понедельник, 19 ноября 2012 г.

Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Toffees a sweet bet to beat Reading

Everton are a strong side on the road

Mike Norman previews Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier Leaague, and he believes Everton will prove far too good for newly-promoted Reading...

Liverpool 1.51/2 v Wigan 7.613/2; The Draw 4.77/2

Opta state that Liverpool are unbeaten in six league games, unfortunately for the Reds four of those games have been draws and Brendan Rodgers' men remain in the bottom half of the table. Wigan are one place below Saturday's opponents and their recent form reads two wins, two defeats, and a draw from their last five league outings.

Liverpool should be good enough to win this, but just one win in six on home soil, and just five goals scored, is hardly encouraging. What's more, Wigan have an excellent recent record against the Reds, winning two - including at Anfield last season - and losing none of their last five meetings. A lay of Liverpool at 1.511/2 has to be the bet.

Manchester City 1.232/9 v Aston Villa 17.016/1; The Draw 7.413/2

I wouldn't want to be backing Man City at 1.232/9 against anyone right now, but at the same time I'm not sure I'd like to lay them either as the fact is they are still unbeaten in the league. But their overall play has been a far cry from the scintillating football they produced last season and I stand by my opinion that all is not well within the champions' camp.

Villa looked good against Manchester United last week but it's easy to get up for that game in front of your own fans. I expect Saturday's away trip to result in Paul Lambert's men reverting to their previous poor displays.

Just three away goals scored all season doesn't bode well for Villa, even against a side that has been struggling for clean sheets this term, and I can see this game being a low-scoring affair. Under 2.5 Goals can be backed at 2.9215/8 and I think that is extremely generous.

Newcastle 1.9720/21 v Swansea 4.47/2; The Draw 3.711/4

Just one win in six for Newcastle now including two home defeats without scoring from their last three games at St James Park. And you'd have to wonder where Alan Pardew's men would be without their Senegal strikeforce of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse; the duo having scored 75% of Newcastle's league goals this term.

Swansea are a neat passing side but they lack a cutting edge up front; they've managed just six goals in their last eight leagues games in which they've recorded just a solitary win. I'm of the opinion that avoiding defeat will be a much bigger emphasis than winning, especially for the Swans, and therefore expect a low-scoring game.

If there is to be a winner then it will be Newcastle, but Under 2.5 Goals at 2.111/10 is the way to play this one.

QPR 2.01/1 v Southampton 4.1n/a; The Draw 3.7511/4

This is arguably the game of the day, especially from a Grim Reaper's view. Defeat for QPR and it will possible spell the end of Mark Hughes' reign at Loftus Road; defeat for Southampton and it will be hard to envisage how they can beat the drop, even at this early stage of the season.

The problems for each side are obvious; as Opta point out, QPR don't score many (just five in their last seven league games on home soil), and Southampton can't stop conceding (18 against in their five away games this season). Something will give on Saturday, and my hunch is that QPR will net a few times.

That's not to say the Saints won't score themselves, but the feeling is that if QPR get on the scoresheet then they'll go a long way to winning the game. Even money for a home win is tempting, but it's not a market to get too seriously involved in for me.

Reading 4.67/2 v Everton 1.865/6; The Draw 4.03/1

I was disappointed to see Everton available to back at just 1.865/6 for the win as I was hoping to get matched at around the 2.01/1 mark. The To loffeesok a solid bet here based on the season so far.

Reading are without a league win all season whilst Opta point out that Everton have lost just one of their last 11 away games in the Premier League. What I like about David Moyes' men is that they look to have goals in them from all over the pitch. In fact Opta tell us that they are the only side in the top-flight with two players on at least five league goals - Marouane Fellaini (six) and Nikica Jelavic (five).

And when you consider the likes of Leighton Baines, Leon Osman, Steven Pienaar, and the ever-improving Kevin Mirallas, are all capable of chipping in with a goal at any time, then you can understand why I'm making an Everton win my best bet of the day.

West Brom 4.1n/a v Chelsea 2.021/1; The Draw 3.814/5

I know a lot of good judges who fancy the Baggies to get at least a point from this encounter, especially with John Terry on the sidelines for the Blues. But I have a feeling that Albion's bubble will burst sooner rather than later and when you look at the side Roberto di Matteo can field then it could easily be on Saturday afternoon.

Not that losing to the current European champions would be a set-back for West Brom - providing they don't get hammered of course - after all, if this were an opening day of the season game most people would fancy Chelsea strongly. Despite the home side's terrific start to the season, I still fancy Chelsea strongly.

Recommended Bets

Lay Liverpool @ 1.511/2 v Wigan
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.9215/8 in Man City v Villa
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.111/10 in Newcastle v Swansea
Back QPR @ 2.01/1 to beat Southampton
Back Everton @ 1.865/6 to beat Reading
Back Chelsea @ 2.021/1 to beat West Brom

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