The X Factor 2012: Week 5 Winners and Losers

Jahmee Douglas looks good

Maloney getting booed, Douglas getting better, Clark becoming boring, and Henderson still singing beautifully. It's all in Eliot Pollak's latest winners and losers...

Winners

The big winner over the weekend was Jahmene Douglas. Likeable and nervous - many in the X Factor blogosphere are now comparing his rise to that of Leona Lewis a few seasons back. It also helps that he can navigate a Beyonce song without coming completely unstuck. He's peaking at a good time, and has stirred interest in a way Ella Henderson can't, thanks to his hauntingly bad childhood. 1.528/15 in the 'Without Ella' market is about right, but the fact that he is now into as narrow as 2.77/4 in the overall Winner market is hugely significant.

Nevertheless, Ella is still the one to beat, and as she remains favourite at 2.486/4 with another week been and gone, that is good enough for us to keep her in the Winners column. The risk of any runaway leader is that the public become sick and tired of them and the truth is, Ella is something of a one-trick pony. That the one trick is singing absolutely beautifully probably still works in her favour.

The really interesting battle remains the one between the boybands. There is barely a pubic hair separating them, although Union J looked fractionally stronger than District 3 at the weekend. One Direction have paved the way for this new breed of singing haircuts so don't be surprised to find one of them barging past James Arthur on their way into the Top 3. Union J are 2.1411/10 to finish there, District 3 as large as 9.417/2. In the head-to-head Groups market, the prices are 1.42/5 and 2.47/5 respectively.

Losers

James is proving to be Mr Consistent - always in agony, never once smiling, pretty much pitch perfect - but to remain credible he presumably needs to NOT win the X Factor. Third or fourth would be ideal for him, and as mentioned above, he is in danger of being overtaken by a bunch of pre-pubescent children. Lay him for the top three at 1.8910/11, and also to finish as Top Boy at 1.824/5. Both prices are far too short.

Rylan Clark featured in the sing-off, and his shtick is becoming tired. He'd be lucky to last another week, and we like the 3.052/1 on him to go next.

Christopher Maloney is now getting booed. Which on the face of it, is not a good thing. Yet rumours still insist he is storming the public vote, and we would be very wary of backing against him, despite the public bullying.