ICC Champions Trophy Betting: New Zealand v Sri Lanka

New Zealand beat England but how will they fare against Sri Lanka

It is the battle of the underdogs in Cardiff as the pre-tournament outsiders face off against one another. Richard O'Hagan previews the game...

New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Sunday June 9, 10:30 BST
Live on Sky Sports 1

New Zealand

Not ten days ago New Zealand were the rank outsiders for this tournament. A 2-1 series win over England in the interim has shortened their odds slightly, but not so much that they can't adopt their preferred position of underdogs. That certainly plays to their strengths. We've seen it three times this year already, in the two series against England, plus the contest against South Africa back in January. You write Brendon McCullum's men off at your peril.

There are one or two hangovers from that England series which will concern them. Having backed Luke Ronchi to open the innings, they now need him to quickly find some form. Neither Grant Elliott nor Colin Munro looks convincing at number 5 and James Franklin, despite his good domestic record in New Zealand, still doesn't look like an international player at all. They can, of course, do nothing about Daniel Vettori's long term injury and it seems unlikely that he will feature in this game, leaving the spin duties in the hands of Nathan McCullum and Kane Williamson again.

Sri Lanka

Expectations of this Sri Lankan team are high in their home country, and hopes were greatly raised when they posted a total of over 300 in their opening warm-up game against India. That euphoria lasted around three hours, which was roughly the time it took Virat Kohli and Dinesh Karthik to see India safely home. Indeed, if you look at the recent past, it is hard to find anything positive to say about this team. Richly talented they may be, but their last visit to England in 2011 bordered on the embarrassing as, at the same time of year, they failed to show any talent against the moving ball. Then there is the fact that only one player, Thisara Perera, showed any form at all during the IPL, whilst two of their most senior players, Angelo Mathews and Kumar Sangakkara, dropped themselves from the teams they were captaining. 

All told, this could be a chastening tournament for the Sri Lankans. They will depend a lot upon the experience of Mahela Jayawardene, the versatility of their quickest bowler Nuwan Kulasekera and the innocuous yet strangely unhittable left arm spin of Rangana Herath. If none of those come off it will be hard for them to even come close to a win.

Venue and Conditions

One of the things we have already learned about Sophia Gardens is that it is a paradise for batsmen, where a score of over 280 is mandatory - and over 320 preferable - if you want to stand a hope of winning. With a hot sunny day forecast it could be a tough day for bowlers.

Match Odds

Sri Lanka are the surprising favourites for this game at 1.8910/11, which means that New Zealand are generously odds-against at 2.0811/10. Backing the side who have won two of their last three games on English soil is a bit of a no-brainer, really.

Top New Zealand Batsman

When you look at the Black Caps batting lineup the temptation is always to put your money in one of three places - Martin Guptill, who has been in imperious form, scoring over 250 runs for only once out so far; Ross Taylor, ever classy and their top scorer in the one game they lost to England; or McCullum, whose brutal hitting at number six is so vital to their plans. This means, though, that these three will be at short odds. The safer bet, though, is to back Williamson, the man who anchors their innings. His job is to try and bat from the fall of the first wicket to the last ball and if he does so, he will run away with this. Back him at odds of around 4.84/1.

Top Sri Lanka Batsman

The situation is pretty similar with the Sri Lankans. Jayawardene, Sangakkara and Tillekaratne Dilshan will all be short odds because they are name batsmen with historically good records. However, none of them has had a great time in England. The man to go for here is Dilshan's dynamic young opening partner, Kushal Perera. He has looked fearless in his seven international starts to date and at around 6.05/1 represents great value.

Recommended Bet

Back New Zealand at 2.0811/10 to win