The Punter's In-Play Blog - Rory's in a spot of bother

Rory McIlroy, looking lost in Hong Kong

World number one and defending champ, Rory McIlroy looks in trouble in Hong Kong but that's good news for Steve, as one of his picks, Miguel Angel Jimenez, ties for second after round one. And there's news of round one in South Africa but unfortunately for our man, it's all bad...

12:40 - November 15, 2012

I really shouldn't have got out of bed this morning; things were going so much better before I did. When I looked in on the UBS Hong Kong Open in the early hours I was delighted to see one of my five pre-event selections, Miguel Angel Jimenez, had raced to seven under par with just two holes to play. When I woke up again, he'd bogeyed his last two holes!

The mild disappointment I felt over Mig's scruffy finish soon vanished when I looked in on the scores at the South Africa Open though. My strongest fancy of the week, Branden Grace, was three under par though just eight holes and he'd already been matched at 5.04/1. I have to confess, I was confident. But soon after I'd sorted breakfast and packed the kids off to school it all went pear-shaped...

Watching him play on Sky, I had to wonder how on earth he'd managed to get to three under. He played some of the worst golf I'd ever seen him play and any confidence I had has well and truly evaporated. He played some awful stuff and ended his round on level par.

Day one still has a still a very long way to go with afternoon starters Henrik Stenson and George Coetzee currently making a move but they'll have to get a shift on to reach Merrick Bremner, who shot an eight under par 64 this morning.  And credit where it's due, Bremner was advised as a first round wager at a very big price by the in-form Ben Coley on the Bettingzone site. Ben's had a cracking year, his write-ups are always worth a read and if you're not already reading them you should be.

I was going to wait until tomorrow before getting involved but I couldn't resist a very small play on Richard Sterne (in the house on -3) at 28.027/1.

In Hong Kong, the big story on day one was the very poor performance of the shortest-priced jolly of the week, defending champion and world number one, Rory McIlroy, who was backed right down to 3.412/5 before the off. An opening three over par 73 sees him languishing down in a tie for 93rd, fully nine shots behind first round leader Javier Colomo and he has a mountain to climb now.  

Every winner this century has shot an opening round in the 60's and five back is the furthest any champ has been after day one. We all know how good Rory is but he'll need to be at his very best for the next three days and even then, he might still have too much ground to make up. McIlroy currently trades at 16.5n/a and he's not for me.

Starting at the 11th hole and finishing at the 10th, Jimenez may have finished poorly but he wasn't the only one. I'd written in the preview about how tricky the 18th can be and Manny Manassero, Paul Lawrie and Y E Yang all took the shine off very good rounds with dropped shots there. 

That hasn't stopped Manassero, on -3 and Yang, on -4, vying for favouritism ahead of my man Mig and they both look very dangerous. I'm going to wait until the morning now though, if either of them kick-on in round two while I'm fast asleep so be it.

I won't be the only one hoping they don't though, Paul Krishnamurty and his Find Me A 100 Winner's followers will also be eager to see that none of the morning starters pull away because Michael Campbell, who shot -3, will be out in the afternoon alongside my man Jimenez.  Another of my picks, Simon Dyson, isn't completely out of it either, he's on -2 and he's another one who tees off in the afternoon.

McIlroy may have started poorly but it's not all doom and gloom for favourite backers and they'll be far happier with developments elsewhere. Over in Japan, Luke Donald has started the Dunlop Phoenixvery well and he's now tied for the lead and trading at just a shade of odds-against. And over in Australia, the event already appears to revolve around the two that vied for jolly status before the off - Adam Scott and Ian Poulter. Mathew Guyatt leads after round one, following an opening 65, but both Scot and Poulter are two back and tied for second and it would take a brave man to lay the pair, even at this early stage.

UBS Hong Kong Open Pre-Event Selections:
Simon Dyson @ 40.039/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ an average of 55.054/1
Thongchai Jaidee @ 55.054/1
Pablo Larrazabal @ 80.079/1
Kristoffer Broberg @ 100.099/1

South Africa Open Pre-Event Selections:
Branden Grace @ 12.011/1
Brandon Stone @ 280.0279/1

In-Play Bet
Richard Sterne @ 28.027/1