Chelsea v Shakhtar: Reversal of fortunes no guarantee

Shakhtar were comfortable winners in Donetsk only two weeks ago.

The champions are on the ropes and need three points at home to Shakhtar to get their campaign back on track. Jaymes Monte picks out his best bets...

Just four points from a possible nine means that Chelsea need to get back to winning ways when they host Shakhtar this Wednesday. The Blues are without a win in four (in normal time) in all competitions, while defeat in Ukraine last time out handed the initiative to Donetsk in Champions League Group E.

Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 27 home Champions League games, but the last manager to win at The Bridge was Shakhtar boss Mircea Lusecu who masterminded a 2-0 win over the Blues when in charge of Besiktas back in October 2003.

Team News

Roberto di Matteo has admitted that his team have missed John Terry whilst he served a domestic ban. The Chelsea captain will return to the heart of a defence that has leaked eight goals in four games during his absence. Frank Lampard remains unavailable with a calf injury picked up in Donetsk a fortnight ago, but Juan Mata should return having missed the weekend trip to Swansea.

Lusecu opted to rest a number of players at the weekend with Brazilian trio Luiz Adriano, Willian and Alex Teixeira all making an appearance from the substitute's bench as Shakhtar made it 14 wins from 14 league games with a 2-0 win over Metalurg Zaporizhya. Andriy Pyatov and Tomas Hubschman were unused subs and Henrik Mkhitaryan wasn't even named in the squad. All six should return to the starting XI here.

Match Odds

Having won so comfortably when the sides met just 14 days ago, Shakhtar look way too big at odds of 4.1n/a. And considering Chelsea's recent run of form the home side also look way too skinny at odds of just 2.021/1.

An impressive home record in this competition is obviously a mitigating factor in the above, but logic suggests a straightforward lay of the hosts who have won just one of their last five Champions League matches.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

The game in Donetsk may have only just crept over the 2.5 threshold with a late consolation strike from Oscar, but our Opta stats tell us that there were as many as 20 shots on target in the game (11 for Shakhtar and nine for Chelsea). Only two Champions League games since 2006-07 have had more.

Shakhtar have scored on all four of their previous visits to England, while Chelsea have only once failed to score at Stamford Bridge in all competitions since March of this year.

Back Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.824/5.

Both Teams To Score

The above leads naturally onto the assumption that both teams will find the back of the net. Add in the knowledge that both sides have scored in each of Chelsea's last six matches and the 1.645/8 available on both teams to score this midweek looks another obvious punt.

To Score

The consequence of Chelsea being made such commanding favourites in the Match Odds market is that a number of Shakhtar's players are underestimated in the goalscorer markets.

It took Alex Teixeira just three minutes to breach the Chelsea defence in Donetsk and score his second of the campaign. Yet he can be backed at odds as big as 4.57/2 to find the back of the net here.

Henrik Mkitaryan has 14 goals in 13 domestic league games, and two in three in the Champions League, yet can be backed at odds of 4.03/1 to score this Wednesday.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Chelsea to win @ 2.021/1
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.824/5
Back Henrik Mkitaryan to score @ 4.03/1