Tennis bettors' focus in March should be on the two US-based Masters events held at Indian Wells (California) and Miami (Florida). This ATP Indian Wells and Miami tennis betting preview assesses the conditions and contenders for these lucrative and prestigious events.
Historical trends
Both tournaments have a 96 player field, and a prize pool in the region of $6m, meaning the ATP Indian Wells and Miami events are the closest events to Grand Slams.
Similarly to Grand Slams big prize funds and high ranking points virtually guarantee maximum player effort, and that typically, generates a high favourite win percentage. Below are a number of historical trends:
ATP Indian Wells (Last 10 years):
Nine winners have been seeded in the top 5.
Only four runners-up were seeded outside the top ten.
Novak Djokovic (3), Roger Federer (3) and Rafael Nadal (3) have won nine of the last ten events.
ATP Miami (Last 10 years):
No player seeded outside the top ten has won.
Only two winners seeded outside the top four seeds.
Only two runners-up were seeded outside the top ten.
Given the historical trends, an elite player is highly likely to win the two titles at Indian Wells and Miami.
With entry lists almost identical for both events, contenders are likely to be the same. Below are the hold/break percentages of the top ten ATP players on hard court in the last 12 months:
Player
Surface Hold %
Surface Break Opponent %
Combined %
Indian Wells Odds*
Djokovic
88.5
32
120.5
2.16
Federer
89.3
29.9
119.2
4.37
Nadal
85.6
28.6
114.2
10.28
Murray
81.2
32.8
114
7.3
Berdych
86
27.9
113.9
20.25
Ferrer
81
30.8
111.8
29.4
Nishikori
85.2
25.7
110.9
18.56
Cilic
87.6
21.4
109
24.33
Wawrinka
85.3
22.9
108.2
19.28
Raonic
91.8
14.5
106.3
25.5
Favourites expected to continue trend
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer lead the field - both in the combined hold/break percentage, and the ATP Indian Wells betting odds, so the market is fully justified in making them favourites.
Andy Murray, whose confidence will be sky-high having led Great Britain to Davis Cup success over the USA recently is third in the market, and his shorter price than Nadal, looks reasonable given the concerns over the Spaniard’s fitness.
The combined hold/break percentages of the remaining players are quite closely grouped but the slow surface may favour the likes of David Ferrer and Stan Wawrinka, and hamper the big-servers Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic.
Cilic in particular has struggled with injury and it would be a surprise if he made much of an impact at Indian Wells.
The stats below illustrate the historical match trends in the two ATP Masters events:
ATP
Venue Hold %
Completed Matches
2-0 Score
2-0 Win %
Favourite Wins
Favourite Wins %
Indian Wells
2012
77.9
89
50
56.2
67
75.3
2013
75.9
93
58
62.4
67
72
2014
78.2
90
51
56.7
67
74.4
3 Year Average
77.3
272
159
58.5
201
73.9
Miami
2012
77.5
90
65
72.2
68
75.6
2013
72.9
85
52
61.2
59
69.4
2014
79.4
90
58
64.4
66
69.5
3 Year Average
76.6
265
175
66
193
72.8
ATP Mean
79.9
64.8
Slow court speed hampers 'big servers'
We can see that the three-year average venue hold percentage for both events is significantly below the 79.9% ATP Hard Court service hold mean percentage, indicating that conditions in these events are likely to be very slow.
On that basis, backing traditional clay court players in the opening round at big prices may be a worthwhile prospect. In addition to this, opposing big-servers, who should see their major weapon negated, looks a solid proposition.
At Indian Wells, the straight sets win percentage is very low, - 6.3% below the ATP mean, while 2-0 scorelines in Miami were slightly more common than average. With favourites having a high win percentage, backing them to win by a 2-1 correct score at Indian Wells could be worth considering, as could backing underdogs to win +1.5 sets.
This data should give bettors a number of betting factors to consider, in addition to their own research, before betting on ATP Indian Wells and Miami.
Click here for the latest ATP odds.
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий