Premier League Stats: Stoke to suffer at West Ham's fortress

Kevin Nolan has starred for West Ham this season

Andrew Atherley discusses the stats that he believes point to another winning weekend for Sam Allardyce's team. Our man also selects the pick of the pointers from other Premier League matches...  

Which is the better bet on this weekend's Premier League programme: QPR at home to Southampton or West Ham at home to Stoke? The markets say it's QPR, the team without a win in 11 league games this season and who have managed just three goals in five home matches.

QPR are 1.9420/21  for the win on Saturday, while West Ham are 2.111/10 to take three points against Stoke in the Monday night game, but those odds do not reflect the Hammers' impressive return to the top flight or Stoke's poor away record against the better sides in the Premier League.

West Ham, like so many good-performing promoted teams before them, are taking some time to convince the markets that their early form is no flash in the pan. As was pointed out last week, however, many form lines are well established by this stage of the season and a look back at previous good starts by promoted teams emphasises how well West Ham are doing.

Eighteen points from their opening 11 games makes West Ham joint-seventh at this stage among all promoted teams since the formation of the Premier League, with a points average of 1.64 per game.

The Hammers are the 11th promoted team to have averaged 1.5 points per game or more at this stage and it is notable that seven of the previous 10 went on to finish in the top half of the table. Only one (Hull, 17th in 2008-09) finished lower than 12th. The average finishing position (to the nearest round figure) is ninth and the median (often a more accurate guide) is also ninth.

The expectation, then, is that West Ham are on course to finish ninth and it is interesting that in their last promotion season (2005-06 under Alan Pardew) they also had 18 points from their first 11 games and went on to finish (guess where?) ninth.

Just like in 2005-06, the Hammers' home form has been solid on their return to the top flight. Their only defeat was 3-1 against Arsenal, but their toughness (and possibly their improvement since that defeat) was exemplified by the goalless draw against Manchester City in their last home game.

Apart from those two games against members of the big six, West Ham's home record is won three and drawn one out of four, which indicates a good chance of victory over Stoke.

Stoke have been a poor away team ever since they joined the Premier League in the 2008-09 season and this season there is no sign of improvement, with no win from six road trips. Their away win rate in the Premier League is a mere 16% and more than half of their victories on the road have been against teams that finished in the bottom six.

West Ham are highly unlikely to end up in the bottom six, which points up the relevance of Stoke's 62% away loss rate against teams above that group. If we accept West Ham are a top-half team in the making, the stats are even more damning for Stoke: they have lost 31 out of 42 (74 per cent) away to top-half teams and have ranked in the bottom two on that measure in two of their four completed seasons in the Premier League.
 
Pick of the stats

Arsenal v Tottenham
The last six Premier League meetings at the Emirates have had over 2.5 goals

West Brom v Chelsea
West Brom's 1-0 home win in March, which signalled the end of Andre Villas-Boas's reign, was their first over Chelsea in the Premier League. Chelsea had won all 11 previous meetings
 
Fulham v Sunderland
Fulham have won 11 out of 17 at home to teams from outside the big six since Martin Jol took charge

Recommended Bets
West Ham to beat Stoke at 2.111/10
Fulham to beat Sunderland at 1.768/11