пятница, 9 ноября 2012 г.

Musselburgh Placepot: Thursday November 8

Today's Placepot comes from Musselburgh.

You'd struggle to get two courses more different than Musselburgh and Towcester for today's two jumps meetings. Keith Melrose thinks the safer option is at the flat, seaside track in East Lothian...

13:00 - This is about as ordinary a race as you'd expect a 0-95 to be, so we have to accept the possibility of a first-leg exit. There is some risk attached to first selection Waltham Abbey, with him not having run for over two months, but he was reliable in the summer when conditions weren't testing and he's therefore likely to have things in his favour at this famously well-draining course. Similar comments on ground probably apply to Auberge, and he's on a workable mark going by his second-placed finish at this track when last seen in January.

13:30 - Dovils Date commands respect as one with a good profile for juvenile hurdles, but with no race experience over timber we're going to take the more solid option of Forster Street as a banker. He's improved by the run over hurdles, having had three now, and this sharp track looks likely to prove right up his street.

14:00 - With this being a tricky maiden hurdle there's no point in trying to finesse it, and as such we can stick in another banker, this time Doyly Carte. She won on her debut in bumpers at the start of the year, suggesting she can be readied first time up, while she's also in the excellent hands of Donald McCain.

14:30 - Given his profile, Mentalist is too short a price and we'll be taking him on. Our two best options look to be William Money, who is well worth persevering with at around this trip, and Call it On, the latter having handicap form over C&D.

15:00 - A change in likely conditions and the absence of a 10 lb claim are doubts over Purcell's Bridge, but he comes out so far clear on the figures, and has so little in the way of opposition here, that we can still view him as a banker.

15:30 - A tricky final leg to negotiate, but having three places to aim at does help us out somewhat. Via Archimede is a natural first choice, as he had a decent record here as a hurdler and has taken well enough to fences thus far. We're also going to give Or de Grugy, a winner over a similar trip at Kelso last time, a chance to continue his resurgence for Nick Alexander.

Selections:

13:00 - 4, 5
13:30 - 4
14:00 - 1
14:30 - 2, 9
15:00 - 9
15:30 - 4, 7
= 8 lines

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