Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic: Get with the vets

John Rollins, one of The Punter’s picks in Florida

Our man takes a detailed look at the PGA Tour's final event of the season, where backing big-priced, birdie making veterans could be the way to go...

Tournament History
This will be the 42nd staging of the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic. It's the fourth and final Fall Series event and the final event of the 2012 PGA Tour season.  As it's the final event, much interest will surround who makes the top 125 on the money-list to secure their cards for 2013.

Venue
Disney's Magnolia and Palm Golf Clubs, Lake Buena Vista, Florida.

Staged over two courses, the first two rounds are played out over the Magnolia and Palm Courses, with the third and fourth rounds at Magnolia. 

Course Details 
Par 72, 7,516yards (Host Course - Magnolia)
Stroke index in 2011 - 70.80 (Host Course - Magnolia)

Both courses are straightforward Bermuda grass resort courses designed by Joe Lee in 1971, where low scoring is the norm. They're both par 72s but Palm is about 500 yards shorter and by around two strokes, the easier of the two courses. Water is in play on 10 of the 18 holes on the Magnolia course, so if you look hard enough, you can find a bit of trouble.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Details
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, 6.00pm on Thursday, Friday and Saturday and 8.00pm on Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Luke Donald -17
2010 - Robert Garrigus -21
2009 - Stephen Ames -18 (playoff)
2008 - Davis Love III -25
2007 - Stephen Ames -17

What will it take to win the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic?
Over the last 15 years, 11 winners have led the field for birdies made.  Three winners ranked second and the other third! It's not about avoiding bogeys, it's all about making birdies, and lots of them. Not surprisingly, the key stat for this event is putting - nine of the last 10 winners have ranked in the top-10 for Putts Per Round.
You need to make a score around Palm. Stephen Ames (70 in 2009) is the only winner in the last 11 years to shoot bigger than a 68 around there.

Is there an identikit winner?
Veterans have a great record at the event and so do outsiders. Luke Donald was fancied when he won last year but triple-figure priced winners are fairly common. 

In-Play Tactics
Oppose third round leaders and players with money-list pressures. 

Seven of the last eight winners have been trailing with a round to go and the average final round score of the last eight winners is 64.5 (the last four winners have all shot 64 on day four). This is most definitely a tournament for off-the-pace winners.

Two years ago, Roland Thatcher needed to finish in the top-two to keep his card. He hit a low of 1.271/4 when he stood on the 17th tee on Saturday with a six shot lead but the immense pressure took its toll and he was caught and passed before the back-nine on Sunday. Don't get all sentimental, if someone desperate to keep his playing privileges intact shoots clear early on and trades at odds-on, take them on.

Market Leaders
If there's value towards the head of the market, I'll be damned if I can see it! Robert Garrigus' win here two years ago remains his sole success on the PGA Tour and he's not one to trust implicitly in-contention. Whilst Brendon de Jonge, vying with Garrigus for tournament favourite status, is still looking for his first win. 

Selections
I've employed very similar tactics here as the ones adopted at the recent McGladrey Classic. A gaggle of outsiders have been backed from the off - some with current form, some with course form and some with barely either. They're all experienced or at the veteran stage and If I get a few in the mix heading into Sunday, as I did at the McGladrey, that will give me scope to trade the final round heavily and try and make a profit.

Troy Matteson @ 75.074/1
John Rollins @ 75.074/1
Justin Leonard @ 90.089/1
Rory Sabbatini @ 100.099/1
Brian Gay @ 130.0129/1
D.J Trahan @ 150.0149/1
Heath Slocum @ 160.0159/1
Arjun Atwal @ 190.0189/1

I'll be back on Friday morning with the In-Play Blog.