вторник, 20 ноября 2012 г.

Timeform Radio Tips: Tuesday November 20

Today's bets are at Fakenham and Folkestone.

Timeform's Dan Barber suggests a number of bets for Tuesday's racing...

"Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you've got till it's gone?" So sung Janet Jackson in her 1997 hit, and such a question is soon to be facing National Hunt fans as the closure of jumps racing at Folkestone is only two meetings away after today (and even that is subject to any December abandonments).

It's rarely a track that produces high-quality racing, under both codes in truth, and the all-hunter chase card in the spring probably isn't everyone's cup of tea, either (sorry, our very own Mr J. Grayson), but at least it's been a course that's predictable, with testing ground normally the order of the day over hurdles and prominent-tactics often favoured in chases, to name but two worthwhile trends. And, what's more, it has provided a stepping stone in the last few years to such as subsequent Scottish National winner Iris de Balme in 2008 and also Hunt Ball, whose first of seven wins during the latest campaign came in Kent.

It's the ground-based observation of the track that forms part of the reasoning behind today's first recommendation. Sir Fredlot (13:10) found only one too good on his recent hurdling debut at Sandown under desperate conditions, but, rather than taking that as a positive, there's clearly a concern that having his guts ripped out on testing ground for a second time in under two weeks is going to hinder the horse. And, with the likes of Spider Zagato, Jaja de Jau and While You Wait three interesting sorts for a race of this nature, a win lay of the favourite at odds-on could be the way to go (even small-stakes opposition in the place market wouldn't be the worst idea, just in case he's been totally bottomed by Sandown).

A favourite who makes much more appeal runs later on the card at 15:10. Sulpius created a good impression when getting his act together for the first time over fences at Fontwell earlier in the month, beating subsequent-winner Bonoman all ends up, and his sound-jumping should again stand him in good stead. He should get away with stepping back up in trip with the chase course riding firmer than the hurdles track, and in form terms he should be closer to 2.111/10 than 2.915/8.

The final suggestions come in Fakenham's opener at 13:00. Potential non-stayer Me Fein heads the market ahead of the ungenuine Tower, both of whom met in a paltry contest here recently, and better value lies with unexposed handicap debutant Petie McSweetie and potential angle horse Mangonel. The latter won this race last year from the same mark and is refitted with her favoured visor for the first time since joining Chris Gordon, while it would be no surprise to see her revert to the pace-forcing tactics that have tended to serve her best now dropped back in class.

Recommended Bets
Back Petie McSweetie at 4.57/2 and Mangonel at 6.05/1 in the 13:00 at Fakenham
Lay Sir Fredlot at up to 2.111/10 in the 13:10 at Folkestone
Back Sulpius at 2.26/5 in the 15:10 at Folkestone

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