League Two Midweek Betting: Hartlepool to prosper

Live long and prosper, like Leonard Nimoy's character Mr Spock, by avoiding short prices

Ian Lamont shuns the trappy-looking shorter-priced teams and, while little is ever logical in League Two, seeks value by entrusting Ronnie Moore's side and Cambridge to win...

Dagenham 2.47/5 v Hartlepool 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

Leonard Nimoy's death last Friday left me pondering how to live long and prosper and how we do it in football betting: partially the key is to strip out the emotion, like his most famous character Mr Spock on Star Trek - and even he wavered.

I like putting the emotional flesh on the statistical bones as much as anyone, but last week overlooked the themes of being wary of a side which has just posted six goals, plus the season-long bid to try to find when Shrewsbury would lose at home.

It would be easy to go for several 'obvious' wins in Tuesday's fixtures - Oxford, Newport, Bury, Shrewsbury for example, is about 15.014/1 as a four timer in the multiples. But layers know the 'obvious' results all come off at once only in a blue moon - and I haven't 'prospered' (kept in plus points) this season by backing short prices.

Which brings me to the chance bet: Hartlepool, who haven't won two games in a row since February 2014. But what they have done is drawn one and won four of their last nine matches. They have won twice away, at AFC Wimbledon in August and Exeter in October. Both would have been considered against-the-grain results, which shows they are capable of upsets.

Wayne Burnett's Dagenham had been on a good run (one defeat in nine) until losing against first Burton and then at Mansfield, in what their manager described as a poor match.
The fact that the Daggers (now with a little breathing space) are in the dog fight with Pools might turn this match into another scrappy encounter, which will suit the visitors, whose recent wins seem to have come in those circumstances.

They will, of course, have to be galvanised by the loss of Michael Woods, arguably their most influential players, to a serious injury. They scored their winner on Saturday after he was stretchered off.

Ronnie Moore has praised his players' guts and character and they really need it now if they are to perform the miracle of staying up. They still have a six-point gap to safety and time is running out. Time for new signing Ryan Bird, who scored Saturday's winner, to rely fly.

Recommended Bet
Back Hartlepool @ 3.45n/a

Northampton 2.35/4 v Portsmouth 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

Confidence in Portsmouth to win on Saturday, having scored nine goals in four days, proved to be over-confidence. As the form table top two over six games (Pompey 14 points, Cobblers 13) they will both fancy their chances and the atmosphere promises to be terrific.

Some statistics could be a big pointer: Andy Awford's men conceded twice at Cambridge (winning 6-2) but before that away from home drew 1-1 twice, 0-0 twice and lost 1-0. A tight defence will again be needed in the gale force of Northampton's attack, especially if Marc Richards returns from injury to play alongside Ivan Toney, who returned on Saturday after three months out.

Chris Wilder's men do tend to score, drawing a blank once in 14 games. Portsmouth might be able to contain them and even if they can't Matt Tubbs might be able to engineer a goal. A draw is a distinct possibility even if it will enhance neither side's outside chance of a play-off bid.

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.55/2

Carlisle 2.47/5 v Cheltenham 3.39/4; the draw 3.55/2

When Carlisle have lost four games in a row and Cheltenham just seem to be suggesting signs of fresh impetus, the quoted odds make little sense.

Keith Curle's tenure at Carlisle began in a fanfare of good results, but the honeymoon didn't last long, replaced swiftly by hard graft not very good results.

It is Cheltenham's turn for the freshness of the new manager (again). Two positive results have followed the appointment of Russell Milton. New man. Confidence. Fresh impetus. Points. If it was that easy then a team would replace its manager every match and win the league!

New loan signings Pablo Mills, Matt Sparrow and Shaun Harrod have helped the Robins, one of several teams taking turns to be in 23rd position.

Curle calls on his team's fans to be brave. It's not the fans who will win matches. Cheltenham have that little bit of confidence which definitely made Monday's quote of 2.111/10 too short. You can understand why it has drifted to 2.47/5.

Recommended Bet
Lay Carlisle @ 2.47/5

Cambridge 2.8615/8 v York 2.89/5; the draw 3.55/2

The last time I took on York I regretted it, but Cambridge seem to have rediscovered their appetitie for league football, having registered their first win since their FA Cup exit to Manchester United. There was always going to be a turning point from that run. Two clean sheets were a start after a 6-2 drubbing at home to Portsmouth.

Ryan Donaldson will be looking for more goals, after scoring in the 2-0 win at Morecambe, and Luke Chadwick may return, while the U's still have four players out.

York have not scored in seven of their past nine games, grabbing a point at Luton and winning at Tranmere. They have not been ones for a hatful of goals and if Cambridge can keep a clean sheet again they can pinch a victory.

Recommended Bet
Back Cambridge @ 2.8615/8

P/L 2014-15

+3.21pt