Will Greenwood: Beating Fiji can kick-start England's ace autumn

Attacking options - England's Alex Goode

England kick off their Autumn Internationals against Fiji at Twickenham on Saturday. The Red Rose are big favourites to win but, as Will Greenwood explains, the next four weeks will give us a strong indication of how much they have developed under Stuart Lancaster...

I spent time with the England squad last week. Bradley Wiggins dropped by too but whether the players knew who the old guy who used to play a bit was I'm not sure. I was very impressed by the coaching, there was nothing revolutionary about what Graham Rowntree, Mike Catt and Andy Farrell were doing, but the impression I got was of a common purpose and strong rapport between staff and players. I came away feeling optimistic about their chances of recording victories this autumn.

The next four weeks are a chance for this new England team to set down a marker. Of course, Stuart Lancaster's England is not such a new proposition anymore and there's only so much building for the future you can do. Now potential must be transformed in to results. Saturday's match against Fiji is a strange one, as England's unbackable odds of 1.031/33 attest, but after that they play the world's best three teams. 

It will be extremely tough and I know some people who reckon England might emerge with only one victory. We've seen some torrid Novembers but I'm confident England have the foundations on which to build a successful end to the year. New Zealand are the best in the world, we saw in the summer that Heyneke Meye is quickly putting his stamp on a formidable South Africa squad and Australia stunned everybody recently by going to Argentina and beating up the Pumas.  

England have no margin for error or time for adjustment. But I'm confident that, in front of over 80,000 at Twickenham, building towards 2015, they will rise to the challenge. Under Lancaster, they've enjoyed three excellent away wins and drew the last Test in South Africa. I'm backing them to win two autumn internationals at 2.0811/10 and I'm also going to stick my neck out and put small stakes on three victories at 2.486/4. 

On Saturday, I've been toying with backing Fiji/England at 9.08/1 in the half-time/full-time market. It's a conceivable route to value and one that's paid dividends for this column in the past. However, I can't see it happening.

Lancaster has interesting selection conundrums and I'm sorry that Chris Ashton, Ben Foden and Dylan Hartley are absent. Without that trio there aren't many players in the England team who are certain to be in the Lions squad next summer. But that just means that others, like Ugo Monye and Charlie Sharples, have the chance to stake their claims. Alex Goode would be my choice at full-back because he bolsters England's attacking options and prevents Toby Flood from becoming isolated. In fact, I'll back the Saracens man to score.

My guess is that England will prevail by between 15 and 20 points. The real Tests begin next week against Australia so Lancaster might make changes in the second-half. I can see England easing off and there might even be a bit of rustiness about their play. Betting options are limited but I'm going to back Fiji +19.5 points.

Recommended Bets
Back Fiji +19.5 pts
Back 11-20 minutes for first try @ 1.758/11
Back Alex Goode to score a try