Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Smith to waltz his way to top score

Louis Smith is fancied to top score this week

With Wembley just one week away, this week's Strictly Come Dancing promises to be a tense show says Alan Dudman. Step forward the calm and collected Louis Smith then, who should waltz his way to a high score...

We're down to 10 dancers in the series, and with Wembley just one week away, it's crunch time in Strictly. The competition has increased in terms of the quality recently, which means one bad boogie could equal elimination at this stage.

Big Dicky A (Richard Arnold) survived last week's dance off with actor Colin Salmon, and he was lucky. His first effort was pathetic as he lost the steps, fortunately he recovered and took advantage of a fairly bland routine from Salmon's dance partner Kristina. Richard is the hot favourite in the bottom two market this week at 1.855/6, but is not heading the odds for lowest scorer.

That accolade goes to Fern Britton, who I thought might have been in trouble last week. Her paso seven days ago was not of 'last 10' standard, luckily for her it was just about 'last eleven' class. Britton is 2.526/4 for the lowest scorer. I am not sure she can edge past 30 points, and even though her salsa for the weekend might be saucy, it won't get any eights or nines.

I mentioned Fern's formative TV years last week, and her effort's with Ready Steady Cook. I always wanted to give Ainsley an 'All Day Breakfast' tin to see what he could do with it. I would think not much, which is how I feel about Britton's Latin for Saturday.

Denise once again shone with a spectacular top score 35 point last Saturday, and she has shortened (finally) in the winner market to 3.953/1. However, this weekend will be quite tough as her partner James Jordan danced through an ankle injury on the live show, and following an MRI scan this week, he's had to sit out the training. The thoroughly likeable Ian Waite has taken over the practice, but any disruption can be detrimental to the chemistry a couple can create. Jordan revealed on BBC's 'It Takes Two' on Wednesday that he wants to go and dance, but it might be worth sitting this one out for now, and we might have to watch this space regarding his participation.

For the record Van Outen has got the paso, but Jordan has made the dance simpler due to his inability to train. She is 2.6213/8 for highest scorer, and a simple paso is never a good thing. It might be the one week to take her on in terms of a lay, with Louis and Dani as runners.

If the Essex lady drifts in the week, it can only mean one thing. It's Louis Smith time. Unfortunately it's also odds-on time for the live show, as the gymnast is available to back at 1.684/6 for highest scorer. Old 'snake hips' should have got more than the 29 points last week, his samba was sizzling (as the ladies told me). But Smith is back in ballroom on Saturday with the killer waltz.

He seems better in the ballroom and the waltz is such an emotive and calming dance which always seems to register high with the judges. I wish he was around evens in price, but he still looks the one to beat in this routine. His music will be the wonderful 'Moon River' by Andy Williams, one of my grandmother's favourites.

Dani Harmer is going great guns, she and the twerp Vincent achieved the highest jive marks of the series with a stunning 33, and the actress has got all the lines and moves covered. The pocket duo are tango-ing for the weekend, and Vincent is the tango king - she is a lively runner at 8.07/1 for highest scorer.

Meanwhile my second crush (behind Susannah Hoffs) is hot off the heels from a saucy salsa. Kimberley really went for the dance and gained her highest score recently, however she made one mistake but Pash covered up the error immediately - this is a good team. They will tackle the Viennese waltz for which they trade at 4.03/1 in the highest score market. Walsh has got lots of steps and might even be trying a rather nifty 'Eros' step.

The bottom two and fifth elimination markets are fairly tricky for Saturday, Richard Arnold is an obvious contender to find himself in the danger zone again, but his saving grace might be his Charleston. The dance is generally well received and should suit his fun and cheeky nature (apparently). But he has wobbled before, and has also found himself in the bottom two before.

Michael Vaughan has been a revelation back in ballroom with two brilliant scoring weeks. However, the Betfair Ambassador has to return to the Latin and needs to prove he can do it in the quicker routines. Vaughan has the salsa which needs load of hip, and I generally prefer to back the women in that one. With the music selected as the Jackson Five's 'I want you back', this has got to be very fast, and he is available at 3.259/4 for lowest scorer.

Elsewhere Nicky Byrne doesn't really seem to be improving, whilst Lisa Riley needs to get back on track following a 27 point tango after the judges were suitably unimpressed with her recent efforts. The Irish crooner has only had one good dance this series - and that was Hollywood week.

Week 5 recommendations:

Back Louis Smith highest scorer @ 1.654/6
Back Dani Harmer highest scorer @ 8.07/1
Back Richard Arnold in bottom two @ 1.855/6
Lay Denise Van Outen Highest Scorer @ 2.6413/8