David Denton will bolster the Scotttish pack considerably
Geoffrey Riddle was on the mark with both of his tips last week, backing South Africa to win narrowly in Dublin and taking New Zealand to beat Scotland handsomely in the first half. He's got several beauties this week, and believes Scotland look a big price to overturn the Springboks.
Scotland v South Africa
Match stats:
* Scotland and South Africa have hardly been prolific tryscorers of late. Both sides have scored only nine tries in their past five matches.
* As a result, neither side have scored over 100 points in total during those fixtures.
* South Africa have won only three of their last ten matches away from home or on neutral turf against tier one sides.
* South Africa scored their only try against Ireland last week when Jamie Heaslip was in the sin bin.
* South Africa made no clean breaks in Dublin. They also turned over more ball than their hosts and conceded more penalties.
* By scoring 22 points against New Zealand last week, Scotland achieved their highest points haul against the All Blacks since 1996 and their best at Murrayfield since 1983.
*Australia were the last team to score more than 22 points against the All Blacks when they beat Graham Henry's side 25-20 in Brisbane in August 2011. That's a run of 18 matches.
Match preview:
Scotland may have been handed a painful lesson at the hands of New Zealand last week but Andy Robinson's side look massively overpriced at 5.39/2 on Betfair to create an upset against South Africa at Murrayfield on Saturday.
Heyneke Meyer fielded one of the worst Springbok sides ever witnessed last week against Ireland after injuries had ravaged his touring squad. That Declan Kidney also could only scratch together a half-decent XV masked what was a bumbling effort from South Africa, who prevailed 16-12.
South Africa resorted to appalling tactics, with Willem Alberts disgracefully kneeing Jonathan Sexton in the ribs, and JP Pietersen rightly receiving a yellow card for tackling Chris Henry early. They used their power game to good effect, though with Adriaan Strauss going close from a line-out drive and Jean De Villiers almost scoring from a classic bulldozer manoeuvre.
Scotland will not be so easily bullied. Richie Gray, Jim Hamilton and the returning David Denton are hewn from the same rock that produced so many of Scotland's finest forwards down the years. Denton is ably supported by the under-rated and bulky Ally Strokosch and Kelly Brown in the back-row, while as the match takes place on a Saturday devout Christian Euan Murray can take his place beside Ross Ford in the front-row. It is a pack that can certainly go toe-to-toe with the Springbok eight.
What's more, South Africa have a terrible record away from home in recent seasons. Excluding the World Cup, the Springboks have beaten only England and Ireland away from the Rainbow Nation since Scotland turned them over 21-17 in November 2010. Interestingly, Scotland had received a hammering at the hands of the All Blacks a week previously.
Even at the World Cup in New Zealand South Africa were lukewarm. They held off Wales to win 17-16 in the Pool stages before struggling past Samoa 13-5 and going down to Australia 11-9.
Scotland's performance against New Zealand was not as poor as the scoreline shows and they put up a bold effort against New Zealand last week for the first quarter. At 5.39/2 in the match betting market they look a fair trading vehicle, especially with South Africa starting so slowly in Dublin. Double your stake on Scotland at the outset and if they are ahead after 20 minutes lay off half and let it run. As a saver, back the home side on the handicap receiving 10.5 as it really should be no bigger than seven.
Recommended investment (1-5pt staking plan)
3pts Scotland to win at 5.39/2 with a view to laying off half after 20-25 minutes
1pt Scotland +10.5 points
France v Argentina
Match stats:
* France start with five players in their run-on XV that boast fewer than ten caps. In contrast, Argentina field just one such player in their XV, although their bench looks light with only one player with no player with over 20 caps.
* France underperform when playing in the autumn out of the Stade de France and not in the Marseille's Stade Velodrome. They have played six such matches going back to 2005 and have been handicap losers in five of them including against Argentina two seasons ago.
* France generated 24 turnovers against Australia last week.
* All in the French kicked twice as often as the Wallabies in Paris, which got them out of jail as they only enjoyed 39 per cent possession.
* Felipe Contepomi is Argentina's record point-scorer with 631. He misses the match through injury.
Match preview:
France have moved their clash with Argentina to Lille on Saturday night in the hope of taking the sting out of the fixure but with 22 of the 30 players in the Grand Stade Metropole playing their trade in France there will be no love lost between these men.
Making money out of backing Argentina against Les Bleus has been relatively for the past decade. Argentina have won eight of the 12 Tests between the two teams in that time and have been consistently under-rated, until now.
France have every right to be considered 1-4 shots after their stunning victory over Australia last week in Paris. According to my database, teams ranked similarly to France beat teams such as Argentina around 84 per cent of the time, making the home side look considerable value at 1.331/3 on Betfair.
France are every bit as good as Australia and South Africa, according to the IRB world rankings, and those sides enjoyed narrow victories over Los Pumas in the inaugural Rugby Championship this summer.
Although it is likely that the 2.285/4 about Philippe Saint-Andre's side winning by 1-12.5 points will be bettered in the lead-up to the match, anything over 2.47/5 should be considered.
Where this late-night fixture will be won is in the battle of the back-rows, a head-on collision which is certainly not for the fainthearted.
Fulgence Ouedraogo, Yannick Nyanga and Louis Picamoles are a destructive trio for the French, and Picamoles was outstanding last week when putting in more tackles than all 14 of his team-mates. Of course Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe was a man-mountain against Wales, not only destroying the Welsh flankers, but creating space for others. On balance the French triumvirate look a better blend.
Argentina brushed aside Wales, the Six Nations champions, last week. It could have been a lot worse as Los Pumas missed two drop-goal attempts and three penalties. Where Argentina produced something special, however, was in their ability to off-load. An off-loading game is the holy grail in modern rugby, and Santiago Phelan's players did it superbly out of the tackle. In all they made seven clean breaks and if they are in the same form they will score points.
France also made numerous clean breaks against the sloppy Australians in Paris, and their kicking game was much improved when shared between Frederic Michalak, as well as Maxime Machenaud, the scrum-half and Brice Dulin, the full-back. Australia enjoyed 61% of the possession, but time and again the French kicked themselves out of danger. The back-row acted as a defensive wall by tackling and forcing an astonishing amount of turnovers and the line speed of Les Bleus shocked the Wallabies.
It remains to be seen whether France can replicate such tactics against a less adventurous side such as Argentina but on ratings, and what I saw last week, the home side are the bet in anyway you can get on.
Recommended investment (1-5pt staking plan)
3pts France at 1.331/3
1pt France to win by 1-12.5 points
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