понедельник, 5 ноября 2012 г.

Melbourne Cup: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

Who will get their hands on the Melbourne Cup Trophy?

Timeform's Australian team give their view on each of the runners in 'the race that stops a nation', the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on Tuesday (04:00 GMT).

Dunaden won this race last year. Form has been as good since and then went to a new level when powering over the top to win the Caulfield Cup. The clear class in this field and a big chance on that form.

Americain was plain in the Kergorlay but much improved when running on strongly, wide throughout, in the Caulfield Cup. Won this race in 2010 and he's right in the mix again on the back of latest.

Jakkalberry won the inaugural running of the American St Leger at Arlington before trapped wide throughout at Caulfield last time. Battled on okay but still has plenty to find on latest form to threaten here.

Red Cadeaux was beaten by the narrowest of margins in this race last years. Form since has been terrific. Off the track for 117 days leading into this which is some query but he must be respected.

Winchester is getting back and finding the line okay but not threatening to win. Shapes as though he will stay the 3200m but a wide draw likely forces him a well back again and he's likely to have to much to do.

Voila Ici had been solid prior to a well below form effort in the Caulfield Cup. Weakened right out of it late. He's a winner at 2800m in the past but 3200m is a query on latest evidence. Looks tested.

Cavalryman produced form throughout this season in England that has been consistently good. That said, his limitations have been exposed and he looks unlikely to take the required step forward to be winning here.

Mount Athos is unbeaten in three since joining this yard at the start of the year. Progressive, well weighted and well drawn. Looks ideally placed to deliver Cumani what would be a well deserved win in this race.

Sanagas ran an improved race in the Caulfield Cup, though still well short of what is to be required here. Hard to dismiss one from this yard on this day, but he needs to take a big step forward to figure.

Ethiopia's latest couple have been very good. Would need to go to a clear new peak to be winning this but he is lightly raced and progressive. Can run a big race.

Fiorente joins a new yard for this. Form this season has been mixed but when on song he's a good talent. Big ask at his first run in 117 days, on the other side of the world, but not entirely dismissed.

Galileo's Choice is lightly raced and progressive in Ireland. Has a bit to find on form but he runs for an astute yard that has won this twice and is one that must be kept under consideration.

Glencadam Gold has been progressive for this yard, winning the Metropolitan in good style before finding little when the pressure went on at Caulfield. Strong run 3200m has to be a big query here on latest showing.

Green Moon looked on track for this, winning the Turnbull here. Below form in the Cox Plate last time but looking for further and back to a handicap suits him. Capable of putting latest behind him.

Maluckyday got back to something like his form here two back and then good late with muddling tempo against at Geelong. Runner up in this race two years back. Not harshly treated and will stay. Respected.

Mourayan produced a good tough win in the Craven Plate last time. Looks sure to stay the trip. Genuine and honest. Can roll forward and take plenty of pegging back in this.

My Quest For Peace came down under with good winning form and ran the classic Cumani race in the Caulfield Cup, poking along into fifth. Capable of building on that form and shapes as a genuine each way hope.

Niwot has been ticking over okay this campaign over shorter trips. Was disappointing last time in the Caulfield Cup, however, and while sure to stay the trip looks up against it now.

Tac de Boistron came down under with useful form. Well below that with the muddling pace against last time but didn't show much dash and fancy he would need plenty of rain if he's to threaten at all.

Lights of Heaven's latest couple have been good. Back to her best when third in the Caulfield Cup but has more on her plate here and whether she is capable of further improvement is a query.

Precedence has had four cracks at 3200m now without running to the best of his form. Exposed and better suited over shorter.

Unusual Suspect has been in plain form this campaign, as he was in Dubai at the start of the year, and would genuinely shock if he were to mount any form of winning challenge.

Zabeelionaire was good in the Caulfield Cup and then turned in the classic Mackinnon run on Saturday. Has plenty more to do on form but he's coming along nicely and is expected to stay. One for multiples.

Kelinni was solid in the Metropolitan and then won the Lexus well on Saturday. That race has been a good guide in recent years and he is honest but he does look a place chance at best here.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Mount Athos
2. Green Moon
3. Dunaden

Timeform View: Luca Cumani has run second in this race twice but looks well placed to break through for what would be a well deserved win this year as he brings his strongest team yet spearheaded by Mount Athos. His form ties in strongly and he looks to be a step ahead of the handicapper. Green Moon's Cox plate run can be forgiven while the French, Dunaden and Americain, shape as leading contenders once again.

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