пятница, 13 марта 2015 г.

Ligue 1 Betting: Champions League heroes PSG set to serve up Sunday afternoon thriller

Blaise Matuidi was on target v Lens last weekend

After three winners from three selections last weekend, James Eastham picks out the smart bets in France ahead of the latest round of fixtures...

Monaco v Bastia (4th v 10th)
Fri, 19:30 GMT

Monaco have garnered plenty of attention since their 3-1 Champions League win at Arsenal but Bastia will be difficult to beat this weekend.

Under astute manager Ghislain Printant Bastia have edged away from the relegation zone and reached the League Cup final thanks to a run of just one defeat in their last 17 matches in all competitions (W8-D8-L1). They claimed their place in the League Cup final by beating Monaco on penalties in Monaco last month so have recent experience of avoiding defeat at Stade Louis II.

Monaco are also in excellent form but their home record is a moderate W5-D6-L2, and three of those five home wins were by a single-goal margin. The chances of Bastia avoiding a heavy defeat appear good so our Asian handicap selection makes sense.

For more on how Asian handicap betting works, check out this guide.

Recommended Bet
Bastia +1.0 Asian handicap @ 1.9520/21

Metz v St Etienne (20th v 5th)
Sat, 16:00 GMT

Hosts Metz are bottom of Ligue 1 and winless in 16 matches (W0-D4-L12). First-choice goalkeeper Johan Carrasso has been ruled out of this game by injury.

Visitors St Etienne are chasing a top-four spot so have everything to play for. They were convincing 2-0 winners over Lorient last weekend and will be confident of keeping a clean sheet this week as they have the division's joint second-best defensive record.

If St Etienne do shut out Metz then they have an excellent chance of winning as they've played quick, precise football on the break recently. The visitors are far from prolific - they have only the eighth-best attack in Ligue 1 - but may need only a couple of chances to claim the victory.

At odds-against, the visitors are a good selection.

Recommended Bet
St Etienne @ 2.26/5

Bordeaux v PSG (6th v 2nd)
Sun, 16:00 GMT
Live on BT Sports 2

Last weekend we made money backing both teams to score when Bordeaux faced Caen. This weekend we're making the same selection as Bordeaux host PSG.

Bordeaux manager Willy Sagnol has lost some of the idealism he displayed in the way he set-up his side during the first-half of the season but if you were to label him either an attack- or defensive-minded manager you'd go with the former. Sagnol's the sort of coach that will see facing PSG just days after their sensational Champions League victory over Chelsea as an opportunity rather than a burden, because he'll believe Bordeaux can take advantage of fatigue in the PSG ranks rather than worrying excessively about the PSG players arriving on a high.

Sagnol generally wants his side to try to outscore the opposition rather than prioritising a clean sheet. The stats bear this out - both teams have scored in 22 of Bordeaux's 32 matches (69%) in all competitions.

PSG have scored in 16 of their last 17 matches in all competitions, conceding in six of their last nine.

Recommended Bet
'Yes' in Both Teams to Score? market @ 2.01/1

2014-15 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 93pts
Returned: 98.81pts
P/L: +5.81pts

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