пятница, 14 июня 2013 г.

US Open First Round 3-Balls: Teater a cracking bet on opening day

Josh Teater should be odds-on says Dan Geraghty

Regular three-ball punter Dan Geraghty has studied the opening day groupings at Merion and believes these six selections will get your US Open off to an excellent start...

The three-ball containing three of the PGA Tour's biggest hitters is particularly interesting around a tight track where course management is of far greater importance than gripping and ripping it. Dustin Johnson's season promised much following his victory in the very first event (Hyundai Tournament of Champions) but injuries have held him back, however his 10th place finish at the St Jude last week suggests he may be about to hit form again in the nick of time. I'm not sure whether Nicolas Colsaerts (who has struggled recently) will be able to reign in his power packed game enough to be a force at Merion; the enigmatic Bubba Watson looks the danger.

The unfortunately named Ryan Yip will have been delighted to get the call into this week's US Open field. He was listed as an alternate following a decent performance in the qualifiers and his participation was confirmed on Monday. Yip will be particularly excited as he already has some Merion form under his belt, namely a quarter final appearance in 2005's US Amateur. The young American's first round partners look perfectly beatable; his price of 3.02/1 appeals.

My eyes nearly popped out of my head when I saw Paul Casey's outright price of 630.0629/1 on the exchange. I know a number of us have been saying the Englishman is on the way back for a long time now but I witnessed in person his performance when qualifying at Walton Heath in May (shot a final round 63); and his final round 66 at the Nordea Masters last time out provided more encouragement. At the prices I'll take Casey 3.55/2 to outscore Lucas Glover 3.02/1 and Bill Haas 2.111/10 on day one. I wouldn't put you off taking a little of that 630.0629/1 to try and trade either.

As Dan Thomas suggests, this short, tight set-up looks made for tiny Tim Clark. The South African has made a living from his short-to-mid range irons, topping the PGA Tour's proximity to the pin stat in both 2009 and 2010. He sits 22nd in this year's stat and looks overpriced to outscore compatriots Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen on the first day.

Boo Weekley is enjoying a much better season than playing partners Ian Poulter and Jason Dufner. The easy going American has a bit to prove in the very biggest tournaments but he's not disgraced himself in the past, registering a number of decent finishes, not least 2007's ninth at the PGA Championship. I can't agree with Weekley being priced up as the three-ball's outsider.

Finally, I think Josh Teater should be odds-on to win his three-ball on the first day. The 34 year old American is in the middle of the best season of his career on the PGA tour and came through two 36 hole qualfiers (for the Open and US Open) in the space of a month. His playing partners are 43 year old Japanese journeyman Yoshinobu Tsukada, who won his maiden title earlier this year and Eddie Pepperell who I followed around Walton Heath during qualifying. The young Englishman looks a class act but faces a huge task on his major debut.

Recommended Bets

Back Dustin Johnson @ 2.37n/a
Back Ryan Yip @ 3.02/1
Back Paul Casey @ 3.55/2
Back Tim Clark @ 3.211/5
Back Boo Weekley @ 3.02/1
Back Josh Teater @ 2.25n/a

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