Torres is the focus - but Chelsea's threat will come from deeper
Michael Cox previews the tactical battle between Roberto Di Matteo and Brendan Rodgers.
Chelsea v Liverpool, Sunday 4:00pm.
Match Odds: Chelsea 2.01/1, Liverpool 4.1n/a, The Draw 3.814/5.
Considering the way both Roberto Di Matteo and Brendan Rodgers have attempted to create an attack-minded, attractive side for 2011/12, this game should be be open and exciting, with lots of goals. Neither have been at all reactive this season, and neither coach is likely to make surprise selection decisions.
As the home side, Chelsea are naturally strong favourites, but I'm surprised to see them available at evens. That's too high, maybe because Chelsea have struggled in this fixture over the past couple of seasons. "They seem always to play exceptionally well against us and get results," admits Di Matteo. "They always play us in a moment when we are not at our best." I'm sceptical about the importance of past meetings, however, especially considering how different the sides are since last year. Besides, Chelsea triumphed in the FA Cup final in May.
The Blues' form at Stamford Bridge this season has been excellent, and although they lost their 100% home record in their previous home match in the 3-2 defeat to Manchester United, the manner of the defeat was highly unfortunate. I'd expect them to be more like 1.84/5 for this clash, and therefore I'll certainly back them at 2.01/1.
That said, I prefer Liverpool when they're playing away from home. At Anfield they struggle with packed defences and don't involve Luis Suarez quickly enough, but in their last away match against Everton, they broke excellently at speed, and I expect them to do the same here. Chelsea don't protect their full-backs effectively this season - particularly down their left, where Eden Hazard concentrates on attacking the box, and if Raheem Sterling is given the ball on the run, he can terrorise Ashley Cole.
I worry about Liverpool defensively. Daniel Agger and Martin Skrtel should be able to keep Fernando Torres quiet, but the problem is what happens in front of them. Joe Allen has made a positive start to his Liverpool career, but isn't a natural ball-winner. With Oscar floating around in that zone and Juan Mata drifting inside from the right, Allen might be overloaded, and will need assistance from another midfielder, probably Steven Gerrard. I expect Mata to drift inside from the right and shoot - and I'll probably back him as first goalscorer at 9.617/2.
However, I'll wait to see who Liverpool's full-backs are. Glen Johnson is rated as doubtful for the game, so it's difficult to predict who Rodgers will use at the back. Before Johnson's injury, he was playing on the left with Andre Wisdom at right-back and Jose Enrique on the bench. From the point of view of my Mata bet, I'd prefer Enrique to start - he's been poor throughout 2012 after initially settling well at Liverpool.
Elsewhere, Ramires will play a key role by powerfully connecting the Chelsea side, and Liverpool will need an energetic player capable of tracking his runs, especially if Gerrard plays a deeper role. Nuri Sahin hasn't yet convinced in Rodgers' triangle, and this match would suit Jonjo Shelvey more than him - but Rodgers looks set to change his entire starting XI from the Europa League defeat to Anzhi, so it'll probably be the Turk starting alongside Gerrard and Allen.
Liverpool's best hope of a goal is obviously Suarez - he's scored seven in the league so far this season, more than the rest of the side combined. The market has reacted to his excellent run of form, however, so I'll steer clear of backing him to score - despite the fact John Terry and David Luiz could be troubled by his clever runs and pace.
In terms of discipline, the two sides have identical records this season - 14 bookings and two reds, and they've also both committed exactly 118 fouls, so steer clear of the bookings match bet.
Recommended bets:
Back Chelsea at 2.01/1
Back Juan Mata to score first at 9.617/2
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