2nd ODI Betting: England v New Zealand

Finn is struggling to be fit

Ed Hawkins says England are dreadful value at Southampton on Sunday with injury doubts exposing their lack of squad depth...

England v New Zealand
Start time: 10.45BST
TV: live on Sky Sports

England
England's resurgence as a one-day force has been impressive but they remain brittle if they lose key men. The loss of Stuart Broad and Steven Finn to injury - a bruised knee and sore shins respectively - exposed a lack of depth in the squad as replacements Chris Woakes and Jade Dernbach proved expensive. Still, they did not bat well, either. Posting 227 against a New Zealand attack which itself was depleted will have hit hopes of a succes in the Champions Trophy.

New Zealand
A typically gutsy, efficient display by the Kiwis at Lord's has given then edge in the three-match series. And they did it without wise man Daniel Vettori. Tim Southee and Nathan McCullum were superb with the ball, taking three and two wickets respectively at fewer than four an over. But it was Martin Guptill who stole the show. His 103 from 123 balls was a masterclass, particularly as New Zealand had found themselves in the depths of trouble at two wickets down for one run. Ross Taylor, with 54 from 77 balls, also impressed.

First-innings runs
The average score in 13 ODIs at the Rose Bowl (not including the hapless USA against Australia in 2004) is 245. In three of the last five you would have been comfortable winners going long of 260, however. In the eight day matches, there is no toss bias to speak of. England have played only twice there without the lights being on and have won both.

Match odds
New Zealand's five-wicket victory has not impressed the market. England remain short at 1.564/7 with the Kiwis as big as 2.73n/a. The rationale must be that England will return their fast-bowling big guns but we cannot be confident. Indeed, backing the hosts at such odds without knowing the line-up is lunacy. The selectors are concerned enough to have called up Boyd Rankin, the former Ireland seamer, and Alastair Cook, the captain, hinted strongly that Broad and Finn would be absent again. That makes New Zealand a stonking wager. Even if those two are fit, they have the nous to trade as favourites but we would expect them to get the win if England's resources are once again stretched. Man for man they are as good as England in that context. Perhaps better as they certainly have more inspiration in the batting. In Brendon McCullum and Taylor they have hitters which England lack.

Top England runscorer
Ian Bell and Eoin Morgan are the men to follow at this venue. Bell, who has top scored (albeit sharing honours last time out) on his previous two visits, has 392 runs in six innings at an average of 78. Morgan has 301 in five at more than 100. Both men have scored two centuries. Bell will probably go off at 4.507/2 and Morgan 6.005/1.

Top New Zealand runscorer
Guptill should go off favourite following his super show at Lord's and it is a market with narrow options after Luke Ronchi and Kane Williamson both recorded ducks at Nos 1 and 3. Brendon McCullum will be well backed but at No 6 he is no value.

Recommended bets
New Zealand at 2.73n/a
I Bell top England bat at 4.507/2