Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Mentalist a cut above

Rory thinks Mentalist can provide Venetia with a winner at Musselburgh

Rory Delargy brings you three bets from Musselburgh on Thursday...

The best bet on today's card at Musselburgh's new "hybrid" jumps track (the winning-post bend has had a been relaid in fibresand rather than turf to minimise damage and give greater purchase) is the Venetia Williams-trained Mentalist in the beginners chase at 14:30. This race is, under the new race-planning regime, restricted to horses with an official rating of 110 or less, and the son of Westerner gets in on the upper limit. He is in receipt of an age allowance on top of that which sees him getting 9 lb from the similarly-rated Wild Geese, and that fact alone makes him of some interest. Of more relevance, though, is the excellent impression he made when runner-up in a similar race at Bangor 10 days ago, when jumping fluently on his way to an excellent second to Balbriggan, an ex-Henrietta Knight horse who has almost certainly showed much-improved form for the switch to the care of Mick Channon.

That run suggests that Mentalist will make into a better chaser than he was over hurdles, and if that is the case, then he will prove very hard to beat here. The danger may arrive in the shape of Civil Unrest, who was an excellent second over track and trip in a handicap hurdle in February. He lost his form thereafter, but this front runner has had a breathing operation in the summer, and is expected to make a bold bid on his chase debut. He'll need to be pretty useful to conceded weight to the selection, though, and makes most interest for forecast purposes.

Williams has claims in the following contest, too, where Monetary Fund aims to atone for defeat in a valuable event at Newton Abbot in September, but that one is passed over in favour of Purcell's Bridge. The Rose Dobbin stable has taken time to bear the fruit expected of a large investment, but is showing much more positive signs that things are clicking into gear now, and Purcell's Bridge went some way to justifying his own lofty price-tag when bolting up at Wetherby 6 days ago. That came under 10-lb claimer Shaun Dobbin, a nephew of Rose's husband Tony, and he incurs no penalty for that win in a conditional riders' contest. There is always a worry when such horses are turned out quickly (he's been raised a whopping 17 lb for future entries), and I wouldn't be certain that he could run to quite the same level straight away, but odds of 2/1 and bigger underestimate his superiority, and his bumper form suggests that the performance was no fluke.  

In the final contest at the East Lothian venue, I'm sweet on the chances of Stormy Morning in what looks a weak race. Phillip Kirby's son of Nayef was third over C&D in February (just behind Civil Unrest), and has since shown his liking for this track by winning over 13f on the Flat. He's been in good form in that sphere of late, finishing in the money here on 3 further occasions, and he looks on a handy mark now returning to timber. Market rivals Benmadigan (best with professional handling and on a sound surface), Endeavour (ungenuine) and Laybach (maiden who was beaten miles into second last time), are eminently opposable, and the main danger may again come from the Dobbin yard, with Mountskip ridden by Shaun for auntie Rose, and potentially thrown in on his form from a couple of seasons ago. 

Recommended Bets:

Back Mentalist in the 14:30 Musselburgh  @ 2.3211/8 (NAP) 
Back Purcell's Bridge in the 15:00 Musselburgh @ 3.052/1 (NB) 
Back Stormy Morning in the 16:00 Musselburgh @ 4.47/2

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