into action as later Cavani forced him into a save down low to his right from the edge of the area while he also did well to scupper arguably Uruguay's chance of the match when full-back Maxi Pereira scrambled through, only for the stopper to spread himself well to maintain his clean sheet.

In the end, Colombia held on for a deserved win and Pekerman will now take his troops north to Fortaleza where they will meet the hosts Brazil on Friday evening.