Will Greenwood: More Twickenham despair for England

JP Pietersen can help South Africa beat England

Will Greenwood expects another desperately close battle against the physical Springboks but the Betfair ambassador is reluctantly putting his money on the visitors...

I've watched the defeat against Australia again and England supporters shouldn't panic. There's no need to be too morose or spread a sense of impending gloom. Fans get despondent but the team isn't a million a miles away from where we want them to be - we just want them to get there a bit quicker!

At times, though, I thought we were caught between two stools as the team looked for an identity. Should we play slow or fast? Take quick taps or go for the corners? Should restarts go short or long?

Lots has been said about the decisions by Chris Robshaw to go for the corners and I'm a great believer in taking the points. I know Quins have had a lot of success doing it a bit differently the last couple of seasons but this is international rugby and you have to take what's on offer.

What we were just lacking was a bit of punch to get the crowd out of the seats and behind the team. I watched France-Argentina later that evening and was off my sofa in the first minute - it was like a heavyweight boxing match as they tried to tear each other's heads off.

Giving Joe Launchbury his first start against South Africa should help - he has certainly made an impact coming on as a replacement and will add some grunt up front - as the two Ps (Palmer and Parling) were a little bit 'samey'.

Saturday is going to be close. The way South Africa play they don't put teams away, they batter you physically not on the scoreboard. It's wonderful to watch if like me you enjoy seeing big men smashing six bells out of each other.

Eben Eztebeth not being passed fit to play is a big blow however - as well as being their new enforcer he has won 100% of his line-outs the last two weeks and if South Africa dominate the touchlines then Eztebeth will be missed.

At 2.1211/10 I have to say that you can't bet against the Springboks - I know England rarely lose two on the spin at home but I just think we looked indecisive at crucial times last week and the backline lacks the pace to carve open this South African defence. Jean de Villiers and Juan de Jongh are solid as a rock in their midfield and JP Pietersen is such an exciting runner with ball in hand.

It will be mighty close, though, and the draw has to be considered, particularly in light of the 14-14 stalemate over there in the Third Test this summer.

Back the draw at 25.024/1 with a view to cashing out midway through the second-half if it's as close as I expect it to be.

Recommended Bets
Back South Africa @ 2.1411/10
Back to lay the draw @ 25.024/1

There are several other mouth-watering clashes on a fantastic day of test rugby.

Wales are right up against it at the Millennium Stadium. With a new coach and new ideas, New Zealand have just got better and better since winning the World Cup this time last year - the only time Dan Carter has broken sweat on this tour is in training.

They have picked their strongest team and the prices available reflect this. However, I think there's a bit of value in backing Wales with an 18.5 point start, again with a view to cashing out. With Gatland back in charge and Jonathan Davies back in the centres they should be able to keep it close for an hour at least.

Elsewhere, I fancy an upset in Dublin where Argentina are a great price at 2.962/1 to beat Ireland. The Pumas are a team on the up and playing away from home doesn't bother them in the slightest - they are rugby nomads.

France won't have any problems dispensing of Samoa, whose performance level will surely drop off after beating Wales, while Scotland simply have to beat Tonga. The French look fabulous at the moment and I'd also advice a decent punt now on them in the 2013 Six Nations outright Winner market.

Lastly, there's also some value to be had in Rome where Italy are much improved under new coach Jacques Brunel. Back them to lead the Wallabies at half-time though I expect Australia to prevail in the end.

Other Bets
Back to lay Wales +18.5 @ 1.910/11
Back Argentina to beat Ireland @ 2.962/1
Back Italy HT/Australia FT @ 8.07/1
Back France to win the 2013 Six Nations @ 3.412/5