вторник, 20 ноября 2012 г.

Bundesliga Betting: Back Eagles to shake their tailfeathers against abject Augsburg

Eintracht's Kevin Trapp is one of Germany's finest young keepers

Eintracht Frankfurt have adapted well to life back in the top flight, and Kevin Hatchard expects them to take three points this weekend against the league's bottom side.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Eintracht 1.855/6, Augsburg 4.94/1, the draw 3.9n/a

Eintracht are having their first wobble of the season, having won just one of their last five matches. In fairness to Armin Veh's newly-promoted side, the quality of opposition has been strong in that period. Defeats to improving sides like Borussia Monchengladbach and Stuttgart were perfectly understandable, as was last week's 2-0 reverse at leaders Bayern Munich.

Indeed, Eintracht played pretty well at the Allianz Arena. They were only 1-0 down with 13 minutes remaining, and were unlucky not to level when Anderson saw a thumping header strike the crossbar. Eintracht were able to hang in there largely because of another outstanding display from keeper Kevin Trapp, who was forced to make a catalogue of excellent stops. The Germany U21 international has racked up fifty saves in 11 Bundesliga games, and he has excelled since joining from Kaiserslautern in the summer.

Eintracht's home form has been exceptional, with four wins and two draws. Bayer Leverkusen, Hamburg and Hannover have all suffered defeats at the Commerzbank Arena, while champions Borussia Dortmund had to settle for a 3-3 draw.

Frankfurt striker Alex Meier has been in stellar form, with seven goals in 11 league games, while midfielders Takashi Inui and Stefan Aigner have chipped in with three goals each. If last season's Bundesliga Zwei top scorer Olivier Occean recaptures his best form, Eintracht will be tough to stop.

Augsburg are bottom after last week's 3-1 home defeat to Dortmund. Markus Weinzierl's strugglers created plenty of chances, but their trademark lack of composure in front of goal once again proved costly. The return of Sascha Molders from injury is a boost (he scored against BVB), but he has plenty of work to do to salvage the league's worst attack.

FCA haven't scored a single goal in their last four Bundesliga away games, and their overall record of six goals in 11 games is pitiful. On that basis I would back No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.285/4. I also think the Eintracht win is overpriced at 1.855/6, so take advantage.

Key Opta Stat: Only two Bundesliga teams have collected more points at home than Eintracht (14).

Recommended Bets: Back Eintracht to win at 1.855/6

Back No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.285/4

Hannover vs Freiburg, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Hannover 2.111/10, Freiburg 3.8514/5, the draw 3.711/4

Regular readers will be sick of me banging on about how good Hannover are at home, but I'll stop tipping them when the market stops making them bigger than evens to win at the AWD Arena.

Mirko Slomka's men showed their attacking power and their determination in last week's 4-2 win at Stuttgart. The 96ers were 2-0 down after 57 minutes, but proceeded to score four goals in 16 mad minutes.

Ahead of Saturday's clash with Freiburg, the Opta stats are clearly in the home side's favour. Hannover have lost just one of their last 24 home games in the league, and they are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Freiburg.

Freiburg are much tougher under coach Christian Streich than they were under his hapless predecessor Marcus Sorg. The men from the Black Forest have let in just 13 goals in 11 games, compared with 26 conceded at the same stage last season. That said, Freiburg have managed just one win from five away games, and they've scored just four Bundesliga goals on their travels.

Recommended Bet: Back Hannover to win at 2.111/10

Nurnberg vs Bayern Munich, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Nurnberg 13.5n/a, Bayern 1.330/100, the draw 6.05/1

Leaders Bayern head into this Bavarian derby with a seven-point lead at the top of the table, and they have every reason to think they will rack up another victory. Bayern's away form has been terrific - they have won all five road games, scoring fifteen goals and conceding none. Conversely, Nurnberg have won just one of their five home games, and they haven't won any of their last nine meetings with Saturday's opponents.

It's tough to see Nurnberg scoring in this one, as their only attacking threat seems to be from the set-pieces of Japanese international midfielder Hiroshi Kiyotake, so I would back Bayern to keep a clean sheet. To beef up the price for a Bayern win, it's worth backing Bayern/Bayern in the HT/FT market, which has paid out in eight of their ten wins.

Recommended Bets: Back Bayern to keep a clean sheet at 1.9620/21

Back Bayern/Bayern in the HT/FT market at 1.855/6

You can follow Kevin on Twitter @kevinhatchard

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