Ryan Moore: My thoughts on the first day of the Breeders' Cup

Will it be a successful Breeders' Cup for Ryan?

Ryan is stateside for two days of glittering horse racing action at Santa Anita. Here are his thoughts ahead of day one of the 2012 Breeders' Cup  

Juvenile Sprint, 20:06
The Europeans are represented by Ceiling Kitty, and she has a chance. It is always difficult going from grass to dirt but the Queen Mary winner clearly has plenty of speed and the draw has been kind. The trip shouldn't be an issue around here and I don't think she is that far away on form. But obviously you have to favour the home team and it looks as if Merit Man is the pick of those judged on his clear-cut defeat of South Floyd. But you can't be too bullish as obviously a lot of these are unexposed.

Marathon, 20:46 
If Fame And Glory turns up at his 2011 best, then he wins this easily. But it is over a year since he beat Opinion Poll on Champions Day and I have my doubts as to whether he is capable of that level of form any more, and this represents a tough task so soon after his fifth to Rite Of Passage at Ascot. And on dirt, too. And with a visor on for the first time.  
Don't get me wrong, a reproduction of that Ascot fifth could be good enough but he didn't look too happy to me when let down there and Aidan obviously thought the same at the time, as I think he said he "curled up." 
But on the plus side he may not have to come off the bridle to win this, and Aidan has clearly been happy enough with the horse since then - and we saw with Kingsbarns that he is a master of judging his horses at home - and he won this race with Man Of Iron in 2009.
Dermot Weld's Sense Of Purpose has to bounce back from a poor run last time, but has claims on his earlier efforts and we all know how good the trainer is when travelling his horses. But quite often this race falls to the horse that handles the track and surface best and stays, rather than the class horse. Look at Muhannak, who won the first running of this race in 2008. So, in summary, I don't have a strong opinion. If you don't fancy Fame And Glory, then any of these can win.

Juvenile Fillies Turf, 21:28 
You have to give Sky Lantern every chance here, but I am quite surprised she is so short in the betting. She is probably just about the form horse coming into this and she was very impressive in the Moyglare last time, finally delivering the kind of performance the stable always thought she had in her. The draw has been kind, too.
But she has been on the go since May, and that can often be a negative when coming to a Breeders Cup. As is the fact that several of the US horses don't have much to find with her, if anything. Spring Venture has solid winning Graded form in the book, as do the likes of Watsdachances as well, and there looks to be plenty of depth this race as well, with course and distance winner Flashy Ways another to catch my eye.
I wouldn't totally rule out the other British horses either, The Gold Cheongsam and Waterway Run, even if the draw hasn't done them any favours. I rode Jeremy's horse to finish third in a sales race at Newmarket last time and the longer trip and blinkers could see her improve, and Waterway Run did well to win a Group 3 at Newmarket last time. But both need to progress 7lb and more to win this and the draw makes it difficult, so they are probably playing for places at best. I am due to ride one of the reserves, Infanta Branca, if she gets in. She needs to improve a good deal to figure in this field but I rode her out on the track on Thursday morning and she is a nice, big scopey filly with improvement in her.

Juvenile Fillies Dirt, 22:08
I'd be lying if I said that I knew much about any of these. But a look at the race tells me that the race is full of progressive, winning, horses from the top stables, who probably have recorded a similar level of form. In circumstances like that I would always be inclined to side with a horse proven over the trip and with course form, so Executiveprivilege fits that bill. But it's a guessing game from me here.

Filly and Mare Turf, 22:48
I ride Up in this, and I think track, trip and the ground will suit, and the draw could have been worse I suppose. She disappointed last time out in the Sun Chariot, where the mile trip was clearly too sharp for her, and looks to have around 10lb to find with some of these, and has been on the go since April. Reading those facts tell you she is up against it here, but I think she could outrun her price and she has each way claims. It all depends on whether a long season catches up with some of these.
The Fugue has been on the go since the Guineas - though she has not raced since August - but she is probably the form horse in here and will be hard to beat if running up to her best. And the fast ground gives her every chance of doing that.
Ridasiyna really impressed me in winning the Opera and she must have a big shout here if handling the firmer ground. She has won on good, too, earlier in the season, so that is encouraging. Nahrain is interesting in that she is a horse who has steadily found her form this season, and could be peaking at the right time, winning the Flower Bowl at Belmont last time. Her jockey there was apparently of the opinion that blinkers would improve her and I could see her going close in a bid to go one better than her second in this race last year. She looked well when I saw her on Thursday morning.
And then you have In Lingerie, Marketing Mix and I'm a Dreamer to name another three serious contenders on the book. In fact, the more I look, the more I think that Up will have to run a lifetime best to make the frame here. But I do think conditions will suit her, and the pace of the race as well.

Ladies Classic, 23:30
Like the Juvenile Fillies Dirt, I have don't have a strong enough handle on the form of this to give a firm view, and the Timeform ratings tell me that is quite a tight race, too, between three or four of these. Royal Delta won this race last year and comes here on the back of a runaway Grade 1 win last time. But she has never raced here, and Love And Pride at least has that in her favour, as does Include Me Out. But they are probably some way below the market leaders in form terms.