Berdych can blast his way to the latter stages in Miami
Masters 1000 tennis continues this week as the ATP World Tour moves on to Miami and tennis expert Sean Calvert looks for some outright value at the 2015 Miami Open...
We signed off from what's always a tricky week in the desert at Indian Wells with a superb day that produced a couple of big-priced winners and the tour now heads to Miami.
Well, Key Biscayne to be precise, and the Crandon Park courts that are slow and the perfect conditions for Novak Djokovic to land back-to-back Masters 1000 titles.
I said in my players to watch preview a few weeks ago that this Laykold surface is one for the defenders and with Andy Murray looking impotent against the very best at the moment and Roger Federer missing it looks a fine opportunity for Djokovic again.
There will be no high bounces to aid John Isner and co. this week and those on Djokovic at a short price this week will probably walk away with a profit again.
But, no one needs me to tell them that the Serb will most likely win this tournament and once again I'm on the hunt for a viable back-to-lay option.
It didn't quite work last week with Stan Wawrinka, who had a shocker, but who does have a nice draw away from Djokovic in which to try and redeem himself in Key Biscayne.
Indeed, Wawrinka is one option in a bottom half of the draw that looks very open, but he is yet to better the last-16 in Miami and others are preferred as back-to-lay shots after the Indian Wells debacle at the hands of Robin Haase.
Stan also may well have a tough opener against Thanasi Kokkinakis and that mini-section of 16 appears tough to call.
Feli Lopez hasn't been past the last-32 at Crandon Park since 2007 and perhaps Adrian Mannarino, Kokkinakis or Joao Sousa could be ones to make a surprise run in that section of the draw?
Murray can't help but like his draw at the bottom of Wawrinka's quarter and back on familiar ground in Miami the Scot has been given a good chance to go deep in a second straight Masters 1000.
The former champion faces opponents of the calibre of Santi Giraldo, Yen-Hsun Lu, Donald Young, Leo Mayer, Sam Querrey, Marinko Matosevic and Jarkko Nieminen ahead of a potential last-16 clash with Kevin Anderson, who may be a reasonable shout to make the quarters here again.
Murray has had some trouble with the South African in the past and Anderson looks the only one capable of stopping the Scot ahead of the last eight, although looking at that draw Murray should make the semi-finals at least.
If successful in that goal Murray would most likely face either Rafa Nadal or Tomas Berdych in the last four and it could be worth taking a chance on the Czech here.
As ever with Berdych we see superb performances mixed in with some really poor stuff and the feeling that he can only really dish it out against lower-ranked opponents prevails with Tomas.
That said, he can pop up and beat the best on occasion, and he did take an admittedly rusty Nadal out comfortably in Melbourne and there's no real reason why he can't do it again in slower conditions.
Nadal and Berdych were set to clash in the semis here a year ago, but the latter pulled out, and there are still big question marks over the Spaniard's fitness at the moment.
Beaten by Milos Raonic for the first time at Indian Wells last week Nadal hasn't beaten a top-10 opponent on a hard court since January 2014 and only twice has he beaten a top-20 player in any conditions since last year's French Open.
The Spaniard has never won the Miami Open and unless something happens to Djokovic I can't see that record changing in 2015, plus reports from training in Miami have talked of a foot/ankle injury to Nadal that saw him cut a practice session short.
Berdych at around 26.025/1 and Murray at around 6.611/2 will be popular choices and rightly so given their draw and Anderson at 200.0199/1 holds some potential value.
I've overlooked the top half rather, but with Djokovic losing just one match here since 2010 in a run of 18-1, it looks fanciful to oppose him at this venue in these conditions.
Tommy Haas is the only man to have beaten the Serb here in that time and looking at the draw I would suggest that only Kei Nishikori is really capable of beating Djokovic ahead of the final.
I didn't fancy the Japanese star at all last week at Indian Wells given he has always struggled at the venue, but back in familiar territory in Florida he or Raonic look the likely semi-finalists.
I don't see Raonic beating Djokovic any time soon and not in these conditions, so Nishikori looks the best alternative wager to the Serb in a half that also sees Juan Martin Del Potro make his return to the tour.
The Argentine has been struggling with a wrist problem for a while and it's good to see him back, along with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who also returns here, and hopefully he'll stay injury-free for the foreseeable future.
In a tournament where we really need Djokovic to slip up Berdych offers the best back-to-lay value, with the Czech drawn to face nobody he can't bully until at least the quarters and possibly the final.
The Czech would have every chance against Nadal in the last eight if that match happened and then it's up for grabs in the last four, but Djokovic looks a very solid favourite.
Recommended Bet
Back to lay Berdych to win Miami at 26.025/1
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