Against All Odds: Union to strike but Newell's to prevail

Ignacio Scocco has 28 goals in all competitions this season

Newell's Old Boys are looking to extend their lead at the top of the Argentinian Torneo Final against the already relegated Union Santa Fe tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that we could be in for plenty of goals.

River Plate and Independiente did the business for us yesterday meaning it's now six winners from the last seven selections, and in the wider picture, a 7.26pt profit after commission for the last six weeks.

Newell's are still top of the pile but they are now level on points with River Plate and if Lanus win at Estudiantes earlier in the evening, come kick off, Gerardo Martino's side could be down in second place. Of course they will have a game in hand and as it's at home to the already relegated Union, it's highly likely they'll move back to first place, but the pressure will certainly be on.

La Lepra are generally solid on home soil and while they'll have to put the 2-1 defeat at All Boys behind them, it's hard to see anything other than a convincing victory back at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa. They have netted a total of 14 goals in their last four in front of their own fans - which is quite an achievement in this league. Their last five have all gone over 2.5 goals and in Ignacio Scocco they have the highest scorer in Argentina this season.

Union Santa Fe have performed much better in the Torneo Final than they did in the Torneo Inicial but because of relegation working on a three year average, they are already condemned to Primera B for next season. It's just a matter of playing out their remaining three fixtures now, although they did beat Colon last time out - their first win since March.

As far as the goals go, Facundo Sava's side have seen three of their last half dozen go over 3.5 goals, and while the other three all went under 2.5, two of the high scoring ones came away from home. In fact, on the road, Union have failed to score just twice in their last eight encounters - five of which produced three goals or more.

The last three scorelines between this pair read; 2-2, 3-1, 2-1 and with all the other statistics on offer, I have to think that this match will be high scoring. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.9720/21 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Newell's v Union Santa Fe @ 1.9720/21 

This match is available on Betfair Live Video at 23:10 GMT

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 160 pts
Returned: 151.79 pts
P/L – 8.21 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)