Torneo Inicial Tip Sheet: Home teams to prosper

Rodrigo Mora will be a key player for River this weekend

Ed Malyon previews this weekend's action in the Argentinian top flight, and our man fully expects a plethora of home wins over the next few days...

Friday

Belgrano v Argentinos Juniors - 20:00

This game seems to represent some of the best value in Argentina this weekend. As repeated nearly every week, Belgrano are surprise contenders for a first ever national title and another win last weekend means that they are just two points off the top now.

They're unbeaten at home, but then again so are three other teams, and only Vlez (sitting a point ahead of Belgrano in second) have picked up more points on the road. The summary is that the Pirates - as the hosts are known - are a very good side, so they're not the sort of team you want to come up against when you have no manager, are lacking any sort of direction, and are winless in six.

At this point we bring in Argentinos Juniors who are all of the above and look destined for defeat. 1.9620/21 is a marvellous price for Belgrano to win. Again.

Newell's Old Boys v Quilmes - 22:10

Another Friday night game seems like it might just be a simple home win. Newell's are top of the table and playing some beautiful football under former Paraguay manager Gerardo Martino.

They are the only unbeaten side in the whole division with five wins and a draw from their six games in Rosario and rather than repeating the love letters from previous weeks, you will just have to trust this column that Newell's are the real deal, a genuinely very good side.

Quilmes are an unremarkable mid-table side that have drawn more games than anyone else in the league but recently lost key playmaker Miguel Caneo to a serious injury. They have one of the better goalscorers in the division in the shape of Martn Cauteruccio but they shouldn't trouble this Newell's side.

The win price of 1.695/7 isn't supremely tempting, and you may be better of dutching together the 1-0 and 2-0 correct score bets at 6.411/2 and 8.07/1 respectively. The justification for this is that Newell's have conceded just six goals all season, keeping clean sheets in nine of 13 league fixtures but have only scored more than two themselves on a single occasion.

Vlez Sarsfield v Godoy Cruz - 00:15

Godoy Cruz were very much in the title mix until they suddenly lost the ability to win four games ago. Their away record has been a key reason for their disintegration with four defeats in their six away games, and up against second-placed Vlez they will struggle once more.

The Liniers side boast three consecutive wins and their front pair of the bulky Lucas Pratto and talented Facundo Ferreyra have finally started to click. They are joint-top scorers in the division and given the Mendocinos awful away record you'd want to back the hosts at 1.654/6 if you're betting on this, but it's a tad short.

Saturday

San Lorenzo v All Boys - 19:10

Make no mistake, San Lorenzo are in very real relegation trouble. They may be one of Argentina's 'big five' but that doesn't save you from chronic mismanagement and repeated underperformances on the pitch.

Visiting All Boys are a far smaller club but they are one that has continually overachieved in the last few seasons by being hard to beat and they're on good - if somewhat inconsistent - form at the moment with three wins from five.

San Lore are winless in seven and rubbish, but since Juan Antonio Pizzi took over as manager they have at least started scoring. All Boys have found the net in every away game this season and therefore the Both Teams To Score seems to offer some value at 2.26/5.

River Plate v Unin Santa Fe - 21:15

The headline for this game is that River will be without David Trezeguet due to injury, but this could prove to be a blessing in disguise for the Millionarios who can now utilise a more mobile and dynamic frontline. Rodrigo Mora will be the key figure in the team, the Uruguayan playing fantastically well whenever he gets a chance to do so with freedom but alongside Trezeguet he tends to end up doing the legwork for both of the forwards.

This is bad news for Unin, the worst team in this division by a distance. They have not won a game yet, and this won't change on Saturday night (if it does then Buenos Aires will need plenty of riot police on duty).

Back River at 1.625/8.

Estudiantes La Plata v Atletico Rafaela - 23:20

This is a game that pretty much has little impact on anything, except perhaps in the long-term for Rafaela as they look to keep their average points total up in Argentina's complex relegation table.

Therefore it seems more like the sort of game that the hosts would tend to win, as well as Estudiantes being a stronger side than la Crema in the first place. Estu have shown flashes of what they could be this season under new boss Diego Cagna, and Romn Martinez has been as good as expected in replacing Juan Sebastin Vern at the heart of the team, but their deficiencies elsewhere meant that no serious tilt at the championship was ever really on the cards.

Rafaela are very good at home, in Santa Fe province, but pretty rubbish away from home. Fortunately for them, their home form is sufficient to keep them in an acceptable position above the relegation battle while flailing, sinking giants like Independiente and San Lorenzo turn in insipid performances on a weekly basis.

Estudiantes seem to be priced about right at 1.855/6 and they will certainly be expecting a win.

Sunday

Lans v Tigre - 17:30

Tigre are living two lives at the moment as they progressed to the Copa Sudamericana semifinals in midweek but continue to really struggle domestically.

Reaching a continental semi is a great achievement, but having still failed to pick up a win in the Primera this season they will be starting to concern themselves with the implications that this will have on their average points score in future relegation tables.

Having scored only ten goals in 12 league fixtures this campaign, it is inexplicable that they have put four past their opposition on three separate occasions in the Sudamericana.

Lans are a very good side indeed and sit just behind the three leaders in the table. While unlikely they will make up the four points on leaders Newell's in the remaining four fixtures, they will still want to finish strongly and given Tigre's awful league form and tiredness from a midweek fixture, this should be a Lans win all day long.

Coln de Santa Fe v Boca Juniors - 21:15

Boca may be one of the biggest clubs in the country but they simply aren't a side that you can back at the moment.

Their form is up and down, the manager is probably leaving and everyone misses Riquelme - so what are we supposed to expect? Occasionally the class of their individuals shines through and the likes of Juan Sanchez Mio, Leandro Paredes and Pol Fernandez can guide this transitioning team to victory, on the other occasions the experienced heads look like pedestrian cloggers and they slump to embarrassing defeats.

Their hosts Coln had a brilliant start to the season and looked like the dark horses that some had tipped, but this unravelled quicker than a pair of shoddily-darned Paraguayan socks and they are now marooned in the purgatory of midtable. Their real concern is their home form, with just the one victory in front of their own fans this season, but this game is not about betting on the result.

These are the two sides whose games have averaged the most goals in the Primera A this season, so the overs seem the most natural choice in a game where the result is nigh-on impossible to pick.

Racing Club v Arsenal de Sarand - 23:30

Notionally a derby, this game pits two local sides against each other in the game that rounds off the weekend. Calling it a clsico however, is a tad fanciful given that the equivalent fixture in England would be Manchester United v Bury should The Shakers ever get to the top flight.

Our Bury equivalent is tiny little Arsenal, a recently-founded club (in Argentine terms) that has close links to AFA President Julio Grondona. His reign has coincided with their continual rise up to the point that they were crowned Clausura champions in June, to the disgust of virtually every neutral in the country.

Racing are their grander neighbours, a club that has won continental and world club titles and looked to be in for a shout of a national one this season until losing to championship rivals Vlez. Arsenal are never easy to beat, and boast a very talented defender in Lisandro Lopez - a player destined for greater things - but there is no doubt that their Supercopa win in distant Catamarca on Wednesday night will make Racing the fresher side, especially as it went to penalties.

It's almost a clean sweep of home wins tipped this weekend but Racing are the sensible bet here at 1.9520/21 and Luciano Vietto is their dangerman.