Against All Odds: Goals to flow in Belgium with Milan in town

It's been one of those seasons for AC Milan

Anderlecht host AC Milan in the Champions League with the Betfair markets suggesting there will be few goals, however Paul Robinson disagrees.

Group C is a pretty tight affair for second place as tonight's opponents and bottom club, Zenit, are all within two points of each other. Anderlecht know that a win is absolutely vital as they have to travel to Malaga for their final game, while the other two take each other on in what would be a straight shoot out for second place if the Belgian's are defeated this evening.

John van den Brom has his side back in excellent form after a poor run and it's now five victories in a row, including a 1-0 win over Zenit in the Champions League. The Belgian champions are pretty formidable at their home of the Constant Vanden Stock Stadium, winning 12 of 14 so far this term, with eight of them going over 2.5 goals.

AC Milan are having a dire campaign by their recent standards and manager, Massimiliano Allegri, is a man under pressure. Failure to qualify for the knockout phase of this competition will further add to that as their form domestically won't save him.

As far as the goals go; four of their last five have had three goals or more and it's been six games since they last earned a clean sheet. Things have been even more prolific on the road; seven of nine going over 2.5, with six going over 3.5, three going over 4.5 and one even going over 5.5 goals.

It seems that under 2.5 goals has been priced on reputation and not form, and with both teams so desperate to win, the odds of 1.855/6 look far too short and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Anderlecht v AC Milan @ 1.855/6

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 264 pts
Returned: 273.98 pts
P/L + 9.98 pts