Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Can Harmer Beat The Mighty Van Outen?

Pocket rocket Dani Harmer - a mover in the winner market

Following Denise Van Outen's brilliant Charleston last weekend, our Strictly Come Dancing expert Alan Dudman expects to see the blonde bombshell as the new series favourite this Sunday - with Dani Harmer hot on her heels as the new contender.

Thank god Richard Arnold is out. The TV 'personality' became the sixth celebrity to be booted off Strictly, and he can now go back to the day job. With four weeks left until the final, mistakes are highlighted and ought to be minimal at this stage - which is why Arnold should never have lasted this long.

For a quick quiz question, who do you think is favourite for highest scorer this weekend? No prizes for guessing Denise Van Outen, and I do mean there are no prizes if you answered correctly. She trades at a very short 1.768/11 price - her lowest in that market of the series.

I can let you in to a secret of how I spent my Saturday night last weekend. I was down at Cheltenham covering three days of the Open Meeting, and rushed back to my hotel to watch some of the dancers. Luckily Denise was on quite early, and produced one of the best performances I have seen for a while. Her 39 point routine should have been 40 really, as judge Craig let the side down with a nine - despite calling it the best Charleston in the history of the programme.

Anyway, I went to the hotel bar which had a brilliant lookalike of Tosh Lines (from The Bill), and I was trying to describe a Charleston to some puzzled onlookers as to how brilliant Denise was. As I have been saying all series, she should be favourite in the winner market, and she nearly is at 2.747/4.

The fact she is so assured and polished means we must now start to think about laying Louis Smith, who is clinging on to favouritism in the winner market by the skin of his err beautifully styled hair. The Olympic gymnast should now be taken on again at 2.427/5 for the glitter ball.

This column could become devoted to my special Denise Van Outen, but other angles are now needed, and one was highlighted last week regarding Dani Harmer. Gaining a green book for betting is like giving an elephant some peanuts, and hopefully the position is now one of strength regarding the tiny 'Tracey Beaker' star.

Dani was trading at 22.021/1 in the winners market and 8.07/1 in the top female last Friday, and both have been cut considerably after another storming weekend dancing. She and Vincent (who I am beginning to like) produced a 36 point quickstep with some amazing footwork. Dancer Ian Waite called her 'the rising star', and they are taking the next step forward.

Dubbed 'team smurf', the pocket duo are lining up a 'Beyonce' influenced samba this Saturday, and I wonder if we'll see a 10 from Len. She is definitely top three material, which means Kimberley might be a target. Dani's price for highest scorer is interesting at 3.1085/40, but she needs to pass the might of Denise. Harmer is currently 14.013/1 in the winner market, and 5.04/1 for top female.

Meanwhile Michael Vaughan is flying. The Betfair ambassador brought the house down at Wembley last weekend with a show-stopping 35 point 'New York, New York' dance. He stole the show, and his ballroom is so much better.

He is tackling the Argentine tango, which should be OK as the majority is in hold. Vaughan's price for highest scorer is 15.014/1,and yet is 2.01/1 for the bottom two and 4.03/1 for seventh elimination. Although Flavia is the ace Argentine tango person, but she's with Louis.

The phone vote is puzzling me, as Victoria Pendleton was the lowest scorer last Saturday with 24 points, and yet evaded the bottom two due to her legions of fans calling in. I wasn't impressed with her BMX entrance, but again she escaped the red zone. She is going salsa this week but she is weak in the Latin.

The lowest scorer looks the one to attack this Saturday, and she is red hot favourite at 1.511/2. Layers might be more interested in the seventh elimination market at 2.447/5, considering she survived last Saturday.

I also tipped up Kimberley in the ante-post market, and for consistency the singer has barely moved up or down for the majority of the series. Her winner odds are now 12.011/1, which means she is on the drift, and she needs to turn some of the 8s into 9s. Her salsa last Saturday was very sexy and 34 points is very good, so her upcoming tango needs to be 35 or higher to her to become a genuine contender. And remember - she has already (shockingly) been in the bottom two.

Walsh has got a great partner in Pasha, and her routine this weekend has lots of turns to promise potential. But I am now siding with Dani, which means the Girls Aloud star might have to be taken on for the top female honours at 5.609/2.

Boy band singer Nicky survived the dance off seven days ago, and is fairly high as a target for the layers this week with odds of 2.285/4 for the bottom two. I don't think he will get the lowest score, as he tackles the Charleston - which is my favourite dance - so I am a layer at 2.829/5. His voters might also come out in force after the surprising situation last week.

Louis Smith needs a big one, and he needs to nail the character-driven paso doble. The gymnast has certainly slipped in the last two weeks, but expectations are perhaps too high. Smith is a superb dancer, but Van Outen is better. And he took a step backwards recently with just 30 points on the show. Smith is not even second favourite for highest scorer this week at 3.309/4, which might just be a short enough price for some to lay.

Incidentally, the Olympian has been matched at 1.9010/11 in the winner market.

The bottom two keeps providing a few surprises, and that market could be a layers paradise, as three of the dancers are currently trading at at 2.285/4 or shorter. I would perhaps take a chance on Lisa Riley at 5.004/1, and who knows, it may even stop her talking for two seconds.

And finally Denise, who is in ballroom again with the American Smooth. Need I say anymore? And by Sunday night we should have a new favourite. Susannah Hoffs may still be my number one, but Van Outen is getting closer.

Recommended bets:
Lay Nicky Byrne for lowest scorer @ 2.829/5
Lay Louis Smith in winner market @ 2.486/4
Back Victoria Pendleton for lowest scorer @ 1.501/2