On May 2nd Floyd Mayweather fights Manny Pacquiao in the biggest fight in boxing history. This Mayweather vs. Pacquiao betting preview looks at factors to consider before betting, the odds, and our unique promotions.
Tale of the tape
Floyd Mayweather and Filipino, Manny Pacquiao are considered the best two fighters of their generation.
After years of talking the mega fight will finally see Floyd put his WBC and WBA welterweight titles on the line against Pacquiao's WBO at the MGM Grand.
Below are the head-to-head stats for each fighter:
Coming into the fight Pacquiao beat Chris Algieri on a unanimous points decision in November, but lost twice in 2013 - to Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez.
Mayweather meanwhile, whose unbeaten record stretches back to 1996, has won his past five bouts on points, most recently a rematch with Marcos Maidana in September.
Where the fight could be won and lost
Every boxing fan and bettor will have an opinion on where the fight could be won and lost. We’ve broken down a couple of key areas to see if there is an advantage for either fighter.
Does Mayweather struggle against Southpaw fighters?
Ever since Mayweather was originally accused of ‘ducking’ a fight with Pacquiao, there has been a stigma surrounding his ability to fight against southpaws.
Promoter Bob Arum was quoted, "I promoted the guy for 10 years, and I know how difficult it was to get him in the ring with any southpaw."
The reason behind the assumption is that Floyd pins his chin against his left shoulder and often stands with his front turned to his right.
This works well against an orthodox fighter as the power punches come from his right towards his left shoulder, which guards his chin.
The potential problem comes when the power punch comes from his left. Despite mastering the art of rolling to his right and then countering, his ageing years could make him more vulnerable.
However, he has been training with Zab Judah, so you can expect him to enter the ring with a plan.
Southpaw vs. Orthodox
Like other bouts that have seen a southpaw take-on an orthodox fighter the cross - Pacquiao’s straight left and Mayweather’s straight right – could be key in determining the fight.
The Pac Man is more powerful, but Floyd is more accurate, and more flexible in the way he throws it. The Filipino has also been known to overcommit as he aims to force the pace, which could leave him open to a counterpunch.
Mayweather is renowned for his great movement, and given Pacquiao struggled to tag good movers in the past - Timothy Bradley and Chris Algieri – he will need to keep Floyd guessing by throwing a number of feints.
Pacquiao’s Angles
The peculiar angles Pacquiao throws his punches from could cause problems for Floyd, like it has done for all of his other opponents. It didn’t affect Marquez recently, but that was his fourth attempt.
Determining how long it will take Mayweather to adjust could determine which way you bet.
Work rate vs. Accuracy
Judging accurately how each fighter's style will affect the other will help picking a winner.
Pacquiao is renowned for his relentless pressure, while Mayweather is revered for his passive stick and move style. Both are effective, but which will be more successful in this fight?
Many think Pac Man can't win on points, but if the judges favour work rate over accuracy, Floyd could be in trouble.
Manny will throw six punches to land one, while Floyd will be content to throw one or two more accurate punches. If he fails to tag Pacquiao, he could struggle to pick up points, making the 4.550 odds for Pacquiao to win on the judge's scorecard more promising.
Also will the Filipino’s work rate affect Mayweather like it did against Maidana in their rematch? Floyd resorted to excessive clinching on that night to neutralise Maidana's aggression, can he employ these tactics against a faster, fitter Pac Man?
Power
Power is a leveller in most fights. Mayweather may have the single punch speed advantage, but Pacquiao has the power.
The Pac Man has 38 knockouts in his 57 fights, compared to Mayweather's 26 in 47. Pacquiao is not necessarily a heavy puncher but he has a quick hard punch, which has dropped a number of elite fighters in the past.
However since his TKO win against Miguel Cotto in 2009, the Filipino hasn’t knocked out any of his 9 opponents, while Mayweather's last six fights have gone to the judges scorecard.
The Over/Under at Pinnacle Sports sees 11.5 rounds as the marker. Odds of 1.332 suggest the bookies strongly believe the fight will last the distance.
Mayweather to win on points at Pinnacle Sports is available at 1.840, which implies a 54.35% chance of happening.
Who has the best chin?
Both fighters’ chins have been tested throughout their careers, but Mayweather has yet to be knocked down.
In comparison Pacquiao has been knocked out three times, two of which came over 15 years ago, while the most recent was in 2012 at the hands of Mexican great, Juan Manual Marquez.
Mayweather undoubtedly has a solid chin, and following his knockout defeat against Marquez the Pac Man could be more vulnerable than ever.
Odds at pinnacle Sports give Floyd (6.960) a 14.37% chance of winning by KO, TKO or DQ, while Pacquiao is slightly shorter at 6.150.
Who wins if it turns into a war?
Pacquiao will certainly look to make this a war and drag Mayweather with him, much like Maidana did.
If it does turn in to a toe-to-toe brawl, Manny will be favoured given he has much more experience in this situation. Of course Mayweather will be aware of this and should be too clever to be drawn in.
Can either adjust their style?
It's one thing having a plan before the fight, but if things go wrong, boxers must adapt their style. Who if either, is best equipped to do this?
Pacquiao has fought on the front foot all of his career and has rarely had to make adjustments because his non-stop aggression and speed was enough to beat most.
However when facing boxers who have made him adjust, he has struggled – think Marques and Bradley.
Mayweather has shown the ability to make adjustments during a fight – against Zab Judah for instance.
What the odds say
Odds of 2.660 at Pinnacle Sports make Pacquiao the underdog, a position that he hasn’t been in since the Oscar De La Hoya fight in 2008.
Mayweather meanwhile is currently at 1.540 to remain undefeated. He opened at 1.498 this time, but when Pinnacle Sports offered odds back in 2012 ahead of a potential fight he opened at 1.529, which shows little has happened in the three years since, to change the bookmakers' opinion.
The draw can be backed at 17.00, and with the fight so lucrative it would almost certainly result in Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2.
The biggest fight gets the biggest promotion at Pinnacle Sports
The Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight is expected to generate in the region of £162m, making it the most lucrative in boxing history.
To celebrate Pinnacle Sports are offering a number of unique boxing promotions:
Boxing bettors may me split as to who will win between Mayweather and Pacquiao but one thing is guaranteed Pinnacle Sports will be offering the best odds, biggest limits and live betting come the first bell on May 2nd.
Click here to see the latest Mayweather vs. Pacquiao odds.
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