Manchester City v Ajax: Home side to win eventually

A lot more of this will be needed if City are to get out of Group D

Mike Norman expects Man City to keep their slim hopes of Champions League qualification alive when Ajax visit on Tuesday night, but it won't be an easy game for the home side...

First the reality. In order to qualify for the knockout phase of this season's Champions League Manchester City must beat Ajax on Tuesday night, then Real Madrid a fortnight later, and finally Borussia Dortmund away from home in early December.

Anything less than 10 points for Roberto Mancini's men won't be good enough, but even this points tally is unlikely to see the Premier League champions progress further in Europe's elite club competition.

And anyone who saw Dortmund out-play and out-class City at the Etihad last month, and Ajax expose the Citizen's fragile defence two weeks ago, will not be joining a queue to back Man City at 5.04/1 in the Group D To Qualify market. Come to think of it, I'm not sure I'd want to be joining a queue to back them at five times that price!

City's first task is to take three points against Dutch outfit Ajax, and this won't be as straightforward as perhaps it should be.

Let's be honest, Mancini's squad is far better, far stronger, and whatever starting XI takes to the field on Tuesday night ought to be good enough to beat most teams in Europe on home soil, let alone a Dutch side that sit outside the top four in their domestic league and have won just one away game all season.

But there's something about this current Man City side that worries me. They don't look a happy group at all. Not happy with the way Mancini wants them to play, no happy with each other, individuals not performing to their best. Whatever the reasons they just don't look comfortable right now.

Match Odds: Man City 1.454/9, Ajax 8.27/1, Draw 5.14/1

So given what I've said above you'd think I'd be recommending a lay on City at around 1.4640/85. In all honestly I expected City to be around the 1.330/100 mark to win this game so no I won't be laying them.

For the record I think Mancini's men will scrape a victory, but I certainly don't want to be backing them at 1.454/9 against a side that will come to the Etihad with nothing to lose and brimming with confidence following that 3-1 win a fortnight ago. It's a no bet market for me then with much better opportunities elsewhere.

Half Time markets

City have been painfully slow starters this term; in fact from 15 league and cup games played they have yet to score more than one first half goal in a game - seven of those games saw the current English champions reach the interval goalless, including the last three league encounters. What's more, seven of City's last nine games have been all square after the first 45 minutes of play.

The hunch is that this game will follow suit; City starting slowly having plenty of possession, passing and probing without making a breakthrough, before some second half urgency and a few substitutions see them over the finishing line.

The Half Time Draw looks a decent wager then at around 2.89/5, and I can see why the 0-0 HT Score - available to back at 3.9n/a - is proving a popular selection. And for those of you desperately hoping City win the game, then try Draw/Man City at 5.04/1 in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Man City Win from Behind

This is not a market I usually get involved in but if you can get matched at around 10.09/1 for the Yes option then it could be worth a small wager.

There's plenty of reason to be hopeful too, much I've discussed already - City being slow starters for example. But given the way Mancini's men have defended this term there's every chance that Ajax will get on the scoresheet, especially if the highly-promising Christian Eriksen turns up in the same form as two weeks ago.

Recommended Bets

Back HT Draw @ 2.89/5
Back Draw/Man City HT/FT @ 5.04/1
Back Man City Win from Behind @ around 10.09/1