US Open Betting: Never mind the stats, a fortysomething can win at Merion

Ernie Els remains capable of a third US Open title

The stats tell us golf is becoming a young man's game, with no player in their forties winning a US major this century. Paul Krishnamurty, however, believes that could change at Merion...

Generally speaking, there is plenty to be said for following trends when betting on golf but sometimes one has to apply common sense.

Nobody aged above 39 has won any of the 40 major championships on US soil in the 21st century, which theoretically means we can discount a host of big names for next week's US Open. Most notably Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood can be written off on that basis, despite the fact both rank among the best US Open performers never to win it. In my view, this simply proves that you can't rely wholly on numbers.

While it is an obvious fact that there are an unprecedented number of youngsters capable of winning at the highest level, it would be plain wrong to argue that golf is a young man's game. After all the last two winners of the Open Championship, Ernie Els and Darren Clarke, were both aged 42.

More recently, 43 year-old Angel Cabrera came within a whisker of a second Masters title. Of course, the achievements of all three pale by comparison to Tom Watson's near-miss at the 2009 Open at the age of 59.

That catalogue of stellar performances in majors suggest this century's age trends owe more to bad luck than logical theory, and are unlikely to persist. In fact, next week's US Open could be the perfect opportunity to end the trend. This major always rewards sound course management so Merion's short, penal layout should, in theory, offer experienced, older players a vital edge.

Whether Mickelson or Westwood win or not, age will not be a handicap. They are not the only fortysomethings worth considering by any means, though, nor necessarily the best value betting options.

Two other candidates particularly take the eye for Merion. First, Ernie Els is the ultimate tournament specialist, winning two US Open titles during the nineties and registering seven further top-15 finishes this century. Even as his game has appeared to be in slow decline, Ernie has contended in this major, trading in single figures during two of the last three US Open final rounds. More recently, a decent Masters plus fourth place at Wentworth shows the Big Easy is far from finished and cracking value at around 110.0109/1.

The other oldie on my radar is a player who actually improved after hitting 40. As one of the most prolific winners on the PGA Tour, Steve Stricker is long overdue a breakthrough in a major and the US Open seems as likely as any, given the emphasis on short game skills and resilience. He made the top-five twice during the 1990s and contended for a very long way in both 2006 and 2007. Having twice finished runner-up in five strokeplay starts this year, recent form points towards a back-to-lay trade at around 70.069/1.

Recommended Bets (Back to Lay)
Back Steve Stricker to win the US Open @ 70.069/1
Back Ernie Els to win the US Open @ 110.0109/1