Find Me a 100 Winner: Birdie machine Fraser can bely huge odds

Marcus Fraser has the game to upset bigger names this week

There's only one outsider on Paul Krishnamurty's radar in China this week, and he's an old friend of our column...

So far as the purposes of this column are concerned, this tail-end of the golfing calendar is far from ideal. There's often only one tournament to choose from, and virtually all events have either limited fields or lack strength in depth. This week's WGC-HSBC Champions Trophy is a classic case in point. A plethora of world-class candidates at the head of the market, and mostly a series of complete no-hopers among the rags.

Consequently what would normally be a time-consuming process of eliminating potential picks, becomes quick and easy. Only one player among the triple-figure range caught my eye, and he is somebody very well-known to regular readers of this column. Marcus Fraser came closer than anyone has to delivering that elusive 100 winner this year, when losing a play-off for the BMW International Open. Just five starts later, without missing a top-25, Fraser remains ridiculously under-estimated at odds of 230.0229/1.

On paper, this week's test should perfectly suit the experienced Aussie's skills-set. Mission Hills GC has been likened to an Australian sand-belt course, which should obviously suit a man who was runner-up in prestigious events on both his last two homeland appearances# As somebody whose principle attributes are putting and birdie accumulation, the expected low-scoring should be ideal. He also has plenty of Far-East form in co-sanctioned events.

It is asking a lot for Fraser to beat the likes of Luke Donald and Ian Poulter, but our trading strategy doesn't depend on him even putting up a particularly serious challenge. Because there's only one pick this week, we can afford to set our least ambitious lay target of the year to date. Should Fraser shorten to just 30.029/1, we'll make four times our initial outlay, whilst leaving a substantial position before and after the second lay target at 3.02/1.

Recommended Bets

Back Marcus Fraser 2u @ 230.0229/1

Place order to lay 10u @ 30.029/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 3.02/1

Updated 2012 Stats: +28 units