Lee Dixon: Newcastle can frustrate Liverpool

Lee's backing Cisse to score again

Lee Dixon selects the best bets as two mid-table giants meet at Anfield on Sunday afternoon... 

  

Liverpool aren't the force they used to be, Anfield isn't the fortress it was and Newcastle are a club in the ascendancy. Or are they?

The Magpies sit tenth in the table, only three points ahead of 12th-placed Liverpool, after their own mixed run of results. What was once an exciting Premier League match-up with plenty of goals in the offing, now looks like it could be a dour, mid-table affair. 

Newcastle got lucky last week with Papiss Cisse's late winner against West Brom. That was the Senegalese's first goal in nine matches and I wonder if it might give him the impetus to go and get another here. I was always teasing strikers in training when they hadn't scored for a few weeks and it often had the desired effect because that weekend, whether it was Ian Wright, Dennis Bergkamp or Alan Smith, they tended to go out and hit a hatful. I'm backing Cisse to score here.

Liverpool will be kicking themselves for letting slip a two goal lead against Everton. Their failure to maintain momentum in that match summed up their start to the season under Brendan Rogers.  Opta tell me they have a brilliant record against Newcastle, winning 15 of their last 17 against the Geordies at Anfield, but I can't take odds of 1.594/7 on the home win.

The most telling stat is, as ever, the one that deals in recent history. Liverpool have won only three of their last 14 at home in the league. I feel like typing that one again because it really should leap off the page as a reason to oppose the Reds here. 

Newcastle are yet to win on the road and, while I think Alan Pardew is going to get it right soon, they are draw specialists. I wouldn't be surprised if they edged this but the safest bet, for my money, is to lay Liverpool.

Recommended Bet
Lay Liverpool @ 1.68/13
Back Papiss Cisse to score 

The Tactical View: Michael Cox

I completely agree with Lee. Liverpool are favourites, but they shouldn’t be [1.6] – I don’t think I’d back them at [1.6] against any Premier League side considering their poor home form in 2012, let alone a decent side like Newcastle. However, I’d wait to see on Newcastle’s injury news. Demba Ba might be unavailable, which would make that price a little more realistic. But Liverpool have been underpriced for all their home matches this season, and I’ll oppose them again here.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

I slightly disagree with Lee on this one. Liverpool home form this season, which includes only one win, is very disappointing. However, they have faced both Manchester teams and Arsenal at Anfield and, while they did only pick up a point from those three games, they aren’t easy fixtures. The other home matches were against Stoke (a draw) and that solitary win came against Reading. Liverpool are also unbeaten in their last four in the league.  

Newcastle, as Lee says, have a terrible record at Anfield, picking up just five points from a possible 54 (one win, two draws and 15 defeats). They have conceded two or more goals on their last seven trips to Anfield, are without an away win this season and there is also speculation that leading scorer Ba may not be fit for the game.

I will be entering this one in the correct score market with Liverpool 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and looking to cover on over 3.5 goals.